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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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AG Bull
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Memorial Day 2026
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We run through a fast, heavy week across grains, livestock, and macro policy, then zoom in on why cattle volatility and sticky food inflation are getting political. We connect fertilizer strategy, trade fights, court risk, and shipping rules to what you pay at the store and what you hedge on the board.
• weekly moves across corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, cattle, feeders, and hogs
• demand still solid, but early signs of trade-down buying in meat
• cattle on feed takeaways, including heavy placements and lower marketings
• feeder cattle limit-style action and why exits matter
• USDA fertilizer strategy and the “national security” framing
• Moroccan phosphate countervailing duties and the cost to farmers
• China ag trade uncertainty and why USDA flash sales are the real signal
• Cargill labor dispute risk and how it could tighten beef supplies
• Supreme Court pesticide labeling case and implications for glyphosate
• beef TRQ import debate and the split between inflation and rancher policy
• Senate farm bill timeline pressures, including SNAP cost sharing and E15 gaps
• USDA food inflation forecast with beef projected sharply higher
• Fed leadership change talk and what it could mean for rates and volatility
• Jones Act waiver impacts on diesel shipping, freight, and fertilizer flows
• crude oil and local gas price check heading into the holiday
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Welcome Sponsors And What’s Ahead
SPEAKER_00Welcome back, everybody. Tom Gersafi, AgBO Media, AgBO Trading. You're listening to the AgBo podcast, but really you're here to hear what Mr. Weeksmeyer said. Now he's been like that crazy mim, that little squirrel that's typing a million miles an hour. We almost ran out of pages. But before we start the show, we want to thank you, people, new subscribers. Every week our listener views are going up on Spotify and Apple. More people are subscribing on YouTube. Do me a favor, if you could, please, don't just go to YouTube, subscribe to YouTube. When we release these videos, and trust me, folks, we have a whole bunch more videos that are coming out in the future. I wish I could tell you, I just can't because it's a secret. But with that, we have so much exciting stuff. First of all, I want to thank one of our sponsors here, trade the news. How do we at Agbo Media get all our news? Trade the news. Of course, people are out there on X and everything else, but imagine having a service that does it all for you. Trade the news, an audio squawk service that comes on a page and it's beeping and dinging and it's vocal and it's wonderful. The good folks who trade the news, go to the trade the news people and tell them the Agbo Boys sent you. With that, you're not here to see me, you're here to see this handsome guy. We're gonna give him a proper 30 second 30-second introduction, and then we got a show back there. He's giggling, Jim. Now's your time to cough and get it all out, brother. Let's go. Well, the price of beef is on sale, and you're gonna break it all down for us. We don't have much time to waste because we had an active, active week in
Weekly Market Scorecard And Demand
SPEAKER_00the markets. Take it from the top, my friend.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we did. I mean, look at the far right hand column because that's the change for the week. Corn had a good week despite some negative news from misreporting on the so-called uh China agreement up a little over seven cents. Look at soybeans, up almost 20 cents. Meal was a downer. Soybean oil was okay. Wheat showing some signals, it's a toppy. Look at cotton, had a bad week, but we've had quite a run-up, but now it's under 80 cents, but it was down 319 points for the week. Cattle, it's really a today market thing that we're going to you know get into, but showing signs of an exhaustion top. But uh, I'll let the market tell us that. But at least that's the signal.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, feeders, bad day, hogs just chugging along. And with that, Jim, demand's actually really good for all these products. There's not a problem with demand or anything, but at some point, like I was telling a friend today, six years ago today, feeder cattle were almost a dollar, they almost hit four. It's okay to trade 350. Not if you're long from higher prices, you probably don't think that's funny, but this is normal for a market to have a correction.
SPEAKER_01Speaking of uh Walmart, Tommy, Walmart in their earnings call this week had a very insightful comment because they they track what people buy, and they've noticed that uh the more well-to-do clients are still buying up, but they're they're beginning to see trading different types of products, cheaper products, lower cuts for for meat, etc. So to me, that tells me the accumulation of higher cost for gasoline and other products may be starting to hit the demand, but we're gonna see if the data shows that in the coming months.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so we had cattle on feed. Uh folks and people I talked to said it was slightly bearish. Now, if you're like, wow, that was a really bearish number. Before you get too far ahead of your
Cattle On Feed And Feeder Limit Moves
SPEAKER_00skis here, look what the feeder market did today, folks. It uh traded limit down on Thursday. We had expanded limits today, almost hit it. I thank God we didn't. Feeders down $11 at one time, close just down six. Jim, I'll take that as a victory. I'll tell you why. If you were caught long feeders, you had a chance to get out, correct? If you had a position that is true, and you I don't like when people can't get out, Jim. Thoughts?
