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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Show Me the Money: Trump's Promise to Farmers While DC Burns
Trade policy tensions create ripple effects across agricultural markets as Trump promises aid while China boycotts U.S. farm products. Secretary Rollins presents a five-part agricultural plan while a potential government shutdown threatens to disrupt essential services.
• Trump promises aid to farmers as a "bridge" until tariff policies take effect, though amount and timing remain unspecified
• Treasury Department's $20 billion bond swap with Argentina inadvertently facilitated China's purchase of 35 vessels of Argentine soybeans instead of American ones
• USDA Secretary Rollins announces $2 billion in "top-up" payments through ECAP, increasing allocation factor from 85% to 99%
• Rollins firmly states no plans for direct payments to the beef cattle industry to avoid market distortion
• Potential government shutdown would allow mandatory farm payments to continue but would prevent October crop production reports
• Input costs remain a major concern with fertilizers up 37%, fuel 32%, labor 47%, and interest payments 73% since 2020
• Food prices continue to rise, particularly beef, adding pressure on consumers and contributing to inflation concerns
• Gold, oil, and agricultural commodities show strength, potentially signaling inflationary pressures ahead
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Thank you, Tommy G
What a week, what a week. Tommy Grasafi, Ag Bull Media, Ag Bull Trading. You're listening to the AgBull Podcast. Well, I'd love to say you're here to see me, but I know better than that because this is Wiesmeyer's perspectives. And I have the one and only Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer. He's in the green room. He's doing hair and makeup. He wore his favorite blue shirt. And I even think he has the shark, the shark shirt. And you gotta be older to know who the shark is in golf. You got your writer cup outfit on, don't you?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and I dress down for the occasion all the time to the sixes, not the sevens. Okay.
SPEAKER_01:Mr. Jim Weeksmeyer. I gotta tell you, we're gonna go long today. I don't care what you say. We're going long because it was a crazy active week. Um I've never seen you put out so much content. What's with you?
SPEAKER_00:It's just when it's market sensitive or policy oriented, I've I've got to fire away and I fired away.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and I'm just gonna promote the shit out of you on this episode. People want to know how they get a hold of you right there. Weesmeyer at gmail.
SPEAKER_00:Not Jim, just my last name at gmail.com.
SPEAKER_01:Tell people how did you get the coolest Gmail ever?
SPEAKER_00:I was one of the first 250 or 150 on on Gmail, by the way. So I was early on.
SPEAKER_01:Yes. Yeah, yeah, you're on. You're on. All right, we got to get in the show, and we got some there's some things going on in DC. And I wanted to put it into a picture. And if I if Tommy Grassaffi made a video to describe what's going in DC, it would look like this. Is that an accurate uh picture?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. Is that for Argentina or Americans? Uh we'll get into that later.
SPEAKER_01:That'll be after the commercial break. All right. I don't know why I'm happy. I guess because I see you, but I want to thank a few people as we start the show. Of course, uh, my brother Joe Gersafi sitting in the background. Of course, we got this young man named Dave who helps us load this up. He loaded this up from nine o'clock last night till one in the morning. And I tell you, he says, I love loading up the Wees Meyer show. I said, listen, it's the easiest thing I do all week. Jim sends us the notes, you load it up, we make pretty pictures, we giggle, we laugh, and we distribute it throughout uh all our platforms. With that, let's talk Trump.
SPEAKER_00:Here we go. It was very important because Trump was meeting with the the uh with Turkey's president at the White House, uh Erica. This young man right here, yeah. That's him. That's him. And you see what uh Trump said. He said, We're going to uh provide some aid to farmers as a bridge until his tariff actions uh start being beneficial to the U.S. ag sector. Now what's that mean?
SPEAKER_01:Be more specific.
SPEAKER_00:Well, in in his first administration, when we have the US-China war, they used the Commodity Credit Corporation$28 billion, by the way. Yeah, it was very top heavy for soybeans. This time it's going to be more spread out, and we don't know the funding mechanism. It could be through, well, no, he actually said that the uh uh he he said the tariff revenue, but the problem with that is we may have to have congressional authorization. Uh at least at least some people say that. I don't believe that. I think within the parameters of of uh of the current law that they can do it. And two, we have a pending Supreme Court case that's going to be heard in November and December. That if it rules these tariffs are illegal, then the funds, then the tariff funding has to come back. But they have other avenues that they can utilize to make these trade mitigation payments. So, bottom line, 100%. We don't know when, we don't know how much, but farmers are going to be paid a trade mitigation pay uh payment to offset some of the early downturn that we've seen as a result of some of the initial trade policy maneuvers by President Trump, and that includes China, by the way, that we'll get into.
