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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Cash Flow Concerns and Policy Solutions
Farmers across the US are facing their worst cash flow crisis since the 1980s as grain prices plummet while input costs continue to rise. The situation is creating a growing divide between established producers who can weather the storm and younger farmers who may not survive financially.
• North Dakota and Texas farmers experiencing "no bid" situations for soybeans and sorghum
• USDA announcing a top-up payment for the ECAP program within 45 days
• Potential for advanced 2025 crop payments to provide crucial cash flow relief
• Farm Bill 2.0 facing political hurdles but gaining momentum in Congress
• Year-round E15 authorization could eventually increase corn demand by 450 million bushels
• Brazilian soybeans flooding into China while American farmers struggle to find markets
• Labor shortages and rising costs creating additional pressure on farm operations
• Regulatory relief and immigration reform critical for agricultural sustainability
• Farmers watching for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September
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Thank you, Tommy G
welcome back round two tommy grisafi, here coming to you. Live from dodge city, kansas, here. What do we have a show for you, not only in in Dodge City, that's tomorrow. We have three spots left If you're anywhere near Dodge City. You got to make it out. We got a great day planned, dm, one of us over at Nesbitt Trading, we'll make sure you get that. Let's bring in the star of the show, mr Jim Wiesmeyer. Jim, you've been a busy man. You've been traveling. The stage is yours.
Speaker 1:Let's knock off the bullshit and get right to what you know, my friend, okay Well, I was in Stillwater, beautiful Stillwater, minnesota, minnesota Ag Leadership Conference meeting and three of the four principals on the House and Senate Ag Committee were there Senator Klobuchar, gt Thompson, house Ag Committee and Angie Craig, the ranking member and they heard what I heard from there that we have low grain prices not cattle or hogs, but low grain prices. And they were asking can we have some advanced 2025 crop farm program payments, because right now they won't get them until October 2026. So look for a legislative push for that one, tommy. That could give some needed cash flow. But USDA also had some good news for them. Within 45 days there's going to be what we call a top-up payment for the ECAP program. That's the Economic Assistance Package that's paying out $10 billion. $8 billion has already been paid, so they've got some cushion there. So they're going to get a top up payment.
Speaker 2:I like it. I like it. I like it a lot. Now, what did people? Can you hear me better, joe? I had the wrong mic on. I was talking. Look it like I've never done this before. My brother had to text me. He's like you're using your mic in your laptop, all right. How are the attitude of farmers, jim?
Speaker 1:Apprehensive. Now in Minnesota, not in all parts, you know that, but in a number, most of the areas they're having a good crop, especially corn. You know beans. We're going into the time We'll see, but actually in some locations they've had too much rain. I don't usually hear that. But the cash flow concern I have never seen since the 80s. I don't think we're as bad as the 80s. We have crop insurance programs that we didn't have in the 80s and I't think we're as bad as the 80s. We have crop insurance programs that we didn't have in the 80s and I think farmers learned a lot from the 80s, at least the older ones.
Speaker 1:But I have never seen the difference between those farmers who are going to get by with low prices versus those who may not be able to, and usually it's the younger farmers. It's out there there's a growing world of hurt. There were some sorghum or milo farmers there and they told me in the panhandle of Texas next year they could lose a million acres of sorghum to corn because of the price crash for sorghum relative to corn. So yeah, it's just when you've got basis for, like the Dakotas, for corn what? 90 to a buck 10 under. That's a world of hurt out there when you have those rising costs.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and you know I had the opportunity to meet Secretary of Ag Rollins on Monday over at RFD. Big shout out to the folks at RFD who allowed me in there and she said that on TV. She didn't hold back. She definitely said that there's a problem. But the one thing I know I've said in these meetings I've been invited to meetings in North Dakota with the senators and when they give away money they give it a blanket. They'll say we're giving 80 cents for corn, $1.20 for beans. They don't give you the part back for the butt kicking of the basis. Is that correct, jim?
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, well, yeah, it's just that's a flat number. Yeah, that's no variable there. That's an interesting point. I'm going to ask him about that. Yeah, it's hard. When you have an assistance program, how do you direct it to the truly needy? How do you define that? You know that's a loaded term, because some farmers are better managers of their operations, so should they be penalized for being good stewards?
