AG Bull
Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
AG Bull
From Dodge City to DC: Agricultural Markets in Crisis While Wall Street Soars
The stark contrast between all-time stock market highs and multi-year lows in agricultural commodity prices creates significant challenges for farmers despite good-looking crops in the field.
• Soybean basis running $1.50-1.60 under futures prices in some areas with warnings of potential "no bid" situations
• Zero soybean sales to China as American Soybean Association urges administration to prioritize soybeans in trade negotiations
• Secretary of Agriculture acknowledges farm economy stress while USDA implements risk management program changes
• Canada removes some regulatory tariffs on US goods while maintaining auto, steel and aluminum tariffs
• CME Group partners with FanDuel, potentially creating betting markets on agricultural metrics like crop yields
• Cattle markets reach record highs while wheat faces poor basis and demand challenges
• Big Iron Farm Show scheduled for September 9-11 in West Fargo featuring market analyst discussions
Call us at 1-855-737-FARM or visit rrfn.com to subscribe to the weekly Farm Net News e-newsletter published every Monday.
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Thank you, Tommy G
Well, happy Friday everyone. Tom Grisafi and Mr Don Wick I just got to get him in the show. There he is. Hey, I'm working remote. I'm in Dodge City today. Dodge City, kansas. Oh, it's the stories we could tell you here, mr Wick, but in all your travels you've never been here. Is that correct?
Speaker 2:I have never made it to Dodge City no. Cattle country.
Speaker 1:Big time cattle country, nesvik Trading and people I'm associated with. Here. We're doing a meeting on markets and cattle and weather Should be good. So this is the Week in Review with Tommy Grisafi, don Wick, red River Farm Network. Lots to talk about Big action. The markets DC's a little quieter. Let me just start off with saying, upon recording this here, friday afternoon, the Dow Jones is up 900. Looks like they're going to lower interest rates right into the stock market all-time highs. That's interesting. It's got people Don in agriculture very mixed. They see the wealth coming in the stock market and they say where's ours? As commodity prices are at multi-year lows, what are you hearing about the attitude of the farmer?
Speaker 2:I think we're looking at a pretty decent crop. I think farmers always appreciate having a good-looking crop in the field, but they know they've got to worry about what they're going to do and how they're going to market it. This fall Base is kind of pretty ugly at this point, at least in our footprint, and we've had some pretty persistent rains, but the forecast looks good. Farmers are still the eternal optimists, though, tommy. Every time I talk to them there's always something good that we can find to talk about.
Speaker 1:Yeah, absolutely that basis. We got to touch on that a little bit, don. Clients start to call me $1.50 under in beans. $1.60 under in beans possibly going no bid. Hopefully it gets better before it gets worse. I had the chance to visit with Jim Wiesmeyer yesterday. He said he thought we'd have a trade deal done, but maybe not till the end of this year or next year. Who's going to make up the money? And it's kind of an unanswerable question, but as the stock market makes all-time highs, the amount of money flowing in the ag has never been lower. Who's going to make up that difference, don?
Speaker 2:That's a very good question. I wish I had the answer. You talk about that interest rates, the Fed having that meeting in Jackson Hole this week, jerome Powell ending the week with his conversation. While he talked about the possibility of slashing interest rates, he also wanted to make sure that some of the work that's being done by the Trump administration is this a short-term thing? The tariffs, the tax changes, some of the policy adjustments we're doing is that a short-term thing or is it more of a has a lasting impact? That seemed to be kind of a parting shot for the Trump administration. This is going to be the final Jackson Hole Conference. This is always a big event for the Fed and likely will be the last one with Jerome Paul as chair.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it looks like old Jay Powell is out as Fed chairman, but who's going to be the new one? Um, you know, the working for the boss isn't easy. The uh uh. Not that the Fed has a boss, but the uh, el Presidente. I had a dream. I got to tell you this. It uh, I, uh. I had a dream last night that I was at a meet and greet with president Trump. Okay, I went to shake his hand and I said nice to, and he turned and yelled at me and he said you'll address me by President of the United States. And I was so disappointed when I woke up and I called him President, but he didn't hear it right. But it was even weirder than that. He was wearing shorts, so he had his coat on and everything else, and the Secret Service brought us in. But wait, there's more. It gets even weirder than that. After the meet and greet I went to get my picture and they said he told the secret service not to give me a picture because I didn't call him president.
Speaker 1:So this was all a dream. None of this was real. But I'm telling you, I woke up, I'm like I don't know what I did wrong and then I realized it was a dream. You ever have dreams like that, don yeah, we always have to me.
