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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
AG Bull
Don Wick | Gold & Silver Explode Higher Corn Sinks
Gold and silver rip to record highs while crude softens and soybeans slide, and we sort signal from noise across rates, tariffs, and safe-haven flows. Field reports from North Dakota reveal frost, disease, and wind shaping yields as cattle stays firm and DC stalls.
• safe-haven metals surging amid uncertainty
• rate expectations, Fed chatter, and 10-year hover
• crude softening as the real-economy signal
• tariff threats, rare earth tensions, and posturing
• soybean futures pressure vs improving North Dakota basis
• field updates on frost, foliar disease, and high winds
• government shutdown impact on payments and outlook
• cattle strength and screwworm control debate
• risk management with call re-ownership and timing
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Thank you, Tommy G
Happy Monday everyone. Tom Grassofi, AgBO Media, Agbol Trading, Agble Podcast, Agbol everything. Search Ag Bull. You'll find us on all social medias and all places you can get content like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, all that jazz. Well, we're gonna call this Monday Madness. We're gonna bring in the one and only Don Wick. And I'm gonna ask him, because I know he knows, why silver up three dollars? All-time high in silver. Why's gold up a hundred and fifteen dollars? When I was a kid, gold was only two hundred and fifty dollars. Now, he may not have the answers for that, but he'll know a bunch of other things. Mr. Don Wick, Red River Farm Network, a friend of the show. And the man with all the answers, easy questions only. Stage is yours.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, I don't know if I have the answer for that, but we've always said that those precious metals are kind of that safe haven when we've got times of uncertainty, and there's no doubt we've got a lot of chaos going on in the marketplace. I'm curious what does it mean for interest rates?
SPEAKER_00:It seems like they're kind of locked in, but we've got another reporter and you're flipping it back to me. Yeah, you just flip it back to me.
SPEAKER_01:You go and back to you, Mr. Wick. Great question because I had a client actually say, he said, you know, with gold up 115 and silver up three bucks, that is not that does not mean interest rates are calming down. Now, the stock market's having a huge bounce today. The interest rates 10-year yield right now is around 405, 410. Fed just came out. There was some Fed chatter on the tapes. They said uh two more rate cuts, quarter point, quarter point. But that that gets that interest rate thing going. Gold going up's important, but crude going down to these lower to the upper 50 levels. I don't know if you put any gas in your uh red Jeep that you drive up there, but uh, I put some 250, 240 gas in, and I think fuel and energy would way eclipse who really needs gold on a day-to-day basis, right? It's something we talk about, it's fun to talk about who needs silver, but energy we use all the time. So keep an eye on that. We'll a great gauge of that, folks, if you want to go out there and just search CRB, the uh overall commodity index, and see how that's doing. But yes, Mr. Wick, there's no way you could say, Oh, we're not gonna have interest rates or inflations or anything because gold goes up$115, silver goes up three dollars. They both hit record highs. We gotta talk about inflation, correct?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, no doubt. Is there a spillover that uh well it's obviously not happening in the grain trade, but is there any impact, uh, any influence when we get into the regular commodities?
SPEAKER_01:Not not a lot. So we let's go back to Friday. You and I were gonna record Friday. We may start recording more on Mondays. Every Friday I cancel on you because I'm like, oh, you're not gonna believe what Trump tweeted. I can't get in front of my camera. That we had this big effect of the the Trump X tweet through social in the stock market sold off, Bitcoin crypto sold off big time, had one of its biggest moves. And folks, what you need to remember is it's not Bitcoin 10,000 right now, it's Bitcoin 125,000 that went down to 110,000. So the the amount of money involved is so much greater. We've had some big moves in the equities. NASDAQ, many people would say it was way overbought. We had a big Nasdaq sell-off, but we had the effect of Friday, and we had that that you hear this word a lot, Don. Maybe you can give folks a better idea. What's it mean when someone says posturing? Posturing. Is that what we saw over the weekend with Trump Vance coming in saying, you know what, China, we we're we're still buddies with them? Is that posturing? What's it mean? All the every every quote I see, oh, we're posturing.
SPEAKER_02:I think the White House saw what happened on on Wall Street, and they had to correspond uh in some kind of fashion. They had to back off from the some of the threats they had on Friday, don't you think?
