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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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Wiesemeyers Perspectives | When Government Aid Falls Short: The True Cost of Farming Today
We tackle the severe cash flow crisis American farmers are experiencing despite billions in government aid. Current assistance programs cover only a fraction of losses, with soybeans facing nearly $2 per bushel shortfalls and aid offsetting just 37%.
• Farmers will need another economic assistance package by year-end through either Congress or USDA
• The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) needs replenishment to function as USDA's financial resource
• Three solutions identified: targeted trade deals, expanded food aid, and developing new uses for crops
• Mexico's screwworm outbreak shows 53% increase since July, now threatening to approach US border
• USDA sending teams to verify containment efforts as ranchers warn Texas infestation could cost $1.8B
• Agricultural exports forecast improved but still showing deficit for third straight year
• New tariffs on India (50%) and Brazil (50%) creating trade tensions and higher beef prices
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins actively advocating for farmers at cabinet meetings
• Congressional agenda includes appropriations, Farm Bill 2.0, and potential early payments for 2025 crops
• USDA reorganization aims to relocate staff closer to agricultural communities despite DC resistance
Email Jim at wiesemeyer@gmail.com to subscribe to his daily agricultural policy newsletter.
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Thank you, Tommy G
what an end of week. Look at me, I'm all bleached out. This is tommy krasoffi. You are listening to the agbo podcast. You're watching the agbo podcast, but if you're watching this episode with mr jim weisbauer, you didn't come here to see me. Now I am at the rfd tv studios. If you're watching this episode with Mr Jim Wiesmeyer, you didn't come here to see me Now I am at the RFD TV studios. If you've noticed, I've been doing TV all week filling in for my good friend, scott Shalday, the cow guy. We even had Mr Wiesmeyer on the show, but you came here to see him and I look so bad on this camera. I'm probably going to do a lot more full screens of Jim.
Speaker 2:There he is, the star.
Speaker 1:Look at us. I need a tan. Actually, this is what you get when you use a dollar. You know your camera and your laptop versus your knife sink. Jim's recording from an Apple laptop and he looks handsome.
Speaker 2:MacBook Pro is the best laptop you can get period.
Speaker 1:Done, he's coming to you from Washington, period. Done, he's coming to you from Washington From the show Weissmeyer's. How do I say it? Perspectives, perspectives. I mean it's complicated. Mr Jim Weissmeyer, you did very well on TV yesterday, very well.
Speaker 2:Well, thank you. Thank you very much, and we're raring to go now, because we've got a series of topics to go through, tommy.
Speaker 1:Let's get them done here. Try to keep the show on time. Thank you for watching. Thank you for listening. Let's go to the first topic. Farmers are worried, are they?
Speaker 2:They're very worried. There's a cash flow dilemma going on and it could linger a while. Now. Southern Ag Today is a daily publication of Texas A&M and other universities, and they were out with a circular this morning. That was a pretty good perspective, if you will. They actually asked the question why US farmers are still worried despite the billion dollars in aid. Now, where are those billion dollars in aid, tommy?
Speaker 2:The One Big, beautiful Bill Act includes $62 billion. Now, that's spread over 10 years, but that just covers only a fraction of the past and projected losses. Then you had that American Relief Act last year, december 21,. To be exact, that was almost $31 billion. You had the economic assistance, which was $10 billion. We had the economic assistance, which was $10 billion. Usda has already paid out $8 billion of that. But perspective, that's just 26% of the 2024 crop losses. And then we have the disaster funding of almost $21 billion, but again, that only pays about 32% of the disaster loss. Then, when a farmer utilizes either the ARC or the PLC for their 2024 crop not 2025, for their 2024 crops, that's really outdated benchmark from the 2014 Farm Bill bill.
Speaker 2:When we switch to 2025 crop year, farmers won't get payments until October 2026. Now here's the perspective I have on that. There's going to be a congressional initiative. Count on it to advance some partial payments for the 2025 crop prior to October 2026. And it won't make any farmer whole but it'll give some needed cash flow Again. Perspective Soybeans right now are facing a loss of nearly $2 per bushel. The ARC and PLC programs in Title I, that'll just offset about 37% of that, based on current projections from the Southern Ag Today people, dr Joe Outlaw, dr Bart Fisher of Texas A&M. So it leaves most losses uncovered.