Speaker 2:No, they just get to buy a new F-350 with the government money, right? So, hey Jim, we got breaking news, I understand, or almost breaking news. We got some heavy price action today in bean oil. What's the rub over there in bean oil, what are you hearing? Or soybeans?
Speaker 1:Well, the emails I'm getting, if there's a government angle they're wanting to know. They've heard that EPA looks like by the end of the week they're going to come out with their decisions on all those small refinery exemptions. Now, if it's up, that means that they're not going to approve that many, because most people thought that they would approve more than a few of those exemptions and that would be negative for soybean oil. But that's the only government angle I can get at, because other than that, it would be a trade agreement between Trump and Xi Jinping. But I don't think we're going to see that until the end of the year. But I don't think we're going to see that until the end of the year.
Speaker 2:Okay, let me check real quick here on the bean oil price. The markets are rallying a little bit today. Overall, the stock market's been coming down the last few days. It's down a little bit today Upon recording this. These corns up 5.409, call it 4.10. No, soybeans 10.48 and a half, we'll call it 10.50. Soybean oil up 200 little baby ticks. So nice day there in soybean oil. No one's upset about that. A little strength in the wheat Oats are lower Feeder cattle all over the place.
Speaker 1:Any talk of cattle where you were. That's just not cattle country. There were a few cattle questions on what's the concern and I told them on the demand side they want to know when the top is going to be in cattle because they know eventually we'll see the top. But a cattle producer will tell you they're watching the demand both on the export front but on the domestic demand. But now with that 50% tariff being put on Brazil, we import more than a few pounds of hamburger from Brazil. So you're going to see upward thrust pressure for hamburger prices in US supermarkets. So that's a concern because it'll have the consumers pulling back.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Speaking of that, I woke up, I have CNBC. I'm staying at a hotel here in Dodge City, but I noticed Walmart came out with earnings and they said we're trying our damnedest to keep prices low, but we're going to have to start past month, and I think that ties in to what you just said, correct.
Speaker 1:Yes, and you're seeing increasingly so. The producer price. The consumer price index is not yet reflecting what some analysts have said for months was going to be the negative impact on these tariffs. But the wholesale price index when it came out last week was the first solid indication that a number of companies had built off their inventory and were starting, just beginning to put some upward pressure on prices. And I think you're going to see that over the next few months.
Speaker 1:And this is what the Federal Reserve is worried about. You saw it in the FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee, meeting. You know minutes from the last meeting of that. There was differences on the impacts of the tariffs and we've got Fed Chairman Jerome J Powell in Jackson Hole, wyoming, giving a speech tomorrow. So we'll be curious the financial markets will really listen to what he says relative to tariffs. But bottom line, I think you are going to see some upward pressure on consumer price index. But the relatively lower energy prices could soften that impact. And you're seeing egg prices. Look how dramatically they've come down since the highs of what? Over $6 for a carton of eggs.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they definitely got after that. I'm worried about a headline risk for cattle. I'm worried about them. They did that big announcement last Friday about screwworm, everything they're doing in Texas. It's not a matter of if, Jim, it's a matter of when if it's not already here, correct?
Speaker 1:That's what people say, because it's not that far from the border. But even if we get it which I hope we don't get it's not going to be like a like bird flu, because it's just the the there there's no damage to the meat and hopefully you can contain it. Brooke Rollins mentioned $750 million. They're throwing at the problem, but that's going to take a while to get these additional 300 million flies. It's going to take a good year or so to get it, but the history is showing that it's going further and further north. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And it can travel on mammals. And we have a hard time controlling our border with a fence and these little critters get to go right around the fence. So no sarcasm there, let's get into our headlines. You sent us a bunch of talking points. We might have already touched on one or two. Before we do that, I want to tell people how to sign up for you. You have a newsletter that comes out minimum once a day, sometimes multiple times a day, right here. Jim Wiesmeyer, w-i-e-s-e-m-e-y-e-r Wiesmeyer at gmailcom.