SPEAKER_01:Okay. And uh has it on halt. What's this mean?
SPEAKER_00:Well, he he said the White House has the attention of China just basically boycotting U.S. farm products. And when you look at soybeans, uh from 55 to 60 percent usually of U.S. soybean exports go to China. And look at this, is this is not a ski slope here. This is a chart that shows their purchases, and it's hurting that soybean sector. So yeah, uh absolutely so it's got the white uh uh Hassett, we should say, is the uh he heads the council of econom uh I'm sorry, National Economic Council, and he's very close to Trump. So he's got Trump's ear. And this, I think, aided uh himself and also USDA Secretary uh Rollins, you know, Brooke Rollins of telling us. I know her.
SPEAKER_01:She looks like this, right?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, absolutely. But you mentioned Argentina. That that was more than a kerfuffle this week to you.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, whoa, always with the big words, the big words, the big words.
SPEAKER_00:Every week you got a big word. Can you spell that? Now well, there's a lot of Fs in it. Now, the the problem with Argentina is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, there he is, worked. I don't think whether it's been officially announced yet, but uh a a backstop to Argentina now uh to because their economy was going downhill and also the currency. So he worked out a 50, a 20 billion, sorry, 20 billion dollar swap, bond swap on that, and and it helped their currency, it rallied. And but here's the ad connection. There's an ad connection to almost anything. After Argentina knew that they were gonna get this aid, okay, they they uh eliminated their export taxes. Well that made their soybeans very enticing to China. They came in and bought a lot you've got 35 maybe more. 35, yeah, so soybean vessels equivalent to about four and a half million tons of soybeans. That's a lot of soybeans.
SPEAKER_01:Not from us, no competitor. Zero, zilly. Are you telling me? Stop. Are you telling me that the United States government just funded and made the Argentine ag economy better?
SPEAKER_00:Well, I don't know about better, but these are the unintended consequences of actions, and this is why the U.S. ag sector is supported more than some people may think it should be, because now it looks like China is covered on their soybean needs, maybe until the end of this year. And this is the time period, Tommy, in which China usually and historically has come to the U.S. Right because Brazil and Argentina 70% or more of their imports uh of the from us because Brazil and Argentina is planting their their new crop. Well, this got Senator Grassley very upset, and he put out a uh an X, a tweet of the old tweets, and gave the attention to the White House saying, wait a minute, I don't like what you're doing here. I just did. I kicked myself out of the show and came back in. I got gonged on my own show. I think we have the Grassley quote.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, do we have the Grassly quote?
SPEAKER_00:There it is.
SPEAKER_01:Did he disappear there?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, right there. There's Grassley. Yeah, read it out loud. Basically, he said, You're gonna help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers' biggest market. We should use leverage at every turn to help hurting our farm economy. Family farmers should be top of mind in negotiation by the representatives of the USA. He's probably right there. But that's why Trump said what he did in the White House this week. That's why uh Brooke Rollins at USDA said uh help is on the way on that one. So, yes.
SPEAKER_01:Crazy. Hey, I think I know what's wrong. My mouse is uh running out of battery, but if that happens again, well, I I have the super awesome gaming mouse, but it stays charged like three, four days. Speaking of staying charged, ASA critical of aid. What's that mean?
SPEAKER_00:Well, what we just talked about on Argentina, American Soybean Association's president came out and just fired a really targeted statement against the Argentina aid and and and basically again told the White House hey, the we're more than upset here. This this is hurting the U.S. soybean sector.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, that's not good. That's not good. All right, but who could fix it all? Who could fix it all? Raleigh?
SPEAKER_00:Well, you know what you know when you're in trouble when you have a five-part plan. I learned that a long time ago.
SPEAKER_01:Doesn't China have a five-year plan?
SPEAKER_00:They have a five-year plan. We have a five-part plan. Pat Roberts, when he was uh Representative Roberts from Kansas, then he was Senator Roberts from Kansas, he was the House Ag Committee Chairman, then the Senate Ag Committee Chairman. He would always say, you know, if things get rough, you better in your back pocket have a five-part plan to get out of the hole.
SPEAKER_01:Well, let's go over what this is, and I'm gonna disappear for 30 seconds and go get the board, but you just keep talking. Go ahead.