Speaker 2:So what's the conclusion? So what's the conclusion? I'll almost guarantee you there'll be another economic assistance package for agriculture by the end of this year. It can come either through congressional legislation or USDA. The Trump administration can tap the Commodity Credit Corporation again, which they did in Trump's first term, if you recall when we had the trade war with China.
Speaker 2:But we have to wait for Congress to replenish that Commodity Credit Corporation funding and they'll do so probably in October of this year. It'll be part of the ag appropriations bill. They have a borrowing authority of $30 billion and it's way down from that. So again, the bottom line is it's going to come later, but it'll be this year, because bankers are calling into the farm, state lawmakers, farm groups are calling in and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, at the cabinet meeting this week I think it was on Tuesday brought charts along to show the cabinet including of course President Trump the downturn in crop prices, farm income, the cost side. So Trump heard all that. So I don't think again. I don't think it's a question of if it's when and how much.
Speaker 1:But we need this. We need them to refill. What is it again? You said they need the.
Speaker 2:Commodity Credit Corporation, CCC. That's the CCC. I've always said it's kind of USDA's credit card or ATM machine. Usda's credit card or ATM machine because that's what they've utilized for the Conservation Reserve program payments, farm program payments. That's where Trump tapped the CCC, Commodity Credit Corporation, during his first term, for what will eventually was $28 billion. That's a chunk of change even in DC.
Speaker 1:If you dropped that, if you had that in your wallet and you dropped it on the street, you'd be pissed. All right, so you keep saying what is needed, what is needed. You have it right here.
Speaker 2:Absolutely yeah. You just can't define a problem. You have to say, okay, how do we get out of this hole? Three things is what analysts are telling me Trade deals that really focuses on agriculture. Now we've had a couple that have been pretty good for biofuels Japan, the United Kingdom, et cetera. Vietnam announced this week that they're going to change their policy to import more US ethanol and corn. So we've got the steps for not a solution, but for some progress in the trade policy arena, and the big kahuna on the trade deal would be China.
Speaker 2:Again, I would predict that by the end of this year we'll have a summit between President Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping and if they have the summit, they're going to announce something, what we call receivables, and it'll be another trade agreement. Let's hope it's better on enforcement than the phase one was, but that'll be good for soybeans. Because of all the commodities in the US, that is hurting the most relative to the lack of China purchases. They haven't purchased one bushel of soybeans from the 2025 crop. It'll be soybeans, so that's in the future to watch out for. The second need is food aid, both domestically and international, and USDA has been behind the curve. Actually, they've cut back on some food aid, but I think that'll kick in between now again and the end of the year. Then the third one is expanded uses. You've got to find other ways to utilize those crops and that's where we get into biofuels, both biodiesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and, of course, ethanol. The listening audience will probably want to know where are we at on the sustainable aviation fuel Absolutely.
Speaker 2:Well, that's a tax incentive and that means the IRS and the Treasury Department is involved, and we all know that they don't understand agriculture, so it's going to take a while. But they also have a lot of things they're busy with on all the tax codes and the bulletins that the IRS and Treasury has to put out relative to the one big beautiful bill tax cuts. So that's why the sustainable aviation fuel is on the back burner, not the front burner. But again, that'll be coming out, I think in the next few months. Let's hope so. But the quote I thought that was good by Dr Outlaw and Bart Fisher for Southern Ag Today kind of nailed it. They both said we've never met a farmer who preferred getting income from the government. They can't wait to break this cycle of praying, to simply break even, and that's the environment we're in right now. Now, that doesn't mean everybody is underwater, but I haven't seen it this way in a long time, tommy, from a cash flow perspective.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you know Joe Baklavik did a video. He does this morning video. It's awesome. He just retweeted. He said folks go back and look at the comments from my morning video. He said that I'll quote him. I don't want to misspeak him, but he's pretty much saying the hate and the anger has never been this great and that pains me as someone who works with farmers, loves farmers, loves agriculture. You know we're allowed to have good times, we're allowed to have bad times, but this is too much. It's. It's just, it's just too much. It's. It's not good, jim. And he said read through today's comment section If you're bored. People are furious about everything, just angry people, little, little pen warriors, as I call them. Be careful arguing with people who buy ink by the barrel, mr Wiesmeyer, you ever hear that one? Yes, yes, all right, let's move on. All right. New World Screw.
