AG Bull
Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
AG Bull
Who Really Controls America's Agricultural Future?
Tom Grisafi and Don Wick discuss a week of significant agricultural developments spanning crop conditions, market movements, and political upheaval. The contrast between potentially record-breaking yields and challenging economics highlights the complex reality facing today's farmers.
• Don's crop tour revealed surprisingly good conditions in northern regions with corn reaching 215 bushels/acre near the Canadian border
• Western North Dakota appears "grass green" when typically burnt up this time of year
• Farmers face storage challenges and poor basis despite good yield potential
• Federal Reserve independence questioned after White House attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook
• Cattle markets continued strong performance while grain markets rebounded despite bearish USDA estimates
• Potential "bridge payment" mentioned by USDA official Steven Vaden to help struggling farmers
• Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford's editorial sounds alarm about farm economy
• Congress returning after recess with "skinny farm bill" potential
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Thank you, Tommy G
Happy Friday everyone. Tom Grossoffi coming to you from RFD TV studios. It's a quiet afternoon here in Nashville, but I got the one and only Don Wick. He was busy this week. I was busy this week and the markets had a good week, if you like cattle going up and corn going up. We got lots of news out of DC and other various things. Mr Wick is right there. See, I clicked the button and poof he pops in. You had a crop tour this week. Would you like to talk about that?
Speaker 2:Sure, Each August we do our own crop tour. We always seem to follow the week following Pro Farmer and just get a snapshot of what's happening in the far northern corn belt and places like north dakota and northwest minnesota. Uh, tommy, it's interesting. You've been with me in far western north dakota and this time of year it's typically everything's burnt up. It was grass green. The cows have grass right up to their belly. It's very unusual to see green grass and the conditions that we have in western Minnesota and central Minnesota at this time. So that was pretty exciting to see. We saw a lot of soybeans that were full of pods. They look good.
Speaker 2:We got into northeastern North Dakota on Tuesday and in that area they were dealing with some more. The crop is a little farther behind but there's bushels there, if this mother nature allows that crop to fully mature. That northeastern North Dakota area also is. Every combine in the world seemed to be running in that region. While the rest of the week we've been on the road I barely saw anything moving. But northeastern North Dakota they're still hopping in the wheat harvest. We moved into far northwestern Minnesota. When you're looking at Roseau Minnesota, when you're looking at Roseau Minnesota right on the Canadian border and we're looking at corn in the 215 area and they were very close to black layer. It's pretty impressive to be seeing that again in Roseau. It's a real testament to the genetics and some of the management that's happening in that footprint.
Speaker 2:Uh, one of my partners took off on thursday yesterday and was in that southeast north dakota territory, tommy. That's the area where the had two huge wind events. We lost a lot of grain bins, a lot of infrastructure and there's a lot of corn that uh dealt with too much rain and a lot of wind. The corn that's standing looks really good, but it's a challenge. Today, this morning, I was in the Minnesota side of the southern Red River Valley and we saw some beautiful crops Everything we saw. Today. They got about the yield estimator and we're looking well over 200 bushels, so there's a lot of optimism with this crop.
Speaker 1:We're going to need every bushel as know, though, yeah, the markets were up today and we could talk about that in a little bit. Uh, we got don wick red river farm network with us. He went on crop tour. Let's head out to dc. We got all types of stuff there. We can go with the feds cook. We can go with, uh, uh, your fired, uh, apprentice style. A lot of people got whacked, a lot of threats, and with that we have a holiday weekend coming too. So where would you like to start?
Speaker 2:Well, let's talk about, when you talk about Cook, the Fed governor, that the White House wants to push out of the job. There's going to be some legal challenges obviously to that. You know there's always that separation of church and state between the Fed and the administration. That's the way the Fed was set up. So there's a bit of a consternation with that. Trump certainly wants to have a little more control, particularly with these tariffs kicking in. So that's a big issue.
Speaker 2:That was the big story, I think, in the news. That's a big issue. That was the big story, I think, in the news. But then you saw the CDC, with a lot of folks walking out because of their disagreement with Secretary Kennedy. And then one that I don't think I saw a lot of headlines on but we were reporting on. It was the Surface Transportation Board. There's what three people on the STB they take care of, all oversee all the rail decisions and some of the mergers that uh are out there, uh, uh, the Democrat member of that being terminated as well this week. None of these areas are there, are appointments that are made and they shouldn't be under the authority of the president to be terminated at will. So all of these, I think are going to be in court, in court, yep, yep.
Speaker 1:I happen to know what year the Fed started. I believe it was 1913 by President Woodrow Wilson. I only know that because I Googled that this morning for a hit we did on Cowguy about the Fed, and the hit was can the Fed stay independent? Right, there's people who say the government should be more involved in the Fed. I don't think people realize how much power or power is not the right word how much freedom the Fed has. I mean the Fed is an independent agency, correct? Yeah?
Speaker 2:But don't you think there probably should be some of that independence in a?
Speaker 1:situation like that? Yeah, because presidents come and go, they die, they step down. I mean, richard Nixon resigns. Do you change your financial policy? I mean they need to be consistent. Now they say they can't be swayed by the government, but others would argue I mean, whoever appointed them in that party? They probably want to win again. They're not rooting against their party, correct? Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2:We all come into things with political bias, right, right.
Speaker 1:like the Supreme Court, these people get appointed and they're probably not hoping their guy or gal loses. But Trump did appoint several people to the Supreme Court and they've ruled against them like crazy. They're probably because they say it's my job to do right and wrong and I'm going on the side of right. I don't care if he put me in here. They're supposed to do the right thing. We'll see. But the Fed's supposed to do the right thing for the United States and create liquidity and help in times of uncertainty and definitely create liquidity and stop inflation from getting out of control, the Fed governors.