Speaker 2:I'm a radio guy, so it's always like, uh, your script goes away and the mic's open, or, you know, equipment doesn't want to work. Those are the dreams that radio guys have.
Speaker 1:Oh God, yeah, I don't know. So anyway, maybe sometime I don't know when I'm doing stuff at RFD or anytime I get to interview them, who knows, it's maybe not All. Next week I'll be on RFD. I'll be hosting Cowguy 1230 to 130, filling in for Scott. Of course you're doing this every day, all day. Any news out of DC, Mr Wick?
Speaker 2:I know they're kind of they're on recess, so everybody's back in the district. Minnesota Corn Growers holds this event every year and they call it an ag leadership event, but they bring in all the big dogs. They had JT Thompson and Angie Craig there on Monday and most of the Minnesota congressional delegation there on Tuesday, as well as some of the other ag leaders groups like the from the Rice USA and some of the Southern Crops were represented at that meeting as well. It's kind of a closed-door meeting members of the media not invited to this particular event. But it's, I guess, just interesting to see that GT and Angie Craig sitting down at the same table. Just hearing from some of the farmers that were in the room, they said that there was some disagreement on what's going to happen with the farm bill. The Democrats are going to have to get some concessions from the Republicans to get the votes. They'll need to pass a Farm Bill this fall.
Speaker 1:Interesting A lot of people. I had the opportunity to meet the Secretary of Agriculture this week. That was fun. I didn't get to ask any questions. She zoomed in to RFD, did a good interview. I thought she was very honest. She talked about the stress in the farm economy and then we did a little chat and meet and greet and pictures she actually maybe that's where that- dream came from.
Speaker 2:She was supposed to be at Dakota Fest this week and it sounds like they had some weather problems in Texas. She couldn't make the flight out.
Speaker 1:It's funny because I asked her a security detail how they fly. Like, do you go to the airport and just you know, is there a plane waiting for you? And they're like no, we fly commercial everywhere. Um, so that's our tax dollars at work. She's aware of the situation. Can she do anything about it then? Can secretary rollins do anything about the current situation?
Speaker 2:it's very difficult, but what they can do is make some some tweaks. As far as, uh, some of the financial assistance type programs that are out there. She has made some announcements along those veins. The One Big Beautiful Bill had some adjustments in crop insurance and I guess I've rarely seen the USDA, a risk management agency, work so quickly. It's probably just a month later and those rules have all been implemented already. That announcement came out this week. So I think they're working overtime to try to make some of the changes they can, but it's kind of like working around the edges and it's hard to fix a farm economy from a government desk. What about this? Will this work? Yeah, that's a good one, tommy.
Speaker 1:Hold on, we got more, all right. What's going on with the United States and China?
Speaker 2:Obviously, we have sold zero bushels of soybeans to China A lot of consternation. We've lost a lot of business this year already to Brazil in particular. The ASA president, American Soybean Association president, Caleb Ragland, wrote a letter to the administration urging the administration to prioritize soybeans and trade with China in their actions. Moving forward. Farm groups are always sending letters to the administration, but I think that was one that there's a little frustration going on with the soybean folks and where we're at with the trade negotiations. We have seen a few trade deals come through this week more details on the framework agreement between the United States and European Union. On the framework agreement between the United States and European Union, Trump talked with Carney, the Canadian prime minister, yesterday. Talking trade Doesn't sound like there was a lot of details, but they agreed to keep the conversation going.
Speaker 1:So that's a positive move. I'm going to keep full screen on you. Just there's a lot of people walking behind me here. The people are starting to walk in. A headline just came out, and it's about a half hour old, about some news out of Canada. Canada. I'll read it to you, familiarize you with it White House welcomes move by Canada on tariffs. Fox Business Did you see that Canada kind of toned it down a little bit? Canada removed regulatory tariffs on many US goods. Source Canadian tariffs on US auto, steel and aluminum will remain. So what are you hearing out of our friends from the North?
Speaker 2:Well, like I said, Carney and Trump met this week by phone, agreed to keep the conversation going. Canada is the only G7 nation that did not really come to the table and make some concessions so that we could have lower tariffs between our two trading partners, but obviously I think they're under pressure. Carney got elected by saying he was going to be able to get something done on this trade situation, so something's got to happen, I would think at some point.
Speaker 1:Was it a week or two that we had this great meeting? I don't know that anything happened with it. It was a week ago. Yep, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2:Good question, because you know that was followed quickly by a Trump meeting with Zelensky, and the European leaders got on the plane and made a quick trip to DC as well, trying to get Trump, really trying to get Zelensky and Putin to sit at the same table. Seemed like there was some optimism, but news up this morning that the foreign minister from Russia is going to be on Meet the Press on Sunday. The interview has already been recorded and, on certain terms, talked about. It's not ready for primetime. Putin's not going to be sitting down with Zelensky anytime soon.