Speaker 2:Worm. We had some developments this week. We had a well, actually it occurred on August the 4th. There was a individual in Maryland, which is next door state to me I live in Virginia that traveled to El Salvador and got a screw worm and got a screw worm. The person is okay now but that got into the market. Remember that was August 4th. We didn't get the official announcement until actually the 24th of August and some in the industry is all upset about it. But this wasn't a livestock thing. If you look back in the cattle market on August the 8th I think we were limit down. At one time there was speculation that it was a case of screwworm in the United States. That was absolutely incorrect. So finally, this past weekend, sunday, is when my email started confirming that about this Maryland case, confirming that about this Maryland case. Now, deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden was at the Farm Progress show in Decatur.
Speaker 1:Illinois. He's right here, that handsome man.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yes, yes, and he's a good guy, very knowledgeable and number two at USDA, and he said look, this is not impacting the livestock industry. So he went on and listed the five points that USDA has announced to try to make sure that that screw worm doesn't come north from Mexico into the United States, because then we'll have a world to hurt. Ranchers warned that a Texas infestation could cost $1.8 billion. Now Reuters reported late this week that Mexico has a little over 5,000 screw worm cases in their animals as of August 17th. Now that's a 53% increase from July. The outbreak included almost 650 active cases cattle the most affected. There were some dogs, horses and sheeps. Now for the audience.
Speaker 2:Screwworms burrow into living flesh from eggs laid in wounds, threatening livestock herds, wildlife populations, etc. The problem for the US is, since emerging in 2023, those parasites have spread north from Central America into Mexico, moving close to the US border. Now Vaden in Decatur said USDA is going to send a team to Mexico, another team actually to Mexico in two weeks to verify their containment and other aspects and other aspects. Now my big question from the Reuters report is were any of these new cases north of the sterile fly release zone? Now see, we've released sterile flies because they only populate once in their lifetime. So that's why the sterile flies are needed, because then you don't produce it. But the last reported case of screwworm was 370 miles from the US border.
Speaker 2:I'm trying to get an update to that. I don't have it for this show. I don't have it for this show, but as soon as I get that information I'll put it in my daily letter, or maybe we'll do it next week if I get an answer. But that's your key on Screw Worm. We have to take every effort to keep that away from that Texas border, absolutely.
Speaker 1:All right, that was incredible.
Speaker 2:We're halfway through the show, people want to sign up for your newsletter. How do they do it? My last name at gmailcom, every other letter is an E except the beginning, w-i-e-s-e-m-e-y-e-r. At gmailcom and I'll put them on and we've. We got a number of uh uh perspectives podcast. Uh uh uh podcast listeners on from the last program, and then your RFD TV got, I would think, about 30 or 40 into it as well. So this is my give back, tommy, to the industry that has been so good to me.
Speaker 1:I love it. I love it. I'm going to click on some things. Let's see good to me. I love it. I love it. I'm going to click on some things. Let's see T3 EPA.
Speaker 2:Yeah, this past week EPA announced what we call the small refinery. They've issued the 175, actually petitions 63 got full exemptions, 77 partial, 28 petitions were denied and seven were deemed ineligible. What does that mean? Well, you know refineries that had already retired the RINs to meet the compliance. They're not being returned, so that wouldn't have any market impact. But what was positive to this? Remember, on our last program, we had the rumor that this was going to come out and it was positive and we thought, hmm, I wonder what's going on there. This is the reason why they're going to reallocate those plans for 2023 and later years. That'll mean they'll propose a rule to reallocate the exempted mandated volumes beginning in 2023. So that means we'll utilize more ethanol, that it won't be added rinse just into the marketplace, and that's a good thing. Not a bad bottom line from a farmer's perspective relative to the EPA announcement. Tommy.