SPEAKER_01Oh, yeah. I remember the grain embarkle days where for four days you couldn't get out of a marketplace. So yeah, that that's etched in in my in my memory on that.
SPEAKER_00You mentioned that when I visit with farmers, they still curse it was President Carter. And how did they not think that one through? I just educate me on a little history.
SPEAKER_01They didn't listen to Vice President Mondale, who told them it wouldn't work, because what the Soviet Union at the time did is they liquidated their cattle and dairy herds and they had all the meat that they wanted. So he listened to the CIA, which it has intelligence in their name, but they didn't have the intelligence. And he should have listened to an Aggie, you know, vice president, but they didn't, as my German grandmother used to tell us all the time. If you don't think, you feel, and they felt it.
SPEAKER_00Uh well, if that upsets anyone, what you just said, there all those people are dead now, so no need to worry. Let's move to fertilizer.
SPEAKER_01Oh, wait a minute. Let's let's take on cattle on feed a little bit more.
SPEAKER_00Let's go back.
SPEAKER_01Yes, yeah. That showed feedlot inventories uh up two percent from a year ago. Now that signals feedlots continue to hold historically large numbers of cattle, despite types, herd supplies overall. April placements was the word going into the report, and definitely they were spot on analyst. It to 6% above last year, much of the increase concentrated in heavy, heavier weight cattle. And that's what Mike Sands with you have has been signaling for a while now. Marketing fell sharply. That suggests to me that packers process fewer cattle amid tighter supplies and ongoing margin pressures in the beef sector. Nebraska remained the largest cattle on feed state, followed by Texas and Kansas. Bottom line, feedlots remain relatively full because cattle are being held longer at heavier weights, even as the cattle herd remains historically tight. Now, the combination continues to support elevated live cattle and beef prices despite what we saw this week, while contributing to concerns about long-term beef supply availability and consumer price inflation. And we're going to get into that later on with an updated USGA food price report today, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00And real quick shout out to us, well, really, Mr. Mike Sands. You've worked with Mike Sands for over 40 years. I put Mike Sands information, folks, on the ticker. Mike Sands is an ag economist PhD. He runs MBS Research. He had he has partnered with us at uh Nesvik Trading. And every day we put out a five-minute snippet for premium subscribers before the bell with Mike Sands, our very own Jed records that gets it out within minutes of that. If that's something that interests you, especially on this cattle side, you're going to need to move over to the premium side, www.agbull.com, $25 a month, $250 annually. And you know what, Jim? We could charge $25 a month just for that cattle piece, but they get a whole lot more than that. That's just one snippet of what they get.
SPEAKER_01But Mike Yeah, he's a he's almost like the old days where you had a trader, uh, an analyst on the floor, you know, you know, sensing the mood of a marketplace. That's how good Mike is.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, very much. That's a very uh very good description. And and besides that, he's a wonderful person and he will take a phone call. So again, if you're interested in that, subscribe to premium or Mike Sands numbers there. But he is he it's a privilege to work with him. My not that I could say I completely understand cattle, because if anyone says they understand cattle, I think they're lying to you. But with that, Mike Sands is a gem and uh fun to work with. Let's jump right into fertilizer, sir.
