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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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AG Bull
China Deal, USDA Data, And Cattle Volatility
We unpack the week’s swirl: China’s commitments, a reopened USDA, cattle volatility, a soybean basis snapback, and record corn chatter across the Upper Midwest. Stephen Vaden’s interview frames aid expectations and trade confidence as we look toward fast-moving data and holiday demand.
• China honoring ag purchase commitments and why it matters
• SNAP restart timing and near-term demand signals
• Cattle market volatility and producer risk management
• Screwworm risks and opposition to reopening the border
• Soybean basis recovery in North Dakota and cautious optimism
• Strong local corn yields versus national disease challenges
• Aid payments tied to current market conditions and high inputs
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Thank you, Tommy G
How are we doing everyone? Tom Grasafi, Agbo Media, Agbo Trading, joined by the one and only Jamie Dickerman. He's up in Grand Forks, North Dakota, Red River Farm Network. Jamie, we've got a lot talked about. We got pre-USDA jitters. We have the government open. We're going to be hit with more data than any geek could ever handle. We have cattle trading down pretty hard today. And you guys had an exclusive interview. It's about 10 minutes long. I encourage everyone to go to your website and listen to it. But let's start off there. Tell us what the great Mr. Don uh talked about with this young fellow right here.
SPEAKER_01:Well, uh, yeah, and great to be here, Tommy. You know, and uh yeah, our our own Don Wick had a chance to talk with Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden and great interview with him. He was very, very forthcoming with a lot of good information in there and talked a lot about uh different things, including, you know, one of the big questions, I guess, that everybody's asking, and and and we've seen the market kind of wonder this is you know, the whole deal with China. When that first came out, everybody was so excited about the fact that we finally have this deal with China, they're gonna buy X amount of beans, they're really gonna do it. We've got, you know, so this is great news for everybody. Everybody was so excited, and then all of a sudden, we haven't really seen anything, haven't seen much movement, and the markets are kind of going, hey, what gives here? Why, you know, what what's happening? And and and talking with Mr. Vaden about that, he says, look, the Chinese are gonna honor that agreement. And basically saying if if they don't, they know that they know who they're dealing with, and he's referring to President Trump and saying that, you know, you know, they don't want to they don't want to go back on the deal that that they made with with President Trump because that won't go well for them. So uh he's very confident that the Chinese will honor that agreement, and so I thought that was very interesting that he would say that.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, he seemed uh he seemed very confident. Let's just go that. We we gotta encourage everyone go to Red River Farm Network and search that story. What was that story called under your uh website?
SPEAKER_01:Uh he's got well, there's actually uh several different versions of it up there. If you just go to the uh rrfn.com uh website right now and you see there's there's different different stories and different headlines. Uh Vaden uh Beijing expected on or the deal, you know, the changing market conditions to influence aid package. There's a lot of different headlines there because we broke it up into several different stories because there was so much information in that interview, but because he covered basically everything. Uh it was good. It was really good.
SPEAKER_00:I just laughed at that. I texted down, I'm like, that was good stuff, and uh it was very uh important because it was on the eve of the government opening up. Now we're open. A little headline I heard from just uh noticed a headline from uh Rollin Snap folks will be recharged, she thinks by this weekend. Friday, Saturday, Snap cards will be going. I imagine it's gonna get busy at the stores. People need food, they need to start preparing for Thanksgiving. We're we're gonna see a little run on the old grocery market, and that's great for people because it's getting cold out there, and we got to take uh care of the good folks. And I think they'll get all their money back and more, but there is definitely a lag, and it's probably affecting our meat market. Speaking of that, let's jump right into cattle, cattle market in the sellers position today. And that bull market looking at a chart, it's still long-term over five years trending up, but boy, in the short short term, has it come down. Feeder cattle about a$45 range in the last 30 days. What are you hearing from people when you talk cattle, Jim?
SPEAKER_01:Well, it's interesting, you know, and and we when you take a look at what the sale barns have been doing around here and in the region, you know, the tri-state area, North Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota. When you look at those sale barns and you look at numbers for over the past month, and you've seen how much it just is such a variation, you know, between where it was, where it went to, and it didn't take long for it to go there either. So a lot of guys real con real conscientious of that, uh real real cautious of that. You know, it's a great time in the cattle market. We've seen the you know great numbers and and and things were good, but it's also a little bit scary of how volatile it is. And there's there's a lot of guys that are a little concerned about that. And and then, of course, when you throw in the mix of what you know the president had said and and making his comments about you know getting the price of beef down, that certainly made everybody you know run for the exits a little bit. And that uh unfortunately caused some some things to drop. And that's really why we've seen such such such volatility here lately. But just a volatile market, just a volatile time. It's you know, uh, one guy, I think uh when I was talking to him yesterday said, What a time to be alive, is what he said. Absolutely you know, just just a crazy, unprecedented time in the cattle world right now.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and keep an eye focused on coffee, the price of coffee that's tied to Brazil and the Brazil tariffs. I don't know if I've ever traded a coffee contract ever in my life. That may be one of the few commodities I've never traded. We've traded a few orange juice, a few lumber. I don't know if I've ever done coffee, and I'll just watch it from a distance from here. Love drinking the stuff though. Um but uh if Trump was to take off those uh tariffs from Brazil, that would have effect. I believe Rollins is down in Mexico or going to Mexico or talk of going to Mexico with the big group, and as it gets cold, they could let people let the cattle back in, and you know, they need to get colder to uh help alleviate some of that screw worm. But screw worm sounds pretty serious in Mexico, James, and I don't think we want that stuff here yet. We're used to taking in over a million head of cattle a year from Mexico.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, it's uh it's something that uh when you talk to anybody in the industry, they don't they don't want it. They don't want they don't want that border to be open right now. They they don't they don't feel comfortable with it, and they certainly don't want to deal with the screwworm issues. So I think I think you're gonna hear from anybody in the industry. I don't I don't think anybody's gonna say, yeah, open that thing up. And I I feel like USDA has been pretty uh cautious with it up to this point, and the way the way Secretary Rollins has talked about it, it doesn't appear like uh she's in any big hurry to open that thing up, and that's and that's I think a good thing for everybody in the industry. They don't they don't want to see it open right now, not until there's a much better handle on things with this screw warm issue. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Okay, we went through we got the AC Secretary, we talked about the USDA tomorrow. You talked to a lot of people over there at Red River Farm Network. Some people think yields could go up a little bit, some people think they can go down. The market's trading, like we're running out of soybeans, or we sold a bunch to China. North Dakota is the hub hub of all that because the you had the poorest cash basis of anywhere in the country this fall.$1.7500 to possibly no bid was the talk. Now all of a sudden, I have a lot of clients. Matter of fact, the second we get done recording, I gotta get back to work because folks are trading beans today on this massive rally we've had last few months. What are you hearing, my friend?