Speaker 1:And all these numbers here? Someone doesn't understand this. How do you explain this to them? Decisions issued on 175 SRE.
Speaker 2:Well, they used a different type of a rule that I think is more practical now, and that's why the RIN markets responded so positively, because there's expectations of minimal disruption to demand for the coming compliance years, 2024, 2025 and beyond. So I think EPA took a very volatile issue and probably tempered it about as much as they could. That's not bad for EPA, which has not been accused of being, you know, practical in the past. To be honest, I understand.
Speaker 1:Correct me if I'm wrong. We have a little bit of breaking news. Breaking news. Breaking news, mr Weisberg, let's see.
Speaker 2:I've got to go to this. Yeah, we have literal breaking news. Usda today came out with their agricultural export forecast for both 2025 and 2026. Now we still have a deficit, a trade deficit, but exports were lifted, in other words, a higher amount, and the trade deficit narrowed from $49.5 billion to $47 billion. So that's a step in the right direction. So, and then for the August update, it is a slightly improved export outlook, narrowed the trade gap relative to the May estimate, but still a chunk of imports of horticultural, tropical and processed products.
Speaker 2:That remains a structural challenge. We just don't produce those in the capacity that we need. So it's going to mean the United States is going to post another record deficit in fiscal year 2025. That's the one we're in now. It ends September 30th. It used to be my goodness. In my long career, agriculture always had a trade surplus, not a deficit, but this will be the third straight year of a deficit. Now, the next forecast is going to be issued November the 25th, so we're going to have to see what that says. Now, for 2026, they actually show an improvement, with a deficit of $41.5 billion and the risk being China's continuing retreat as a buyer of US commodities. So that could change, tommy. If we have a US trade agreement and once it's implemented throughout fiscal year 2026 that starts October 1, we could actually start getting even more improvements into the US agricultural trade deficit. So at least there's hope on the horizon here, tommy.
Speaker 1:Speaking of hope. How about these characters here India, brazil, china.
Speaker 2:India. That's wrapped into geopolitics with the Russia oil that Trump doesn't like India buying all that oil. And so on the 27th of this month, this week, he put on an additional 50% tariffs on top of what India was having to pay anyway for their tariffs. And that's not a good thing, because now you're seeing a shift in India's going to. They're meeting with Xi Jinping and they're meeting with other countries in in order to salvage their trade relationships. So we've got a power brokers going on between the U? S and India right now. Hopefully they'll come to an agreement, you know, relatively soon, so we can get you, so we can get India buying a U? S cotton. They're they're, you know, pretty big buyer of US cotton. Absolutely, absolutely. So let's hope that's the case, tommy, absolutely. Now what was the other?
Speaker 2:Brazil Again we had a surplus with Brazil on agricultural trade, but still.
Speaker 1:This is Brazil, right yeah?
Speaker 2:He hit them with 50% tariffs. And you talk about an impact on a number of coffee that wasn't exempted, orange juice was exempted, but beef wasn't exempted. So our already high hamburger prices are going to go higher because we import a chunk of you know Brazilian hamburger. Now again, brazil's going around the world now trying to find alternative markets on this one. So I don't know how this is going to be concluded because it gets into geopolitics between Trump and Brazil's current leader, because Trump was far more friendly with their prior leader, tommy, on that one. So just trade policy is almost every day I can write about trade policy that it has market implications. So you have to go through them.
Speaker 1:Yeah, absolutely. And China Not? A whole lot of news out of China.
Speaker 2:Well, china not Well, we have a Chinese official. He went to Canada first and he's in the US as we speak right now. Now they're calling it informal trade policy discussions. That means don't expect much, however. You have to talk to get things done, things done. So I think this will eventually lay the groundwork for Scott Besant, our Treasury Secretary, to eventually probably go to China or have his Chinese counterpart come over here They've already said at the end of October or early November and Besant will help lay the groundwork for his boss, president Trump, to get some receivables relative to a potential new US-China trade agreement. So we got things rolling in the background. So, again, I think that's a good thing, tommy.
Speaker 1:I clicked the wrong button but I did post a picture of me and the USDA secretary. But she is. I respect her and she's wonderful. She's making headlines all the time. I mean, she was where the heck was she today? Mississippi, she was all over she goes all over.