Speaker 1:How do you like that commercial for you? You like that? That's good. Thank you. Yeah, it's called Updates and I try to package what you've known, tommy. I try to build a package of the financial markets because interest rates are so important in the ag sector. So we look at the equities, we look at the bond market, we look at, of course, farm policy because of where the next payment's going to come from the farm bill. Are we going to get a farm bill 2.0? We can get involved in that. And then various market topics. Like you know, this morning was all the soybeans that Brazil sold to China in the month of July, and I know that's not pleasing to the American Soybean Association. We'll get into that later because they fired off a letter to President Trump on Tuesday saying, hey, we need a trade agreement with China because we're sinking here from US soybeans going to China.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think I got a picture of that. Now you said this isn't a kid, this is not his best picture. Who the hell put this on?
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's the grower head of the American Soybean Association. Yeah, he penned that letter to Trump saying please, please, please. We need trade agreements, but especially with China, because they're buying a few, if any, us soybeans right now. So I do think that we will have an agreement. But the longer you go, if it's not in place by November, with enforcement mechanisms, it's getting harder to impact the trade flow. But here's what some China watchers tell me Just because they're importing so many Brazilian soybeans right now, if we do have an agreement with China, they could still come in in a big way to purchase US soybeans to build up their stocks, tommy, and also also they could use their own soybeans for food aid to a number of their countries, because China's big on food aid right now, and then they could replenish those with US soybeans. So it's not as negative, even though we potentially will get a trade agreement later rather than sooner with China.
Speaker 2:But on the physicalness, like we're virtual, I'm in a hotel, You're in DC, we're doing this virtual the physicalness of ordering a train and getting it to Alton Grain Terminal right there on Route 29 and farmers from central North Dakota right there in the Red River Valley they use soybeans as their cash crop at harvest. There's talk in North Dakota. We're going no bid, Not you got to sell them at a horrible price. No bid. That is so different than I lost a dollar because of our trade policies. We're going to write you a check for a dollar. It's worse than that. Up there in particular, they've lost the dollar and they've lost the basis and you just don't get to snap your finger, order a train and load up a boat, Correct, Jim?
Speaker 1:Absolutely, and I haven't seen that for years. And remember I mentioned Sorghum and Milo. The same situation in South Texas. They're not getting any bids for Milo and you talk about a Debbie, debbie downer for you know, you know for a producer. Uh, so we need a number of things to throw this thing around to the upside. First, you got to put the lows in. You know that, tommy, I don't know whether we've we've seen the lows. We got to test the lows maybe one more time. Then what's the upside is an upside limited from what we know right now.
Speaker 2:So we have too much, too many acres, too many bushels, not enough friends in the business. Uh, let's go through the slides. I think we covered this right. This was some of your talking points. Yes, prices, we're banging that out right now. Letter to trump. We did that, I'm just going through it. Price is low cost rising. That's a problem.
Speaker 1:Look at the look the series of costs. I think we have a table on the cost side. The labor cost is one that you hear from any producers or ranchers, even how to find labor and then how to keep them. And then usually a farmer will ask you is there any chance for immigration reform Now that we have the border secure and it's secure reform? Now that we have the border secure and it's secure, we have zero people coming across that border illegally. So now both Democrats and Republicans have said for years once we get the border secure, then we can talk about immigration reform. But I tell the farmers you have to convince a deputy policy staff member that Trump listens to a lot Stephen Miller, because I don't think he wants an immigration reform bill.
Speaker 2:So Trump's going to have to. The old Trump friend, look at that.
Speaker 1:It's an old picture because his daughter's behind him and she's not part of the administration right now, but he should listen to Brooke Rollins who says they have to really soup up the H-2A program and so maybe by the end of the year we'll have a true immigration reform. But on the cost side, not only labor costs, fertilizer and input prices you hear that anywhere you go. And of course, canada we're putting a 10% tariff on Canadian fertilizer.
Speaker 2:I've been listening to when I've been driving. I'm a big fan of RFD, obviously I'm partnered with them, but I've been listening to Real Ag, your little buddy, sean Haney and his crew Are they good Folks? If you need something and you're driving, listen to XM Radio. They'll have all the shows on there. But my friend, tony St James got the cow guy. Real Agriculture. You can go to realagriculturecom. Sean's a friend of all of ours, but it's not just us. The reason I'm asking people to go listen to Real Agriculture why am I driving through Kansas listening to Real Agriculture? Because it makes me realize again. My clients in North Dakota guess what they're harvesting a bunch of right now and they're super upset. The price is low Canola. It's not just a Canadian thing, it's an American thing, and what they keep saying on real agriculture is probably China did this to Canada just to let the world know we can go somewhere else.