SPEAKER_01:I'm hearing that too. That uh a lot of guys are real real happy with what's happening, uh, at least uh in that uh regard. And and you know, it's it's it's amazing. The the bean crop itself, when you talk to guys uh growing the beans, they'll tell you that it was a very much a variable year around here. There's some areas that did really, really well, and then some areas that did not do that well. There's some disease concerns, uh mold, and certain things like that. So, I mean, there was there were different things that they had to put up with. Of course, there was some uh horrible weather situations here with some really bad uh storms, you know, uh duratios, tornadoes, you name it, taking things out. There was an early frost to deal with. So different things there that that caused that crop to be very variable around here. But that being said, uh the other part of that, of course, is the the uncertainty around the prices. And you mentioned the basis and everything, and in, you know, it just a real, real uncertain time, and it's good to to see some movement finally, some things happening and seeing some seeing some things going up in the right direction. And and I think I think there's a little more optimism around here when it comes to uh the soybeans when first of all, when they when they announced that deal a couple of weeks ago, and and there was actual talk about okay, look, the the the wheel is starting to turn here with the deal with China, things are gonna turn around a little bit, we're gonna start seeing some things happening, and then uh we started seeing those basis levels a little bit changing. So that is, I think, you know, I think there's some cautious optimism when it comes to that. Man, talk about crops, the ble the beans variable, but I'll tell you what, I don't know what they're gonna do about the the corn numbers in the report tomorrow. But any guy I talk to around here that grows corn, 90% of them have said this is one for the books around here. And so, I mean, at least where we're sitting, the corn could be a record crop for a lot of guys this year up in this part of the world. You know, I know that there was uh issues in some parts of the country, obviously, with southern rust and everything, but here locally in our little bubble, there's there's a lot of corn. There's a lot of corn out here.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, absolutely. All right, my friend, before we end here, explain so well how in that interview yesterday, are there going to be Trump bucks or not, and how much?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, that's uh that's a great question. And uh, we talked a lot about that with uh Stephen Vaden, and he basically saying, you know, they have to take into account uh current market conditions. And so Don had a chance to talk with him earlier in the summer, and that was at uh Minnesota Farm Fest, and and Stephen Vaden kind of made reference to that saying, you know, back when I talked to you earlier, the soybean price was uh much different than it is right now. So hitting those 15-month highs in the soybean prices, they have to take that into account. And so, anyway, that being said, the aid payment may not be as much as what originally was possibly promised or talked about. So they're looking at it from the price of commodities changing a little bit. That may change how much aid comes out, of course. That that's great that the prices have come up, but the inputs haven't gone down. So, really, that that's something to be considered. And he did say that they all also are considering that. So I guess we'll wait and see what really happens. But he's he's you know, it does sound very promising that something will be coming. There will be something coming. Sounds good.
SPEAKER_00:All right, Jamie Dickerman, Red River Farm Network coming to us from beautiful Grand Forks, North Dakota. Time of Grossafi, Eggbo Media, Eggbo Trading. I'm in Valparaiso, Indiana today. We have a big bad USDA report tomorrow. We got a lot of news. The government is back open. They finally got it done. I don't know what they got done while they were closed. Like one of those songs of what what were we fighting for? What are we fighting over? Who knows? I gotta tell you, I didn't mind the government being shut down. I actually enjoyed it, but it it but it's nice to see it open. Phones are ringing. I'm gonna get this bundled up and I'm gonna stream it out on X and everywhere else. Folks, if you're watching this, uh typically the video of the Red River Farm Network is locked down because it's for premium subscribers. But we had the beautiful young face of Jamie Dickerman on today, and we didn't want to hold him back. But if you want to subscribe to premium,$25 a month,$250 a year, www.agbull.com. Mr. Jamie, you finish it up. How do people get a hold of you? What are you and then what are you optimistic about in agriculture, my friend?
SPEAKER_01:I am check out our website, by the way, rrfn com. We're there. Uh you can uh find all our socials and everything right there at that website. That's the best place to go find me. But I I'm excited about the fact that you know the government's back open, things are gonna move, we're gonna see a deal, we're gonna see some things going on with China. I feel like things are gonna pick up, and I think there's a little bit of optimism, at least with the guys that I talk to on a regular basis. They feel like, you know what, uh the this this this two shall pass, we'll turn it around, things will get better, and just uh just hang on. And so I think that's how I feel. I feel the same way. Just just hang on, things will turn, we'll see a turn, and uh it's coming sooner than later, hopefully. Sounds good, Jamie Dickerman. Till next time.
SPEAKER_00:See ya, my friend. Thank you.