Speaker 2:I have never seen a more aggressive spokesperson for USDA. You really, I really have to go back to Earl Butts Now for those for you, Dr Earl Butts.
Speaker 1:Now for those of you who don't know, the two-part meme that was in the Nixon and Ford administration.
Speaker 2:But she is very articulate and she, you know the USDA secretary has to be they better be a cheerleader for US agriculture, and boy is she that. And she's not afraid to speak up at the cabinet meeting, as we saw this Tuesday. And she's very close to President Trump, her boss, because, as I think I said on the last program, she was almost Trump's chief of staff, susie.
Speaker 1:Wiley got it. That tells you.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that tells you how close she is. So that means, well, who's back running the shop? A lot of times, stephen Vaden, the Deputy Secretary of Ag. I've learned over my many decades of watching USDA the Deputy Secretary is the glue that holds USDA together, why they're there every day. They have to work on the budget, they have to deal with congressional inquiries, inquiries, et cetera. And you talk about a sharp guy. If Stephen Vaden is in the room, he's probably the smartest person in the room, based on my experience.
Speaker 1:Well, you have a lot of experience, so I'm going to believe you. All right, we got a few more slides. I'm going to throw you a curveball to end the show and I think you're going to knock it out of the park, but if you don't, then we'll educate our viewers and listeners Real quick. Everyone, if you're out there listening, I am Tommy Grusappi, egg Bowl Media. The reason I'm hiding isn't because I'm scared of you. It's because I'm scared of you. It's because I'm on my laptop and I look horrible and jim's much better looking and a lot of you are just listening to this. So with that, uh, thank you, uh, we'll go full screen on mr jim and, uh, I want to talk about this real quick. The congressional agenda they're coming back.
Speaker 2:Congress is coming back, so we should be afraid. I always like when congress is out they can do less damage, to be very truthful to you. But they have a chunk of work to do. They still have to work on an appropriations bill for the current fiscal year that we're in, otherwise we'll have a countdown to shut down the government. My goodness, we don't want that. So that means they'll probably have another short-term continuing resolution, maybe just just of a few weeks, if not a month, in order for them to do what they should be doing now to reach an agreement. Then they start after talking about the budget for fiscal year 26. That starts October 1.
Speaker 2:For the ag sector, GT Thompson, the House Ag Committee Chairman, John Bozeman on the Senate Ag Committee side, I think that they'll continue to work with the Democrats Amy Klobuchar on the Senate side and Angie Craig on the House side and you know both of them are from Minnesota for Farm Bill 2.0 or the Skinning Farm Bill or, et cetera. So that'll be weeks in the making. You're not going to have that done next week. And then another one next week will be all the nominations that the Senate still has to go through to get Trump's nominees through the Democrats are slow walking them. So those are the biggest agendas. We've got the funding mechanism for this fiscal year, we have Farm Bill 2.0 talks and then we have maybe a legislative effort to advance some of these 2025 crop payments before October 2026 to get more money out to the crop sector how many times you've been in this building?
Speaker 2:more than I care to admit. I love the building, of course it's beautiful to see at night. If I I love dc. Uh, if you want to have a little bullet going to you, not bullet a quiver going to your heart, see the DC at nighttime. It's just beautiful. And now that we have more security it's safe to walk around, tommy, because President Trump has seen it, and then you can even drive now because you have less chances of getting your car hijacked. So I think things are on the rise in DC as well.
Speaker 1:Well, I hope he brings them to Chicago, but I guess there's different rules for how he can do that in DC versus major cities, right?
Speaker 2:He has absolutely authority for 30 days in DC. And even our mayor in DC, mary I can't think of her last name, that's right, but she said she admitted that it's definitely helped. She didn't like everything Trump was doing, but she liked those boots on the ground and the number of crimes have gone down, way down. They just have to change some of these silly rules that DC has that the young kids 14, 15, 16 years old they can't put them in jail and they keep on coming back within 30 hours of being ticketed.
Speaker 1:So that's a whole other problem that we have.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it is.