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely. That it was a little much, it really, really moved markets. It uh very much affected soybeans. And I guess if I was uh to write anything, I'm Tommy's list of what I'm disappointed in today is that soybeans sold off 16-18 cents. Granted, it was a harvest weekend, we're having harvest pressure, but that really just if you wanted to say it's safe to say we have no deals coming through with China anytime soon, yeah, in OND, October, November, December. Now, on a positive note, I don't know if you looked at cash markets by you in North Dakota, but that basis improved tremendously in North Dakota last week. And I think there's a reason why. What are you hearing on yields? I hear that frost kicked North Dakota soybean yields butts on.
SPEAKER_02:We're also hearing things like white and wool having its impact. We're getting out in the combine and seeing some disease issues. We've had that stretch of wet weather that created some anxiety with some of the foliar diseases, both in corn and soybeans. Uh, so those are some of the challenges that we've uh had as of late. Still a good crop. We had some tremendously strong winds. I hope some of that corn's still standing today because this weekend it was 50 mile an hour winds across North Dakota, and that's hard to hard to hold that corn crop up in that kind of situation.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, absolutely. What uh how much rain did y'all receive up there? Did they did it delay sugar beet harvest?
SPEAKER_02:I frankly didn't uh touch base with uh American Crystal this morning, but the area had basically half an inch to maybe an inch in some areas. I don't think it was enough to slow them down too much for sugar beets.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, those boys know how to get after it. So, folks I talked to, Don, uh, yields uh a little disappointing in beans, no no fault of genetics or anything else. Things were actually off to a good start. Just that that little adverse weather on that frost probably really took off some topside. There was a lot of potential up there. I hear the corn's doing a lot better than the beans. We're I got some calls out to some people. When I put a text out or an alert out, hey folks, buy back some beans. I had no problem on Friday when beans were down asking people to buy back some beans because we're fighting with China today, but we may not be fighting with them in a month or two, and we may have a uh if we have a production problem in South America, we could still have a uh big bull market. If silver can go up three dollars in one day, corneal and soybeans may someday, it's not today, ride up high, you know, ride rise up higher again someday. I it's hopeful thinking, but no, obviously with the call option, you you invest what you invest in you you no margin calls there. Not that you have to buy one, but it wasn't a hard sale, is my point. I'm not trying to sell anyone here on today's show, but when beans are down 20 on a Trump tweet, you know, you have that saying, the old taco, you know, Trump always caves in. So and then over the weekend he did, right?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, he put out uh another post on Truth Social basically saying that uh the USA does not want to hurt China, it wants them to stay strong as well. So uh much softer tone than what we saw on the uh on the Friday tweet that he had with 100% tariffs being added to the tariffs they already have in place. The Chinese foreign ministry Tommy came up this morning releasing a statement basically in response, I think, back to Friday, saying threats are not the way to engage with with China. And they said if the U.S. would go through with those 100% tariffs, those rather aggressive tariffs, they would have to respond correspondingly. So they're pushing back as much as they can at this point.
SPEAKER_01:Interesting. Let's talk about government shutdowns. I know you have a good uh idea on the pulse of uh DC. I mean, obviously, what do you talk about when they're not there, right?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, well, the house is shut down and they does not look like Speaker Johnson's ready to to call them back into session. The Senate seems like they've been having votes, but it's just the same bill over and over again with the same results. It's not enough to get those 60 votes that that are needed. The Democrats are holding firm, they're focused in on those insurance premiums, they're gonna take a pretty big bump as of November 1. The Republicans are are saying they may address that maybe in a separate bill, but I'm not sure there's a lot of trust right now in uh on Capitol Hill for what either side is saying. So I don't see any quick resolution of this thing. Uh it's already gone. We're into what our past or second week.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, week two, and they say it could be the uh longest one in uh history.
SPEAKER_02:And the way we tell that, Don, is you look at the betting markets, and there's like a high chance this will go as long as it's the last one, the longest one was 35 34, 34 or 35 days back in 2018 and Trump won.
SPEAKER_01:Okay, we got a ways to go yet. Yeah, that's not good because people aren't getting paid. Speaking of getting paid, right here, status USDA payments until doors reopen. Now, this young lady, I do like her, and I'm gonna kind of talk, I don't want to say bad about her, but she seems to have this card where she she reads off of where she says, What's her line she says, Don? The golden age of agriculture is uh is just around the corner.