Speaker 1:So I believe they went to Australia for the canola, australia for sure, yeah, there's a test shipment going on and trust me it'll be good. Australia, for sure, yeah, there's a test, there's a test shipment going on and trust me it'll be good. So they'll. Yeah, china does those things, they're there, they have an economic might there on that. And then even on the other cost side, of course, you always have equipment and maintenance there and I've seen that over the years. And when you're in a down year in the grains, the difference between getting by and not getting back by frequently and I'm not anti-equipment company at all, but the difference in many of those years is whether or not you bought new equipment or used equipment. And with the financing, with interest rates so high, especially for young farmers, that's too much to chew. That's when I went into the financing cost. We need to get these rates down. Land rents they're not good. They're not going down if they are, hardly at all. If not, they're going up Regulatory and compliance cost.
Speaker 1:But there is a bit of big news coming, or better news, because Trump is deregulation mode. He showed that during his first term and he's doubling down on unfunded mandates. Most regulations are unfunded mandates. They're taxes, they're like taxes. So that's going to get better over time. And the last one is insurance, risk management and health costs. I don't have to tell you that rural health costs are sky high and your rural health centers. You have to go pretty far in some cases to just get health service, so you add that up. That's why we're in a cost price squeeze. We've had those over the years, and so what's going to bring prices up? Well, maybe a lower crop than expected from USDA. In a not too distant future we're going to get another update or a US-China trade agreement, something to put the lows in, at least to get the upside in there. So let's hope that happens sooner rather than later.
Speaker 2:Let's keep going over the notes and I think you just I'll go back to a slide after we got a few of these Year-round E15. What's this, jim?
Speaker 1:When I was in Minnesota. Wherever I go in country, that's one of the biggest policy issues that they want. They don't want a temporary announcement like what we've had under both Biden and Trump. They want a legislation, codify it in Congress and we almost had it last year. Then it was yanked out. Angie Craig, when she was in Stillwater, says she'll insist on this. By the end of the year They'll hopefully put it in a must-pass bill again, a funding bill, et cetera. They could put it in maybe Farm Bill 2.0. I don't know whether it's in their jurisdiction for that one.
Speaker 1:But what impact does year-round E15 have? The corn growers say eventually it could lead to an additional 450 million bushels of corn demand. We've got to utilize domestically more of the corn and soybeans. Because we've discussed trade policy, tommy, we're not getting these robust trade agreements yet, so use more domestically. But I also told them in Minnesota look to California. California is the only state right now that doesn't even. You can't even use E15 at all in the state of California. But the government there, through what we call CARB in the state office, is currently researching E15. And that could give another shot in the corn utilization of E15. I think it's eventually coming, and so that's just another checkmark in domestic utilization to use more, because we got to get rid of this stuff.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we do have too much. We do A couple more headlines. What do you got for here? Immigration reform bill Did we already cover that?
Speaker 1:Already covered. Basically you've got to deal with Stephen Miller, the deputy policy staff, because he's been a thorn on this one, the deputy policy staff, because he's been a thorn on this one. But I think the atmosphere now is about the best it's been for years With a secure border. You have President Trump, if he hears it from and he does from Brooke Rollins. Like you know, we got to get more labor on this farm and keep them there. So that gets into your deportation battle where the President Trump says he wants to be more flexible when it comes to farm labor.
Speaker 1:But I guess we could go into the Farm Bill 2.0, because I heard that in spades in Minnesota with Craig there and GT Thompson and Klobuchar. The will is there. What I told them is I think it could be coming out of the House and Senate Ag Committee, but they're going to have trouble on the House floor. I think the Senate. I think John Thune, who's the Senate Majority Leader at Dakota Fest, said yesterday I guess it was that he thinks he can get to 60 votes. Okay, I'll give him that.