Speaker 1:On the celebrity gossip front, I do have to say just throwing you a curve ball. Did you see this? Did you see this doozy here where the CME group, where we do all these trades, is partnering together with FanDuel? Is that anything you'd even like to comment on? Or you want me to grab this?
Speaker 2:one that's a new one to me.
Speaker 1:Come on, I given you the layups, oh man.
Speaker 2:Cme group this one you grab that's a new one to me.
Speaker 1:Come on, I've given you the layups. Well, oh man, uh, see me group, you know board of trade, see me, nymex, comex, all these groups, uh, they're all owned by see me group. Looks like they're partnering with fan duel. To maybe clear when I say trades, I mean trades on betting. The big joke has always been like oh, I don't want to trade futures and options, it's a damn casino. Well now, how Well, now it is. Now it is. So that's the comment. I'll read it here to you.
Speaker 1:Together, our event-based products will appeal to the growing public interest in markets and we will provide education to attract new generation and potential traders, not active and derivative today. Terry Duffy, the president, ceo. I think what this means, mr Wick, is that I think in six months or a year, you'll be able to bet on the yield. So they'll make a marketplace. It'll be the 2026 final corn yield and you'll be able to bet on it like you've never seen. So do you need to trade corn futures? Maybe not. You could just bet on the yield and they'll be able to make a. They do this a lot in europe. They'll bet on you know what, what time the first player will fake being injured in the european soccer. I mean, there's a bet on a bet on a bet and vegas has all that as well, right yeah, but europe takes it to a whole nother level of the gambling extraordinary.
Speaker 1:And I guess, uh, we're one closer, uh, one, uh way closer to that. So so anyway, I'm in Dodge City. We're going to have a great meeting on cattle. Let's talk about cattle. A new record heist today Cattle going up and more, up and more up. I don't even know what to say, except for I'm really looking forward to talking to some of these great ranchers here.
Speaker 1:It's beautiful here in Dodge City. It's green and people are in a good mood, but not when it comes to wheat. Wheat's been a problem for so many people. They have a poor basis here. We have poor demand in so many of our ag products.
Speaker 1:Before you and I started to record this, I realized that I was just looking at the Internet and it was a group from the Tennessee corn growers and this corn grower. They all want to tell everyone hey, it's really, really bad out there and we have a problem. And I did. I did again. I got to meet the Ag Secretary I'm the one on the left and she did say on her interview with RFD TV she is well aware of how dire it is in Ag. I just don't know what they can do with that. So I don't know, I don't have an answer. You know, sometimes you and I come here with some hard-hitting facts. This happened, that happened. You know the EPA ruling, there's pro-farmer news coming out, there's all types of stuff, but when it comes to how are we going to make up this difference on, if 60% of the people, well, it affects 100% of the people, regardless of your political affiliation.
Speaker 2:We have to churn through a lot of product. That's the big problem.
Speaker 1:Right, right. So we're kind of blessed with the bushels but not blessed with the price. It's a real problem, don. How do people get a hold of?
Speaker 2:you Certainly go to our website rrfncom. We have a weekly e-newsletter called farm. Net news gets uh published every monday and we'd certainly love to to have people subscribe yeah, no shortage of information here.
Speaker 1:What's going on? Uh, tom grisafi, here in dodge city. Uh, don wick I'm afraid to have my camera and I don't know who's going to walk behind me and make googly eyes, but we're expecting about 50 farmers here. Um should be good and, as always, I'm an easy guy to get a hold of. Want to get a hold of me? You can do it this way 1-855-737-FARM. Of course you can get a hold of Mr Wick and get on his newsletter. So much fun here in agriculture. I do hope things get better. It's not uncommon at this time of year to have lower prices.
Speaker 2:Typically, when we come to we'll be at the farm show up by you in a few weeks Want to talk about that a little bit. Big Iron Farm Show. It's coming up September 9th, 10th and 11th in West Fargo Always a great show. Red River Farm Network has a building where we have forums going on each day and, tommy, you're on our schedule. On Tuesday it was a few other, a couple other analysts each afternoon at 1.30. We have three analysts on the stage and, again, no shortage of things to talk about in this market.
Speaker 1:No, absolutely, Mr Don Wick, Redbird Farm Network. Tom Grosafi, here with your weekly update. I'll see you soon, my friend.
Speaker 2:Thanks, Tommy.