SPEAKER_00:She was uh Rollins was in Kansas City at a at a meeting, at an Outlook meeting. And here's her plan. And I'm gonna first say what the five parts are one is relief for farmers, two is driving down input costs. To me, the story of the year for agriculture is the input cost. Three, expanding trade and market access. We've talked about trade policy all for every podcast we've been on, and she has she that's part of her plan. Four is boosting biofuels and commodity demand. And of course, you need that. Moer, even though we have record corn exports, we still have low corn prices and soybeans we've already talked about. And the fifth one is protecting U.S. farmland and livestock. Now, let's go it through very, very briefly, bullet by bullet. For the relief for farmers, she mentioned that the additional$2 billion, we call them top-up payments in the ECAP would be announced. Well, they announced it this morning. If you recall, the economic aid program, ECAP uh ECAP, was approved by Congress December 21st last year. Well, USDA previously paid out a little over eight billion dollars, but they had an 85% allocation factor to it. Now USDA, and this is why we call it top up, they're adding 14 percentage points to that, from 85 to 99 percent. That's a chunk of change. And and they're they're really they they released it today. There's some nuances in it, but still, farmers are going to get the additional$2 billion, and the payment factor goes from 85 to 99 percent.
SPEAKER_01:And then, real quick for the people in the back who couldn't hear us, which is me, when I walked away for a minute, where's this money come from?
SPEAKER_00:Well, this comes from the uh from the CCC, from the Commodity Credit Corporation. So it's it's there, and and it was authorized by Congress in the in the December 21st bill. I don't know whether that was a separate authorization or not. I'm gonna have to double check on that. But anyway, she didn't mention what Trump said at the White House. Remember, we we we we we talked about the trade mitigation payment. Usually farmers' emails came in to me right away. How much money are they talking about? I have no idea how much or when. I've heard I've heard levels from anywhere from$12 billion to$40 billion. I I do think that they'll wait until near the end of the year in order to assess how did the crop situation work out? Do they have a trade agreement with China by the end of the year? How are these other trade agreements working out and things like that? So that's to be determined lately. That's the relief for farmers so far, okay. Two is driving down input costs, and she went through them. Fertilizers up 37%, fuel 32 percent, labor 47, interest payments 73 since 2020, since the 2020. Now it's back away. But that tells you the cost spiral vice that that that uh that uh that farmers are in, primarily real crop, real crop producers. Now, here's what got the most attention, Tommy. She mentioned that there's a new USDA Department of Justice memorandum that's setting up an antitrust scrutiny of seed fertilizer and markets. Now, I personally think it's more jaw boning. I think that they wanted to get that out, but it affected the individual stocks that day that she announced.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, the fertilizer stocks explained and the seed companies.
SPEAKER_00:I checked it right away four, five, six percent. It hit them. But uh so I think it's more jaw boning, but at least they're gonna look into this. So that's again, that's coming. And then she mentioned that they ended use of the farm labor survey, they're gonna streamline the H2A guest worker program. That's for for agriculture. But point three, expanding trade and market access. And we've talked a lot about this. She mentioned also that the week before she had a three-point plant on trade.
SPEAKER_01:There's a lot of points here.
SPEAKER_00:Well, she's she mentioned the trade agreement, seven trade agreements so far that impacted agriculture, the big ethanol uh sale in the in the United Kingdom, the Japanese trade agreement, etc. And there'll be more to come. Then boosting biofuels and commodity demand. That's that's their fourth point. Now, they have been good relative to the renewable fuel standard program. We still have to see what they're going to do under the reallocation on the SREs. So, and the E-15, they gave emergency waivers, but we're still waiting on California's use of E-15 if their governor signs that bill. We don't know whether he'll sign it yet. And she said they're immediately going to purchase 470, 417,000 metric tons of U.S. commodities for International Food Aid. They've already done that. I think they made an announcement. They made an announcement this morning. Well, well, what's that equivalent to? 16 million bushels of row crops. That's that's the that's the it's it's a step in the right direction. So, and then five is protecting U.S. farmland and livestock. Now, this is where we get into it. Protecting U.S. farmland, that's really China. They're gonna they're still looking into how much land China owns. And I know Rollins was on the Laura Ingram show on five.
SPEAKER_01:I saw that one, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:And Laura just really hit on that. I mean, she's really anti-China, and she drilled in on that. So they're they're they're continuing to check on that. Then she mentioned the New World Screwworm, and she came out after Mexico on that one. She said basically they've been they haven't been doing their job uh of uh checking the traps, uh watching them a little closer. So she gave more than a heads up to Mexico to uh work better in a cooperative spirit. Now, Mexico said they are, so but it's what are they gonna say, right? Well, yeah, it's getting closer and closer to the U.S. border. We're 70 miles at last count. So some people say it's just a matter of time before it gets into the U.S. I hope they're wrong on that one because we'll have trade uh problems on that, and it's hard to get rid of once once you know, once it starts. But the biggest one on cattle is what kind of aid program are they gonna have? Now, you'll recall we talked about this last week.