SPEAKER_01We had some we had another press conference by Secretary Rollins, but she had a a number of
New USDA Fertilizer Strategy Takes Shape
SPEAKER_01other people uh uh with her. At least I was there, Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council. I mean, she had the energy secretary, right? But the bottom line, Tommy, is they they put some meat on the bone finally. Despite, I don't think it was was was adequately reported in the major in the mainstream ag press. She unveiled a fertilizer strategy to lower fertilizer costs. They can't do much short term, expand domestic production out three to five years, it's gonna take, and treat supply as both an economic and national security issue. Now, I want to stress that. This is the first time agriculture has heard any administration say fertilizer is a national security issue. If that's not important, I don't know what is. What are they gonna do? Faster permitting at the federal, uh, local, and state level, affordable energy, transportation, flexibility, supply chain. They're talking about tax incentives, they're talking about grants, they're talking about loan guarantees. She mentioned a Louisiana Blue Point Ammonia project, which when it's completed in 2029, it's a multi-billion dollar facility. It'll be the largest in the world. Now, it's in Louisiana, they'll export a lot, I but but still that's a major development. They also announced projects potentially adding more than 2 billion tons of domestic capacity. Now, Secretary Wright, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said natural gas is fertilizer. So he tied the affordable gas directly to nitrogen, fertilizer cost, and a broader U.S. energy policy. Now, they didn't talk much about removing the duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, but we're going to have a separate item on that coming up. They did mention market concentration, that the Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission, is reviewing uh fertilizer pricing and competition. They say there'll be more on that later. Near-term bottom line: most projects are years away. No one expected immediate uh relief. We'll have some on the surface. Longer term, as I keep saying, fertilizer is now like semiconductors. It's vital now with long-term success dependent on private investment, energy markets, and geopolitical stability. We now have a uh a long-term plan to get out of this mess in the next three to five years. Yeah, it's gonna take a while. Get over it. At least we have a strategy, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, we're moving forward. And they address that issue. Now, it's not by accident, it's down in Louisiana. Tell folks in about that. You had some insight that today.
SPEAKER_01They'll export it. Yeah, yeah, they'll act, they'll export it. Uh and so it's money generating. Uh not all of it, but uh, there's a reason it's in Louisiana, and that's why it's an export facility ready to pump out.
SPEAKER_00Here comes slide number five, Jim. And this kind of ties into it very well. Morocco C V D. Help me again.
SPEAKER_01Countervailing duty, countervailing duties. That's when that's when you
Moroccan Phosphate Duties And Farm Costs
SPEAKER_01charge a unfair unfair prices, dumping or whatever on a country, and that's what happened.
SPEAKER_00Like Japan used to do with us with steel?
SPEAKER_01Yes. Uh-huh. Okay. Now it's the little history here. This began it. We've had these countervailing duties on tariffs, if you will, since 2021 because the because Mosaic and its supporters said, hey, they crowd filed and they said these are unfair subsidies. So that's why they put those tariffs on. But farm groups now are pushing the White House to remove those phosphate duties because they're citing almost a 30% rise in DAP prices since 2021. And they estimated Texas AM study almost $7 billion in additional farmer cost. Now, here's a little trip through history. Moroccan imports fell from around 50% of U.S. phosphate imports when there weren't any CVDs to just under 1%. So there's there's your primary reason why the uh you know fertilizer prices in this area have gone up. So where's the solution? You'll recall we talked at least a month ago, probably longer. President uh Trump said that he was looking into his emergency executive authority to do away with these CVDs. He hasn't announced it yet. What's happening here? Well, I did a story, it's out on AgBolMedia.com. There's more uh conflict within the Trump administration on this uh issue, and it's not as easy as they thought. Lawmakers, uh Roger Marshall, Republican from Kansas, Kansas has some legislation in to remove the duties, but as we see anything with Congress, uh don't hold your breath. So and the the Middle East tensions in the Strait of Harmuz is is adding more supply concerns, and Rollins acknowledged that. Rollins also was skeptical that if you remove the Moroccan CVDs, that it would sharply lower prices. So that's that's a little change on on her part. The trade hawks in the Trump administration fear that suspending those duties would undermine their overall Trump trade enforcement policy. And U.S. trade rep Jamison Greer reportedly recused himself for a decision on this because he had prior legal work in this area. Bottom line, there's a conflict between protecting domestic manufacturers, mosaic, for example, and lowering farm input cost. So that's what they're still going through on this one. I think it may take Congress to have to come in if they can. Don't hold your breath.
SPEAKER_00Lot of moving parts, a lot of moving parts. That was number five Morocco CVDs. We went over that. How about uh China Ag Trade Update? What a change of events that Sunday night open. Wowie, wow, Jim. Yeah, we opened like it was supposed to rain on 4th
China Trade Deal Signals And What To Watch
SPEAKER_00of July and didn't. 15 hiring corn, 25 hiring beans. We held some of those levels for the week. What's the final deal with the China in trade?