SPEAKER_02:That's been said by three, four times. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Well, what the hell? I don't see no golden age of agriculture happening. Do you, Mr.
SPEAKER_02:Wick? She said that at the cabinet meeting. To preface it, she did say right at the start that the farm economy is tough, talked about high input costs, put a lot of blame on the the trade deficit that came through the Biden administration, and and there's a lot of truth to that. But then again, follows up with uh good times are are are still a coming.
SPEAKER_01:Well, if we can't get this guy, he he said, remember that uh interesting thing, someone took a picture over his shoulder, and mutual friend of ours on the internet. Uh, he was actually looking at a tweet of someone uh we're buddies with on the internet. Pretty wild. Be careful what you tweet or tweet and tag these people because they're actually paying attention. Yeah, who knows? Maybe they're actually watching this video, but we'd love to have them on the show. But they're pretty busy. But it's hard for them to write a check with all that that's going on. Speaking of writing checks, uh, we're gonna write a lot of checks to try to control this little son of a biscuit right there. What do you know about screw worm in the cattle market just keeps marching on, Don? It it is.
SPEAKER_02:We're seeing stronger prices again today, and uh that's after some some contract highs late last week again. We're still seeing that uh screw worm moving north. I think they had some more cases showing up some 70 miles south of uh of the US Mexican border, so it remains a bit pretty big concern. Sid Miller, the Texas Ag Commissioner, he makes the news quite often. He talked about some kind of insecticide that he wants to be able to utilize on screw worm. The concern they're pushing back because it would also impact some of the other more beneficial insects as well. So that's been kind of the regulatory hassle they've had on that uh solution. So but yeah, that Sid Miller's not shy telling what he thinks on this issue.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, well, they got a lot at state there. The uh, you know, everyone's got uh a lot. And I think at this point people are are a little scared to say, like, hey, we're gonna do this. No, we're not gonna do this. I think the what uh easy response or out is I know if I was a politician, I'd say we're aware of it, we're working on it. That's it. I mean, you start talking too much above that, and you're just gonna end up having to write a press release to correct what you said five minutes before, right, Don?
SPEAKER_02:Well, if they take their lesson from the big boss in in the Capitol, they're not afraid of snorting things.
SPEAKER_01:You're snorting on live TV. You mean this guy, the big boss? The big boss, yeah. All right, is that his pick when he got arrested, or is that the the the I think that's the official photo now? Yeah, yeah, that is it. That's awesome. I love it. All right. Well, this guy isn't getting along well with this guy. What do you know?
SPEAKER_02:Oh, uh just like you said, Friday they talked about uh the 100% tariffs because of China basically uh ramping up the regulation they have on the rare earth minerals that we used in just about everything in the in the tech world, from your smartphone vehicle that you drive and what have you. So that really got the president's attention. He talked about the increase in tariffs and also said there's no reason to be meeting with President G at the end of the month. Those two are supposed to get together in South Korea at that Asia Pacific uh conference, but Trump at that point said that uh wouldn't happen. But like you said, who knows? In two weeks, that could change three different times again.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I'd like to see the grain market uh respond a little better. I'm not not happy with how greens are doing today. All right, Don Wick, if people want to get a hold of you at the Red River Farm Network.
SPEAKER_02:Oh, shoot us a note. Uh my email is Don at RRFN.com and our website as well, rrfn.com. We have a month or a weekly e-newsletter called FarmNet News. We'd sure love to have you subscribe.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely. Speaking of subscribing, I'm Tom Grassofi, Ag Bowl Media, AgBull Trading. If you enjoy content like this, we now have premium content on the AgBull website,$25 a month,$250 annually. We're texting you on breaking news. You can call the trading desk, talk to us. Of course, we got morning reports, afternoon reports, and premium video content like this and much more. Of course, you see the Mr. Wick there on that show also. What should we leave people with to be optimistic in agriculture here? As we have Monday madness with gold and silver at all-time highs, Mr.
SPEAKER_02:Wick. Uh it's harvest time. I think no matter what's going on, attitudes stay pretty uh pretty good when we're bringing in a nice crop. And uh for the most part, we are Tommy. Sounds good.
SPEAKER_01:Don Wick, Red River Farm Network, time of your Safia Bo Media. We'll see you all next week. Thanks.