SPEAKER_01:Yes, we did.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, and what she did say is which I I give her, I'll give her a good shout out.
SPEAKER_01:We're talking about Secretary Egg Rollins here.
SPEAKER_00:Yes, she dismissed speculation that USDA would subsidize producers to retain heifers rather than send them to slaughter. Here's her direct quote We see how the government getting involved can completely distort markets, and so currently there will be no plan. No plan is even under consideration to insert ourselves through payments into the beef cattle industry. Now, she said in the month of October, they're going to announce some things that will aid the livestock industry, that's to be determined. I think they're going to make some more federal land available, probably grazing and stuff like that. But I think it's going to be limited. There's not much the government can do. But let's go back to the no-direct payments to the beef cattle industry. I remember when President Reagan was around and Dick Ling was his USDA secretary, and they announced a whole herd uh dairy buyout program. And it was good for dairy, but what they didn't think through is that they put a lot of hamburger onto the marketplace by the whole herd dairy buyout. And that just caved in the beef market, especially the hamburger market. And uh National Cattlemen's Beef Association at the time was more than upset. And I think that's the history of NCBA uh being very careful about direct payments to the cattle industry. In fact, for years, maybe they're that it it uh it's still the place. They didn't even want a title in the farm bill for really for cattle. Yeah, they want hands off, hands off. So I think she went the right way there. However, on the other side, remember a week before Rollins threw out that uh aid is coming for the for the cattle industry. Well, she set up expectations. Here's why uh I mean, she's doing it for many reasons, but President uh Trump uh a couple of weeks ago was asked in the White House about beef prices.
SPEAKER_01:I remember that.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, he knew what Rollins did and USDA did, not just Rollins, has it at the uh at the National Economic Council on eggs. Remember when egg prices were so high? Well, she had a what's a something point plan, probably three-point plan. And it did help. It did help. Now, Trump doesn't know the life cycle of the cattle cycle, he doesn't know it takes two to three years, turnaround, and things like that. But he said at the time, we're gonna do something about beef prices. Well, her biggest constituency, Rollins, is her boss, Trump, and that's why I think she galvanized into action. But her staff is uh uh I know it's advising be very careful what you do because you don't want to follow up the marketplace because we've got to jump in here as a broker.
SPEAKER_01:I gotta jump in here as a commodity trader and broker. We locked up all the back months of feeder cattle this week limit up, and we have new expanded limits. It's not like the old days where we go up three, we went up 925 in feeders, and there was hundreds of millions of dollars exchanged hands just by that one comment.
SPEAKER_00:See that it's that can happen. Yeah, that but ag secretaries don't realize their words have market significance, but they do something like that.
SPEAKER_01:They do, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:I mean let alone the president. Can you imagine?
SPEAKER_01:The president does, so you have to be very careful. Trading places in the orange lot. Yes, true. Speaking of trading places, we had uh active this news came out, but then we had uh hog inventories.
SPEAKER_00:Fewer of them, right? And that's why you should have had a bullish day today. I didn't look at the very bullish inventory.
SPEAKER_01:Very bullish.
SPEAKER_00:You've got what lean hogs over a hundred dollars, right?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, when you get out to the summer months next year, yeah. Yeah, as a matter of fact, I talked to a few hog clients today. I don't do their risk, but they're good friends of mine, and they they are very active in the hog business. And they said uh it's kind of mixed feelings. They're like, Oh, we're gonna owe a ton of money in margin calls. I'm like, are you rooting for the market to go up or down? What is it? Like, if you produce hogs or beef, you want the market to go up. But if you sell futures, as you know, and that's why we got that disclaimer here. I'll run that disclaimer futures and options have risk. I also, on a side note, had a cattle producer call me today. He goes, What's going on? Cattle are down several days in a row. And I I hate to be sarcastic jerk. I said, You know, cattle are allowed to go down, they can go down. Like I know you're in the biggest bull market ever, but you can't call the not you can't call the office whenever the hell you want. But if you want me to be all emotional because cattle went down for a few days, look at where they've been.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, this is the biggest bull market in history, and the longest, one of the longest ones for at these levels. Now, let's connect dots here. Okay, Trump said he wanted to take some action to lower beef prices.
SPEAKER_01:Correct.