SPEAKER_01Well, let's go from Friday, which you said talk about bad news bears, to Monday. That was as a result of the many, if not most, in the ag sector being very negative on what we called the deliverables. But what they didn't understand is it takes time to get some of the details out. And and it's still going to take time because we some we we saw some of the same high anxiety about midweek when when when news services quote traders, analysts saying, you know, that I don't they don't think China's going, uh China hasn't announced the tonnage levels, they won't anyway, or they may not buy it. Those same people said the same thing last October, if you remember, when China committed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of February. Well, they did. And so we're we're into this warp area here. Here's my bottom line: the absence of Chinese confirmation of some of the details does not necessarily mean the absence of eventual Chinese buying. So, what are we going to look for? In the next few weeks, traders are gonna look for daily USDA flashes on daily sales, and if it's China, then your credibility of them coming to buy is going to go way up. The second one former top ag trade negotiator under Trump 1.0, Greg Dowd, the first administration, said this week that he thinks this is very similar to the phase one agreement. I agree in some ways, but not in this major one. The $17 billion of additional value of Chinese purchases of U.S. farm products above and beyond the 25 million metric tons of soybean purchases from the U.S. the next three calendar years, with ProRata for this year because we're well into it. It it leaves China with flexibility on what to purchase. The phase one agreement under the first administration has specific tonnages, Tommy. So I think this is going to keep the market really guessing because China's going to have the market opportunity to pick and choose what they want to buy. This China story is going to be with us for months, but the negativity in the grain press is widespread, and they have to have solid proof in order to prove them wrong. And I think that they'll get the proof, but it's going to take a while.
SPEAKER_00I gotcha. And uh also our friend Stephen Vaden in our interview, your interview with Stephen Vaden said that I can't believe the press doesn't believe us. They're going to be shocked. And traders, he pretty much said traders are making a huge mistake, not thinking China's going to do this.
SPEAKER_01Yes, and Jamison Greer said that. President Trump said that going in that U.S. farmers are going to be very happy. Well, they they were happy the Monday once they got at least solid news. But again, I want to emphasize Chinese officials are not going to detail what the U.S. people do because they got to buy the stuff. You know, they don't want to signal too much. I mean, to me, that's just like a poker player.
SPEAKER_00Like a good poker player.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. Uh when I play with my family, they know when I have a good hand because I just I can't confuse much.
SPEAKER_00You bring your own chips, Jim.
SPEAKER_01No, I give a lot of chips in, but I I figure we always count Eats as winnings. So I eat a lot when I'm at the when I'm at my my nephew's house.
SPEAKER_00Free drinks at the family uh gambling thing, just like the casino. Yeah, eats is winnings. Yeah, absolutely. All right, number seven, strike at Dodge City KC, or will Fort Morgan eventually close? Lots of stuff. The name Cargill is popping up a lot, and uh
Cargill Labor Tensions And Beef Supply Risk
SPEAKER_00they must be watching the show because they actually called us and said, Hey, we see you're reporting on this. Have we said anything that's not true?
SPEAKER_01Well, I emailed them. Well, they I want to bounce ideas off of them, and we'll see if they respond. I've given them some more questions, but Cargill officially locked out around 1700 Teamsters representative workers, uh, Fort Morgan. Local seven reportedly rejected the company's latest offer. 90% they rejected it, Tommy. The key dispute areas, wages, health care costs, uh, contract length, and working conditions. The plants may rely on weekend kills to manage supply chain disruptions. That's what they've been doing or segmenting to other other facilities. That's what's what's been happening ever since the initial walkout, if you will, wildcat walkout. Now, rumors uh began what yesterday? They spread about a possible labor issues at other facilities, reportedly including Dodge City. I want to emphasize this is rumor plus situation. Yeah, we have not been able to confirm that. But the concern is that broader labor tensions could uh widen regional beef supply disruptions. Now, Dodge City strike talk, and that's what it is, it's talk, is still considered mostly speculation. No official strike confirmation from the major news services, and that's what I would go on for this one. Analysts warn wider labor disruptions could trigger stronger market reaction. So if this creeps, if this has legs, as we say, it'll have more market significance. Stay tuned if it does.
SPEAKER_00Okay, interesting. And uh just uh full disclosure uh friends of ours at Nesvik were actually in Dodge City yesterday, drove by both plants in Dodge City, said the parking lots were full, one shift was ending, another shift was going in. There looked nothing of the sorts of people not doing business as usual.
SPEAKER_01Full disclosure tell them they should have called me, but that's that's good insight. I like that. You see there?
SPEAKER_00Well, I how much can one man absorb like you do? I mean, you gotta sleep. Let's move on to number eight Supreme Court, and I believe we have a picture of uh the Supreme Court.