Speaker 1:But it's the House, because you're going to have about 50 or 60 House Republicans who probably won't vote for the Farm Bill 2.0, also called the so-called skinny bill. But so you need Democrats, and Angie Craig, the ranking member on the House Ag Committee, said you know we've got some very negative feelings on how that reconciliation bill went. That's the one big beautiful bill act and we're going to have to have some stuff on our side to have some skin in the game. So there's the test whether or not you can have a true bipartisan approach to Farm Bill 2.0. I think it could be if both parties, both farm state lawmakers from both political parties, get together and throw out some more economic aid and let the Democrats also get authorship of that, because they didn't, in the bill you had December 21 last year, the $10 billion economic aid that could get more than a few Democrats to vote. Because of what we said earlier, there's a cash flow problem in farm country.
Speaker 2:Big time, Big time, yeah. And the Board of Trades rallying today. Big shout out to the folks there on LaSalle Street. We got corn up six, beans up 12. Jim, we could go corn up six beans up 12 for 10 days. That would just be starting to fix how bad this is.
Speaker 2:If you're listening, ask Jim or myself a question. Obviously, if we don't get to it, you can always call us. You can get a hold of Jim. Jim makes it super easy to get a hold of him. Sign up for Jim's newsletter. It's right here, Jim Wiesmeyer. Wiesmeyer at Gmail. He puts the links to this latest video podcast, the Ag Bowl stuff. Real quick as far as Ag Bowl. How do you consume this content? If you missed it? Well, it's simple. I'll show you how. Thanks for watching, Thanks for listening. We'd love for you to like and subscribe. And while you're at it, why don't you go to our social media platforms? We're on all of them at Agbo Media. It's that easy, Jim. All right, let's take it from the top. I do see questions coming in. I think you went over all this. Let's talk about it and just review Things. To consider Labor costs. It's a problem correct.
Speaker 1:Yes, oh, absolutely Going up and we need a significant increase in H2A and also farmers are having to pay a lot for those per hour rates there. So that's a drain as well. And fertilizer prices and other input prices. We've said those fertilizer prices are really ratcheting up again and we mentioned the equipment and maintenance purchases, finances, pure interest rates.
Speaker 1:We need the Federal Reserve to start looking at the data. We need the Federal Reserve to start looking at the data and I think September 29th and 30th at the FOMC we're going to get probably a 25 basis point cut, maybe a 50, but the market's figuring 25 basis point cut Fed Chairman Jerome J Powell on Friday to see how many additional cuts could yet come out this year. The market's debating whether or not there'll be one or two additional cuts in interest rates, land rents they are what they are. They haven't gone down that much, if at all. Regulatory and compliance costs are always a drain, but help is on the way on there because Trump is very and his cabinet is very deregulatory in design and, of course, insurance risk management costs are going up and healthcare costs. Any Americans know if they have to pay for health that the cost of you know risen dramatically.
Speaker 2:Well said there, youngster. You know, my wife and I are fixing up our home and we're not sure if we're going to keep it or sell it. It's not that I can't afford it, it's that I'm not there a lot and so I'm paying for, like you got the big beautiful bill. I get the big beautiful home, I don't get to use it. I don't get to sit in the backyard, I don't get to look at the landscaping why the hell do I have it? And my insurance has exploded on it. I'm ready to become a renter and I do rent. I currently rent in downtown Nashville, but I'm thinking about I put more marble in my four bathrooms. I told my sister that I want to be buried there.
Speaker 2:Tommy, you made it look like you ever see when Obama was teasing Trump during that. It's probably what got Trump to run when President Obama embarrassed President Trump during the press corps annual dinner and he did the White House all in glitter. If Trump was president, we'd all have diamonds and this and that and sparkles, and oh God, love him or hate him. This is our president of the United States and I love the United States. You can all have your own opinion about the president.
Speaker 2:Okay, we're going to go into questions, but I do have one strange thing I want to bring up as a market guy, as someone who trades at the board, someone who owns a seat at the board. What the heck was this last night? I'll read it to you, to all you, because I know some of you are listening on the podcast, and thank you for listening Together. Our event-based products will appeal to the growing public interest in markets and we will provide education to attract a new generation of potential traders not active in derivative today. Terry Duffy Now Terry is a good man. He does a great job of representing the CME. Did the CME group just partner with the sports betting?