SPEAKER_00:Now, this is a sensitive issue. You asked some U.S. cattle producers, they don't like the possibility that he will exempt Brazil from the 50% tariffs for them sending their hamburger to us. Right now, they're hit with that 50% tariffs. Now, at the United Nations on Tuesday, Trump gave a rousing speech. He basically took the United Nations on and told them very bluntly, as only Trump can, you're not doing your job.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, that was the day the teleprompter broke and the escalator elevator broke, right?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and there was a third thing in there that that's under investigation, by the way. Just odd.
SPEAKER_01:I don't know what the third thing is. You have to tell me off the camera. All right, it sounds like a doozy.
SPEAKER_00:But if if that's one action he could take, because he mentioned during his speech to the United Nations General Assembly that he had right before he came on, he talked uh a little bit with Brazil's president, and they're going to quote meet next week. I don't I don't know whether it's a face-to-face or or a virtual one or on the telephone, but that could be a possibility of them further exempting some products. Now, again, I don't think the cattle uh the people in the U.S. want that because that that would be a little negative for the uh hamburger market for their perspective, but it would help the consumers, there's no doubt about it.
SPEAKER_01:But we have to report both sides.
SPEAKER_00:Like absolutely, absolutely.
SPEAKER_01:We can't be the biggest cheerleaders here for the cattle people and say uh 99% of America who doesn't want higher beef prices. Sorry, we're rooting for the 1%. I mean, we're we're gonna get hate mail some candidates when they say we're jersey.
SPEAKER_00:Well, especially with cattle, because you've got the different uh components of the cattle industry, right? Yeah, and so what's good for one may be not good for another, you know, the backgrounders, etc. So yeah, yeah, and there's there's always volatile when it comes to policy, but that is something to watch out for next week, Tommy. Okay, when he meets with Brazil's president, however, he's gonna meet. Is hamburger gonna be uh exempt from the 50% tariffs, or will he take them off? Because before he put the 50% tariffs on, we had a surplus of of trade with Brazil. So uh he did it because of emotion, because of what the current president is doing to Trump's friend, the previous president of Brazil. Okay. So we'll see what happens. But that is a an element to watch for next week.
SPEAKER_01:All right. This next headline, I thought when I first clicked it, it said Trump, but that's not Trump.
SPEAKER_00:That's Prop 12. But do we have food prices? I think we have food price. Let's go to food prices because that's a better fit. We'll come back. No, that's Prop 12. Food prices? I think we got well, we need to talk food prices. Maybe we don't have it.
SPEAKER_01:Maybe we have the graphic. We're gonna have to talk our way through it.
SPEAKER_00:Okay, well, the food price report came out this week and it showed again further increases in food prices at all levels at home, especially at restaurants, etc. And when you look at the food price report, it was the beef sector that really came up. And and Trump seeing all these stories, and that's really what he just looks at headlines, probably put out those statistics. USDA. They they do it every month, they put out a food price update.
SPEAKER_01:And I'm sure the Federal Reserve looks at that, like Greenspan would be USB. Oh, they would they would look at the Paul. Right.
SPEAKER_00:That's one, and oh yeah, they definitely, because that's one of the things that uh trade policy, the tariffs, and food prices are two major components that's making Jerome J. Powell, the Fed chairman, nervous about uh sticky uh inflation. And when you look at USDA's own numbers, they don't show food prices coming down. Now the rate of increase is is lower, but still you've got very sensitive issues. And it could play into the 2026 elections, Tommy, for the House and Senate, if the food prices don't come down uh much, because I know that will be well uh one of the key features.
SPEAKER_01:President Trump run ran on that. That I'm gonna get the price of oil and energy down, food costs down, this down. You know what he forgot to mention? Electricity's exploded, insurance has exploded, insurance on every facet, not just what's insurance, mean your home insurance, your auto insurance, your health insurance, any insurance, life insurance has exploded. And that's something that they uh the the government can't hit a button and say insurance companies lower that. That the insurance companies would be like, well, why are we in the business of insuring people if we can't make a little money doing this? Right?
SPEAKER_00:This is why Democrats in their campaigning are telling me one word is important to them now affordability. Can you afford can you afford these things? And it's getting harder and harder, and they're gonna have increased pressure if we don't lower interest rates. What you had Brent uh crude oil, what$70 again?
SPEAKER_01:Yep.
SPEAKER_00:So that's that's on the right, and that's geopolitics. Yeah, that's what that ties into geopolitics and the and the war going on between Ukraine and Russia and Trump's dramatic flip-flop. Now he's uh more tilting far more toward Ukraine. And he realizes he'll never say this, but uh Putin played Trump. He shouldn't have believed Trump. Uh, he shouldn't believe Putin. Putin's a thug, he's a thug. Uh uh and he believed he's for too long.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, who knows where you live. I know where you live, Jim. We smile.