SPEAKER_01The Supreme Court, we have a big ag related
Supreme Court Roundup Labeling Stakes
SPEAKER_01issue coming up here. Now, whether or not it'll be May 28th is still up in the air, but it could be as soon as May the 28th. That they're gonna decide pesticide labeling ruling, and it centers on whether the federal pesticide law overrides state cancer warning lawsuits. And if you recall, Monsanto and Bayer are seeking liability protection over round Roundup glyphosate claims. Uh, farm groups are warning uh continued lawsuits are going to threaten that crop protection tool. Bayer says ongoing litigation, if it keeps up, could impact the future sales of glyphosate glyphosate. They could pull it off. Court opinions frequently happen in late May and June, and that's what's fueling speculation that we could have an announcement as. Early as May the 28th. There's been no official indication on exact release dates, but the decision, Tommy, could reshape EPA authority and federal preemption standards. This is big. It may also determine the future scope of pesticide failure to warn lawsuits. So this case is seen as one of the term's most significant agriculture and business decisions. So we're going to monitor it next week and we'll report. We'll report either way on May the 28th whether it's it's it's a ruling or not.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Boy, we're just going through the show a lot faster than I thought, Jim, which isn't a problem. Um folks, if you're driving or whatever, do us a favor, tell a friend about this show. And boy, there's some good nuggets in here. I have some things I've been thinking about when you've been talking, and I'm going to throw a couple other things because you didn't have it in your notes, which is fine. I'm not going to tell you yet, but you're going to be, I've been paying attention. There's been all types of headlines today, and I've been taking notes while you're talking. We're going to do a little speed round. Sure. We never stump you though. We always try. Matter of fact, if you stick around to the end of the show, Jim's got a little nugget. Every week he teaches us something, sometimes new words, sometimes some history, but we'll get to that here in a bit. All right, here we go. More acronyms.
SPEAKER_01Do tell beef TRQs, tariff rate quotas. Okay. Again, much
Beef Import Quotas Policy Fight
SPEAKER_01like the Moroccan uh CVDs, countervailing duties, there's some internal Trump administration differences there. We had a we had a special report on on Agbell Media.com earlier this week, but the conflict is over easing beef quotas, if you will, TRQs, to address high consumer beef prices. You'll recall, was it last week when word first broke that hey, they're gonna announce this? And then RCAF and some other cattle groups and farm state lawmakers from cattle states called the White House and Secretary Rollins saying, What in the Sam H are you doing? And they pulled back the decision for further review, as they say.
SPEAKER_00That looks slappy, Jim, doesn't it?
SPEAKER_01When they do that, it tells me they didn't vet it out. And that's that's a recurrent problem now with this White House in this. I think they keep these decisions too close to the vest. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett pushed for more imports as an inflation relief strategy. Yeah, he put on his economic hat, where it tells me he doesn't understand agriculture. But now USDA reportedly said additional imports would have only minimal impact on retail beef prices. So uh once I think Rollins got that analysis, I don't think she had it early on because they probably didn't ask USDA, which is a fault if that's the case, she raised some problems with Trump on this one. So if you don't think Rollins uh doesn't have clout, she does. Now, imported beef mainly supplies lean trim for hamburger, not premium stake cuts. So it wouldn't read uh impact retail prices all that much. Now the ranching allies, RCAF, MCBA, worried that expanded imports undercut support for U.S. cattle producers. The debate exposed to me broader divide between inflation-focused advisors and ag focused advisors. So you have to separate the tensions, including over the closure of Mexican cattle imports, via the new world screw worm concerns. You have similar issues here, Tommy. This is why uh you know the the concern from an economic impact versus a political impact, especially as you as you had as you head into November 3rd midterm elections. The restrictions uh and for and for Mexico could shift cattle feeding and processing investment toward Mexico. That's what's happening. We're we're seeing more products, uh, Mexican beef products coming into the United States. The issues here are they want lower in food inflation, but at the same time, they want rancher profitability, they want biosecurity, and they want a long-term supply chain. So you can see the different conflicts here. And so there's tension across the beef trade, biofuels trade, fertilizer cost, and trade policy. This is why policy is so interesting to me. It's not a black and white issue. There's gray areas all over the place, and we just described some.
SPEAKER_00Moving to number 10, Senate Farm Bill.