Speaker 1:Real quick this and I'm going to throw you the curveball. But I got a feeling this curveball you're going to hit it out of the park. But USDA reorganization what do you know there?
Speaker 2:Oh, my goodness, I'll tell you who again I'll do Vaden. He was asked this and I always look up the quote of note. And when he told the Farm Progress Show about the USDA reorganization he said this line when you're in the District of Columbia there are all sorts of people jumping up and down about this thing. They don't like it. But one thing he said he's noticed is that when you get roughly 45 minutes outside of the District of Columbia, nobody thinks it's really a bad idea because everybody kinds of understands. He said that it's just seen as natural to have the people for USDA be as close to their constituency as possible in the states. Now I would never use the word everybody because that'll get you in trouble Many people believe that outside of that 45-minute area, yes, it's controversial.
Speaker 2:But to get the USDA people back into the countryside, he said like one of the hubs is Indianapolis. That's half the cost of housing and other aspects of living compared to DC. So once they have that established, families that work at USDA will stay in the job longer because they'll be able to afford it so much better. Now we can quibble about where these hubs are and there's a call for public comment until September 1. So that's coming up. I think that they're going to add another hub, probably Iowa someplace, but that's just me, but the bottom line on reorganization, that's just me.
Speaker 2:But the bottom line on reorganization no, this town, DC, hates change, but they are within their legal grounds to have this change. It's going to take time. It'll eventually make more sense than it is right now.
Speaker 1:All right, take a big breath. We'll meet with Mr Jim Wiesmeyer. It's been a long, crazy week. We're coming up on a holiday. He doesn't know I'm doing this, but he's so damn smart I know he's going to get this one. Today, on Cow Guy Close, I interviewed a young man named Art Laffler Jr. If I asked you, do you know what the Laffler curve is?
Speaker 2:Laffler curve. Laffler curve is Laffler curve, laffler curve. Could you just pretend you don't know something.
Speaker 1:Oh my God, Explain it to the viewers.
Speaker 2:That means you have tax cuts okay, and that will instill all sorts of investment and it's better for the economy and it will give more people more money to spend the way they think that it should be spent, rather than the government telling you how to spend it. That's as simple as that. I remember his father wrote it on a piece of envelope in the Reagan administration years. So it works. It has succeeded years. So it works, it has succeeded. So again, a farmer will know it instills whenever you cut taxes, investment depreciation et cetera. It gives companies more bravado to purchase either equipment and boy do the equipment people need help to. It lets a number, not just in agriculture but overall business. It gives them more bravado to hire people more people pay them maybe a little bit more and to stretch a little bit in their entrepreneurial spirit, and that's what's made America great. And I think all that's wrapped into that curve, if they allow it to work, tommy.
Speaker 1:That was Jim Wiesmeyer. With Wiesmeyer's Perspectives, I tried to throw him a zinger. Not only he hit it out of the park, he hurt some little kid who was standing outside of the park when the ball landed. For the love of God, what a privilege to work with you, Jim. I'm going to get out of here. It's been a long week but I'm going to get the show boxed up. How do people get a hold of you? I got a pop-up. We want them signing up for your newsletter. I noticed my viewership, listenership, downloads, watches has exploded since partnering with you, and for that I'm very grateful, sir.
Speaker 2:Sure, just email me at my last name at gmailcom W-I-E-S-E-M-E-Y-E-R at gmailcom, and as soon as I get your email, you'll get my letter the very next day.
Speaker 1:And sometimes you put out multiple ones with breaking news.
Speaker 2:Special report. Well, I'm just after we get done with this podcast. I got to write a special report on this ag trade number, so you've got my thoughts before I can get them out on my letter Just about the time you get done with this.
Speaker 1:If you give me 20 minutes, I'll have this boxed up, so I'll get this back to you. All right, tommy Grisafi, coming to you from Nashville, tennessee, ag Bowl Media. Ag Bowl Podcast. Ag Bowl Trading Just Google Ag Bowl. Mr Jim, we see egg bowl media. Egg bowl podcast people trading just google egg bowl. Mr jim, we spire. Once you learn to spell, we spire, the world is yours. With that, another great episode. Thank you, we'll see you darling.