SPEAKER_00:The clock is ticking on me, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01:All right, let's go back to Triumph.
SPEAKER_00:I I was messing us up, and I didn't this is their second attempt at taking on the Prop 12, and that's the one where you have to have certain size cages for hogs. Uh, it's called California. Yeah. And he said Congress has already acted and regulates uh pork production in in our country. In other words, interstate commerce, don't let California dictate to us. Now, the Supreme Court initially ruled against the Farm Bureau and National Pork Producers Council in their in their charge against California's Prop 12. They lost that battle. But within the ruling, Justice Kavanaugh, when you really read the ruling, basically told the pork industry well, if here's the way you should have done it. So now Triumph now has filed another case, and we'll see if the Supreme Court takes that up.
SPEAKER_01:We're gonna see that be interesting. That'd be interesting. Like we didn't have enough on our plate. Is the government gonna shut down?
SPEAKER_00:You know, uh last week I would have said no, this week probably so. October 1. Now, here's the situation. The House, led by the Republicans, approved a what we call a stopgap spending bill or a CR continuing resolution until November 21st. That's not a long time, but still they say that that would give Congress enough time to approve individual spending bills. There's 12 of them, the USDA's one, Energy Department, Interior, etc. Now, when it went over to the Senate, they needed 60 votes, and the Republicans only have 53. So they needed some Democrat votes, they didn't get them. So that was defeated in the Senate. And then also the Democrats had an alternative that they wanted till the end of October stopgap spending bill, and they want more, a little over a trillion dollars in additional spending on Obamacare, health care issues, yeah, uh more for national public radio and things like that. Well, that was a no-stop for the uh for the Republicans. So where are we at? Now, earlier this week, the Office of Management and Budget, led by Russell Volt, V O U G H T, came out and said, if there's a shutdown of the government, we're going to have a uh not just rifts, reduction in force, we're going to fire, if you will, more than a few the uh government people who are not essential. So the Democrats think that's a threat. I'm not quite so sure. So that that's the dilemma. We have both sides digging in. Let's just say at the 11th and a half hour they work a short-term compromise to extend funding for whatever time. It's still gonna be an issue, Tommy, because whenever they come back to the issue, you're going to have still the debate over the spending levels and what far and things like that. What I said earlier today on Agri-Talk is the solution was appropriators and Congress, both political parties, both have not done their job for years, finish the individual appropriation bills, and you wouldn't have this mess at the end of the fiscal year if Congress would only do their job. So if we do have a government shutdown, the hardest thing is how do they come back after after both sides are so entrenched? And what's the impact on uh on agriculture? Most of your payments, ARC, PLC, Conservation Reserve Program, are mandatory programs and they're not affected by a government shutdown. You still have to have people to push the button to send the money, but it would affect the crop production report in October because NAS should be going out probably Monday with some of their surveys if they haven't done it a little earlier. And but if there's a government shutdown, you won't have an October crop production report because they won't uh the the they won't have the ability to to to do the work. So we may have to wait until later on to get the next update on the size of U.S. corn soybeans and other crops, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01:That'd be tough, right?
SPEAKER_00:That's all involved. That's all involved. Yeah, because now this it looks like open sea, and and I mean when you look at the weather, there's gonna be a lot of uh uh you know, yeah, a lot of combines outside. Hammered down. Yeah, you're where you're here. We go. Here we go.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, so we have all these bushels coming in, poor basis, poor price. We just cut a deal with Argentina, they sold a not a boatload, like multiple boatloads of grain. It's really upsetting people, Jim. And I'll tell you, it is on this show. I don't know if you look at the YouTube comments, but there's some doozies, and folks, we want you to comment good, bad, whatever. We'll give them each a heart. We don't care. I mean, we we care you watch the show and we care that you're passionate. There's a lot, I mean, you some people are beyond passionate, they're angry. Well, they're angry at this administration.
SPEAKER_00:Well, it you on the one side, you can't blame them because on the trade policy, it's a high risk. Now, I would say give it a little more time, things like that. But I can hear them. There, there's an element to be listened to uh out there. They want trade, not aid, is what I hear all the time in my emails when I go out and give speeches, which by the way, October 5th to the 8th, I'll be in Savannah, Georgia, one of the towns I love the most. And then at the crop insurance uh agents meeting, SEPA on that. But there is more than building frustration in the uh ag circle. There's a recession, more than a recession out there in the row crop producers. The story of the year so far, Tommy, is the input cost we mentioned, seed, uh fertilizer, manufactur uh uh uh farm equipment, etc. That was well epidemic.