SPEAKER_01Bozeman, Senate Ag Committee Chairman, Republican from Arkansas, said this week, as
Farm Bill Math SNAP Pressure And E15
SPEAKER_01he said other weeks, that he wants to drop a bill, as we call it, the Senate version of the farm bill, which will be different than the House, uh, sometime in June. He also wants a markup uh in June. His bill is eventually gonna have to be more bipartisan than the partisan tilted house farm bill. In order to get this through the Senate, because you need 60 votes to to stop uh to invoke cloture, to stop a filibuster, he's gonna have to work with ranking chairwoman, uh Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat from Minnesota. And she's amenable to work with, but it's regarding food stamps, stamp. It's the cost sharing designed to increase state accountability that's gonna kick in, I think, in 2027. Even some Republican senators are worried that that cost sharing could financially strain their state. So I I see a potential compromise here, Tommy, where where the Republicans in the Senate could give a little to the Democrats, but they can't go too far because the House, especially, uh, is squeezy tight margins in the House. They don't want many changes, if any, to the food stamp program. So you can see the dilemma here. So the concerns are growing over political backlash on this cost sharing and SNAP and state budget impacts. This thing could cost. So the debate's gonna complicate the Senate negotiate negotiations on the farm bill and their budget priorities. It's not gonna have also the Senate bill will not have year-round E15. The reason it wasn't in the House Farm Bill because of issues amongst the different members. The same thing is true in the in the Senate. How are we gonna get a farm bill passed? By having a compromise with the Democrats in the Senate, and we'll see if the House uh accepts it in a House Senate conference later on this year, Tommy. If not, they'll just extend the 2018 farm bill again.
SPEAKER_00Very good. All right, moving to 11. This one's serious because it's affecting everyone, regardless of your political affiliation, fuel and food is it's gonna be top of subject
USDA Food Inflation Forecast And Beef Surge
SPEAKER_00here as we come into the holiday, Jim.
SPEAKER_01Yes, and it came out today. These are fresh numbers. Uh and administration is not gonna like it. USDA raised the 2026 food inflation forecast to 3.4 percent from 2.9 percent. Grocery prices are now expected to rise 3.2 percent. That's at the grocery store. That's above the 20-year average of 2.6 percent. And that's what Hassett and others in the administration look at that 20-year average. So this is the warning side again. Sticky food inflation. Restaurant prices are forecast to increase 3.5% this calendar year. 2026 grocery inflation outlook is the highest since USDA began forecast in July 2025, on the 2026. Beef prices are projected to surge 12.1 percent this year. That's on top of the similar increase that we saw in 2014, and it would be the largest since 1979. You think the beef prices haven't got the White House attention? This is why. Tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand are driving beef prices higher. We all know that. Now they know. Retail beef prices in April were up almost 15% from a year earlier. Now we're starting to get into that crunch area on demand, I think. Nine of 15 grocery categories are expected to rise faster than historical averages. Fresh fruits, vegetables, seafood, sugar, and beverages are among the strongest gainers. Egg prices is a success story. They're forecast to fall almost 30% after the bird flu-driven spike last calendar year. And this is where Trump likes to quote like to likes to quote in his speeches, Tommy. He thinks getting beef prices down is just as easy as getting egg prices down, and he just doesn't under still doesn't understand that it takes two to three years to get the cattle herd going again. USDA says fewer avian flu outbreaks are is are boosting egg production recovery, and gross respending still accounts for about 60 percent a little over 60 percent of total food spending. I want to repeat that. This is why food expenditures is so important as an election year issue. Gross respending accounts for a little over 60 percent of total food spending, higher fuel costs is gonna add further pressure to food inflation. So this issue is not solved, it's gonna remain uh for the remainder of this calendar year. That's the bottom line on that.
SPEAKER_00Regardless of where you shop, Jim, whether you're going to Aldi, which we were at, I just saw my credit card ding a few minutes ago during the show. My wife's at Costco, she she was well behaved, but we shop at uh most of these stores, and there's just no way around right now, Jim. There's just no way. I mean, you can only cut so much, right? Yeah, and how many eggs does someone really eat? I mean, it's really a silly thing. A dozen eggs is three bucks, where there are three or four or five. It's not like a family's consuming ten dozens a week. I mean, you're talking about to a family by getting eggs down a couple dollars a week. I mean, it's nothing compared to the price of and you know, oftentimes, Jim, we talk about steak, but last night we went to our local grocery store and we bought a ton of chicken. I actually have the trigger on right now. I'm gonna smoke a bunch of chicken here as soon as we get done with the show. I'll send you a piece, Jim, but I wouldn't eat it. It might not, it might not be fresh when you get it. You know what? You you you'll be okay, you eat it. But with that, you can spend a lot of money on chicken, and for some reason, there's nothing on sale. I mean, in unless you're gonna eat pork and ramen noodles every day, like in Asian country. Uh there's no way around this, correct?