Speaker 2:Their terms are like 14.
Speaker 1:I mean it's yeah, they're wrong, yeah because lisa cook was supposed to be in there forever. Uh, we'll see. I don't know what happens, if my guess is, uh, she stays. Uh, very hot topic uh this week, though. Okay, uh, go back to your crop tour when you're talking to these people about all these bushels. We have the worst basis around in North Dakota right now.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Talked with some farmers. They're talking about piling corn on the ground just because storage Storage is a challenge in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. To begin with, it's not like we're in an I state. We don't have the bins that you may have in other parts of the world. But when you look at some of the damage that we had earlier this season with a couple of different wind events, the bins took out by 80, 90 mile an hour wind. So that's going to make it even tougher. But that basis is ugly and at the same time they're looking at their input costs. Haven't changed it fertilized their bill. It looks like it's going to be edging up a little bit again. So yeah, there's a lot of consternation with the whole thing, Tommy.
Speaker 1:Pretty crazy times. Well, we got to. A lot of people are hoping we had someone. I believe this young man I'll pull. Pull up his picture, I believe.
Speaker 2:Pull up his picture, I believe he said something at the farm progress show about uh. Uh, you know this youngster here. Yeah, deputy steven vaden. He talked about a bridge. Uh, maybe some financial assistance outside of some of the assistant packages that are already in play. Uh, here before the end of the year. He didn't offer many details, but at least use those words a bridge payment of some sort.
Speaker 1:Yeah, because US farmers are extremely worried. I mean extremely worried, I don't want to say nobody's cash flowing. Very few are cash flowing. This is not what we want for agriculture. And now, hey, don't worry, we'll make it up for the government. Then you don't work for yourself as a farmer, you work for the United States government. If this keeps up and you know the farmer is so fiercely independent they're going to cash check, but they're not going to be happy about it, right yeah?
Speaker 2:Did you see the editorial Beth Ford, the CEO at Land O'Lakes, wrote about the farm economy? I did. I think she really kind of sounded the alarm. She's got a lot of respect in those board, those boardrooms all across the country I think, and maybe that made a bit of a difference.
Speaker 1:We'll see yeah, we'll see, but we gotta get to these people right here because they're the ones with the money, right yeah?
Speaker 2:they're still on recess, so we'll see. They'll be coming back into uh, uh, into work, uh, here next week. Actually, after labor day, they'll be coming back into DC. They've been off since late July, so this is that August time when they're out campaigning or meet with constituents. It's going to be interesting to see what they can get done with the so-called skinny farm bill. They did a lot of work on that one big, beautiful bill, but now we'll have to see if we could get the finishing touches on a lot of the different policy areas that we have in this farm bill you know what the farmers want right there?
Speaker 1:they want some trump bucks. Yeah, some trump bucks. No, they want a good market. They do not want trump bucks. Well, we do not have a deal with china. Uh, brazil's growing a ton of soybeans kicking our butt, south mayors getting ready to kick. But speaking of kicking butt, cattle had another good week. Let's be happy here. Cattle doing well, corn beans, wheat finished the week. Strong. Matter of fact, of all the commodities I quoted today, only cotton was down and I only have one client who deals with cotton in their rotation in Texas. But a big day and a nice little week for corn and beans and we're digesting these numbers. On the cow guy today, my fourth segment segment. We do five segments.
Speaker 1:Now it's an hour, but arlen suderman was on and I took time to ask him if y'all go back and watch that about. Hey, arlen, I've heard your name a little bit lately. You've been in the press with some big number. Um, you keep saying that the the august rains aren't finishing as well, and folks in the pro farmer crop tour said but when's your next survey? And he said look for StoneX. Next survey next Wednesday. So I'm looking really forward to seeing when StoneX comes out with their new group of numbers.
Speaker 1:He said they survey hundreds of clients from all over, and that's how they come up with that math. And he said people think I can influence. We do a survey, we take the numbers and we post them. It really has nothing to do with him if you could put anyone's name on it, he said, but he did catch a little heat for it. What he did talk about, though, was the positiveness that himself and the usda came out with these really big numbers. The markets digested it in the month of august and close higher than where they were in july, and that's a a very, uh positive so there a lot right there, doesn't it?
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:All right, we talked. What a week corn cattle crop tour. Some people got whacked, as us Italians like to say in DC. I think that about covers it. Anything else on your mind, Mr Wick?
Speaker 2:Just everybody have a safe Labor Day weekend. It's always that last gasp of summer. It seems like it went really fast for me anyway, hopefully everybody has a good one as we move into a new month.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I'm looking forward to it. Markets are closed Sunday. We'll be back open Monday. How do people get a hold of your newsletter and learn more about what's going up on the Great North?
Speaker 2:You can subscribe online with our website rrfncom. It is a weekly newsletter. It comes out every Monday called FarmNet News, and it's a good snapshot of what's going on in the world of agriculture.
Speaker 1:Excellent, mr Wick. Well, this is Tommy Grisafi with the Ag Bowl Podcast, ag Bowl Trading, coming to you from Nashville, tennessee. I'll be traveling next week and, of course, doing my job. Don Wick is in Grand Forks, north Dakota, wishing you all a great weekend. Make sure you like and subscribe. The Egg Bowl podcast can be found all over the place Just Google AG Bull. We have a new website coming out in a few weeks. We're real excited about it. Thank you, mr Wick. Take care, tommy.