SPEAKER_01:Not going down. I just recorded a podcast for this with uh the land talker, Jim Rothermick, and he said cash rents only went down a sliver from last year, whereas the price of the commodities has gone down a bunch and their inputs have gone up. That's really hurting the American farmer.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and see the the conundrum, if you will, is when you offer aid to producers to the level that we're gonna see multi-billion dollars, that gets bit into land prices, cash rents, etc., and input prices. And that's uh you know, that's the dilemma that that what do you do? Now there's there's uh more than a few farmers now saying, you know, maybe we just shouldn't have all this aid. But here's what they don't tell you, Tommy. It relates to food prices. Why I say that? If you didn't have nearly the amount of corn and soybean acres, I mean, we're not gonna have acreage idling program again. They can't by law. The farm bill says no acreage idling program. Now they can come in the back door with conservation types, but they're not gonna do it. But for those farmers, and I hear you that say, you know, boy, what it just all this aid gets built in to inputs, land, cash rants, and things and you don't let the market work in that. The reason is if this folds down where uh X number of acres are not planted, then in foreign policy circles you food is security. It's national security too. So you pay for it one way or the other, whether at the supermarket are in taxpayer income transfer payments. Now, food is not cheap, but it would be a lot higher than it would be had if we don't support the aggregate farmer out there, right? Not the discussion, not some of the ones who can handle it, right? But the the probably the majority of farmers who are in a cash flow bind. That's really the reason. And so as we connect dots here, you think the the Federal Reserve wouldn't be interested if if we're not gonna produce as much, or the White House, if they see, hey, what if if we throttle back here, it's gonna elevate the food price situation. Then you would have the big uh focus on agriculture again. That's really why you spend a lot a lot of money. I don't have any qualms of having taxpayer money go to the ag sector. I hear the other side in spades that say, let the market work. But in this town, I remember years ago in a farm bill debate, Pat Roberts had a freedom to farm bill, but it was defeated because Washington didn't allow freedom to fail. See, so if you don't let the market work itself out, and it takes a while for the market, market can be very brutal, as you know, Tommy. Very brutal. They wouldn't allow that. Washington wants winners, winners, they don't want winners losers, and that's the that's really the whole issue that we're talking about in one fell swoop as we connect dots here. So that's why you huh?
SPEAKER_01:I want to connect one more dot. Sure. It's hard to get a word in edgewise with you, but that's why I love it. But you're gonna appreciate this. Doesn't this stem all the way back to Dr. Earl Butts 50 years ago? We're gonna farm fence post to fence post. And I quote him, he said, America's single greatest advantage is what it pays for food. Back then we were paying 13% of all Americans' income was going to food. That gives them more money to buy houses, cars, educate, and everything else at a time when other nations were spending 50% of their income on food. The stage is yours, Mr. Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_00:Bingo. And but if you yes, and if you increase the food prices too much, who does it affect the most? The middle to low income people. That's another reason why you have income transfers for the ag sector. I'll go back to Earl Butts because I was around when when uh he when when he was uh ag secretary, I heard him give many speeches and that. He when he the exact quote that he always gave, he said, you know, I didn't tell farmers to plant fence row to fence row, the market did. And and what he says is the market's fickle. And I also remember him Earl Butts when he went on meet the press years ago. Remember, this was under the Reagan administration Nixon or Reagan? Nixon Nixon administration. And when when he got on, and and that's when the food prices were going up, and Earl was a great communicator. He brought in a loaf of of uh wonder bread, a full loaf, and he opened it up and he picked up one loaf of bread, and he pitched the corner out of one piece of bread, and he held it up to the camera, and he said, This is what the U.S. farmer gets from one piece of bread. It was very little, and so he made his point. Don't blame the farmer for uh overall for food prices. It's it's a it's a it's a it's a gambit of reasons when food prices go up.
SPEAKER_01:All righty, let's take it from the top. I want to give away some stuff. Heck of a show. You're amazing. Let's just do this. Let's talk about you. If you'd like to get uh Jim's newsletter letter right there, Jim. It's Weissmeyer Gmile, and uh I have that popped up right there because people are having a problem. It's a simple email, and uh, I want to just take a minute and promote myself real quick. The AgBull team has a really good uh series coming out, and what it is is it's it's AgBull, it's premium. It's it's what you get here when you uh subscribe. And the Weissmeyer show is free, but we are partnering up with some of the best names in agriculture, some of the best minds, but that's behind it's closed. You have to pay for it. So it's$25 a month,$250 a year. Uh, right before we started the show, we had another uh premium subscriber paid the$250. Always makes me happy that people are willing to pay for content. Go to www.agbull.com, look at uh ag Intel premium stuff. The jim weesmeyer's kind enough to do this show and we put it out there for public for those of you listening out on the uh interweb. Thank you for uh click, liking, and subscribe. We're gonna take it from the top. I'm gonna start off with this this picture. Does this guy have the American farmers back?