Speaker 1:It looks like they did. I wanted to research this, so I didn't write about it this morning. I want to be factual on it, but if it's true, you mean you still do that.
Speaker 2:There's still people who are factual. You're not a cut and paster.
Speaker 1:There is not many out there anymore.
Speaker 2:Let me tell you.
Speaker 1:Especially in the news operation. The only one I trust is really Brett Baer on Fox to tell you the truth. Not the Hannity's, but Brett Baer.
Speaker 2:Have you ever met Brett Baer, or are you just like him?
Speaker 1:I've seen him. I've seen him and I'm telling you he's the best on television. But if that's true, tommy, it just would bring more liquidity into the market and you know, as a trader, you know the more liquidity you have and the more potential volatility. You know, traders like volatility. I like that. Yeah, yes, and the more potential volatility.
Speaker 2:You know, traders like volatility. I like that, yeah, yes, all right, we got a really good question. This is from a friend, luke. He's been a friend of the show forever. I'm going to plop it up there. He might have been on his tractor plopping this out, so let's see if this makes sense here. Can you see that, jim?
Speaker 1:EPA administrators raised the question of emissions deregulation. Will EPA shift to an overall emissions regulation rather than tailpipe alone? Emission parts warranty costs a ton on equipment and vehicles. I totally agree with you and I will tell you the odds are at least pretty good. The reason I have never seen in my ever since the EPA started under President Nixon by the way he created the EPA I have never seen an EPA administrator at the top of EPA as ag and energy friendly as Lee Zeldin. He's the EPA administrator, so at least the atmosphere is right, luke, on that question Okay.
Speaker 2:Very good. Well, you wanted to go a half hour. We're at a half hour. Let's take a moment for station identification. I want you to subscribe to the one and only. Jim Wiesmeyer, how do you describe your newsletter?
Speaker 1:It's a digital ag newspaper, basically.
Speaker 2:I'm clicking buttons there. It is right there and it comes out daily, but sometimes multiple times a day.
Speaker 1:Well, if there is a special report that needs to be put out that that doesn't fit the overall and I don't want to bury it in the updates then I'll put out a special. Like if EPA came out with a special with, with, with a small refinery exemption, I'd probably put out another report today. But other than that, I go to my friendly bar and then come back and watch the Brett Baer show and get ready for Trump's social media tirades in the evening and have to get ready for the next day.
Speaker 2:For those of you listening on Apple, Spotify, Buzzsprout, however, you get your digital podcast. That's Wiesmeyer. Spell it out. Jim, you put the nursery rhyme. Let's go from the top W-I-E-S-E-M-E-Y-E-R.
Speaker 1:At gmailcom. Every other letter is an E, except at the beginning. That's how I learned it as a kid. That's how you subscribe.
Speaker 2:Jim Wiesmeyer, coming to you from DC. Tommy Grisafi in Dodge City, kansas. Folks, we've got a few more spots open. If you'd like to make it out here, we'd love to have you. I'm clicking buttons. Nothing's moving. I will be able to end the show, jim. I want to keep going and I can't wait until next week. I will get this up on podcast form here in the next half hour and I here in the next half hour, and I just want to say from the bottom of my heart it's an absolute privilege to work with you.
Speaker 1:Oh, it's always good to work with you now and maybe Wednesday or Thursday next week. We haven't decided yet. We're going to shoot for Wednesdays.
Speaker 2:We'll always try to go Wednesday live. If not, we'll record it and we'll release it. Maybe you know, maybe we record it Wednesday night and release it Thursday. We're trying to be consistent. But you're out there public speaking, I'm out there public speaking, um, I will not special note. I will not be able to go live next week with you during the day because I will be hosting cow guy clothes from 12 30 to 1 30 on rfd tv and I have to do my day job prep for that. So we definitely will have to like record it tuesday night, release it wednesday at this time.
Speaker 2:We'll work it out we'll work, work, yes, sir, we will. All right Until next time. Tommy Grisafi, jim Weissmeyer, weissmeyer's perspectives, see everyone.