SPEAKER_00:Oh, absolutely. He does, in my judgment, because of what he said at the White House, and he knows uh year in and year out election, year in and year out, that uh 62 to 65 percent of all rural voters, that's just not farmers and ranchers, rural vote uh votes Republican. Now, he's gonna be challenged, but for some of the reasons that we've said food prices, the cash flow problem, etc., energy prices, interest rates, etc. So it's not a given.
SPEAKER_01:And and that leads me into this next slide. Well, bear debate. I want to talk about some of the things that were bullish this week. We had cattle prices for the most part did pretty well. They had extreme volatility, whether they're up or down in the week. The trend's still up. Hog prices exploded, gold exploded, silver exploded, crude oil at six-week highs, Wall Street still doing okay. It had a couple down days, but overall it's doing well. To me, Jim, these are inflationary things. If food prices go up, that's not that big of a deal. It hurts people, but when energies go up, that is such a bigger component to inflation. When you get energies going up, when you get food prices going up, and then the feds lowering interest rates. You mentioned that word, which I did know conundrum. If I didn't know better, they may be backing themselves into a corner where the American economy is too hot, they're lowering interest rates. Could inflation roar its ugly head? I don't know.
SPEAKER_00:It's a because of stagflation. Your growth is limited where your inflation stuff stays in that two and a half to three percent uh uh range, and that's not good. That's that's stagflation. So we're in a pickle right now, and we're gonna have to see what happens. Maybe uh once the tax cuts come in and investment starts, and some of this trade policy uh some semblance of stability, if it can, then maybe we can get the U.S. economy off and going. But until now, what you just said, uh the safe haven is gold and and other commodities. You go to gold when when it's on uncertainty. Look at the dollar, the volatility of the dollar.
SPEAKER_01:You know what had a bad day yesterday. Bitcoin was down 4,000 a coin, and and gold's still going up, and Bitcoin's, yeah, whatever. I mean, the the the the Bitcoin bulls have had their run. Trust me, anyone who's invested in it doesn't have a day job anymore, right? I'm not bashing Bitcoin, but gold's really taken off. All right, from the top, we got I think the two biggest headlines of the week are Trump bucks. We got that money coming to you. I don't know when, but they talked about it. Rollins talked about it, President Trump talked about it. And by far, the biggest thing happening is the government's promising us money, yet they might shut down. And this is what it looks like. But I'll let you do closing thoughts, Mr. Weesmeyer, before we get out of here to stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00:To show you the spread and the breadth of U.S. agriculture, some of my emails come coming in this week said, Do you think that they can wait until next year from a tax basis to give us these payments? That's just perspective. Where I think the other side saying, I need cash flow, I need it now. That tells you the dilemma of some of these uh payments. Overall, I would say lots of uncertainty as we saw this week. The lawmakers are in fisticuffs almost, literally, with each other. And this is why Congress has such low approval ratings. If we see the shutdown of government, I don't care whether you're Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, etc., you should shake your head and saying, what in the Sam H is going on in Washington, D.C. As far as agriculture is concerned, big harvest a weekend, as we talked about. I remember for years I would go to Buceris, Ohio. My good friend, farmer friend Bob Wagner, who's no longer with us. I would I would go and and and to his great family, and I'd once again see the pleasures of harvesting corn and soybeans. I miss him and I miss doing that. But still, we're gonna see a lot of harvest, and that's the positive side. I don't care what political corner you're on, farmers produce.
SPEAKER_01:Well said. All right, I got a three-point plan here. Tommy Grasafi Eggbow Media Eggbo podcast. We're gonna give away American flags. Had I got a case of flags, and every week we're gonna give away a few flags. If you've listened to this podcast at till the end here on Apple or Spotify or wherever you enjoy listening to podcasts, please do us a favor, click like and subscribe, send this to a friend. Here's the number 1-855-737-Farm, 1-855-737 Farm. We're giving away three, three free flags. That's compliments of uh Mr. Tommy Grossoffee and Mr. Wiesmeyer. You've been listening to Wiesmeyer's perspectives, the one and only Jim Wiesmeyer. I knew we'd go long. I don't know where he keeps all that stuff in his head. My mouse made it to the end. Jim, next week's gonna be interesting. God willing, we'll be here to tell the story. Thank you, my friend. Thank you.