SPEAKER_01But out here, you can get some chicken legs pretty cheap at some times when they go on sale. And then I have that with pasta, angel hair pasta. Had it had it uh one day this week, and good uh good sauce and things like that.
SPEAKER_00Next week we might have recipes on the show. Cooking with Jim.
SPEAKER_01Bottom line, yes, this fuel, this food thing is not going away, and that'll add further pressure to the rumors in the in the trq. You can see how we're gonna connect dots here. Oh, yeah, we're truths and beef. You you can see why some officials like Kevin Hassett, Peter Navarro, the trade specialist for for Trump, who's a little scary to me, and and other people are are telling Trump to do to lighten up on those TRQs, but you can see the political angle that we talked about, and this is not gonna go away. In fact, it's increasing, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and I just want to ask you a silly question. Uh, one year from now, we'll be uh no, this November's midterm elections, correct?
SPEAKER_01November 3rd.
SPEAKER_00Right. It's gonna be a totally different political landscape after that. Agreed?
SPEAKER_01We have to see the results. It's too we got a little over five months before the election. Trump hasn't really focused on the midterms all that much yet. It's something called Iran. But once he does, I think uh the at least what the election year watchers are going to look to see if his approval numbers increase because they're awful right now. They're 37 to 39 percent. So that would signal that signaling to election year watchers that the odds are over 50 percent that the Republicans will lose control of the House. And the Senate, most people that I've interviewed in the election uh watchers that I respect over the years, several, not just one, still say it'll be tight, but they see the Republicans retaining control of the Senate. Very important to control the Senate because Supreme Court, if you had a retirement or a death in the Supreme Court, they have to go through the Senate, Tommy. Bottom line on the lecture, it's still too early. I want to see right around the fourth of July, that's where you take a gut check.
SPEAKER_00Okay.
SPEAKER_01Uh on and and you know, we'll in fact we'll have David Wasserman on on the uh on the podcast.
SPEAKER_00Can we can we talk about Fourth of July a little bit? Sure. Fourth of July, America's gonna be 250 years old, and I love to give away flags, and I have a whole case of flags. So if you're watching the Ag Bull podcast, we will uh if you get a hold of us, if you go to the website and say, I'd love a brand new American flag, no limit. Normally I say one, two. Let's see who the heck is watching the show. If you'd like American flag and you love America, we're gonna be 250 years old. That's that's old. That's more than Jim and I combined, and that that's a beautiful thing. Now, I hate to put you under pressure, but I hope they're made in America, China. I think they are. I think that I have one right behind me.
SPEAKER_01Look at the tag.
SPEAKER_00Okay, I'll put I'll go full screen on you, but we'll do that. And then uh there was something else I want to do too. We're getting towards the end of the show, and we're at 11. We did that. Let's do 12, and then I'm gonna do a little rapid fire with you with some questions. Number 12, FOMC Minutes and Walsh and New Head Fed. Now, Walsh was just signed. Kevin Warsh, just uh today.
SPEAKER_01He had a press
Fed Leadership Shift And The “Fed Put”
SPEAKER_01conference at the White House, first time since Alan Greenspan was fed uh coming into the Fed that they had a uh signing in, uh honoring at the at the White House. Walsh, Kevin Walsh, he's not an economist. I think that's a plus to me, but he's seen as skeptical of aggressive Fed bond buying program, quantitative easing, that's the QE. Investors are watching whether he pushes faster Fed balance sheet reduction. Now, why am I focusing on this? The Fed balance sheet still holds trillions of dollars in treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. That's MBS's. The more aggressive quantitative tightening QT could pressure long-term interest rates higher. So we're gonna see. Watch, watch the Fed now under Walsh. I think will be different than Jerome J. Powell. If I'm right, higher treasury yields could raise the borrowing cost for consumers and businesses, and markets are concerned that reduced Fed liquidity support could increase volatility. And Walsh has already said prolonged quantitative easing in the past, distorted asset prices, and encouraged excess risk taking. So the potential for a smaller Federal Reserve role in supporting financial markets during crises could be one of these impacts. So I I don't want to belabor this, but I'm telling you, watch this because it's it's it's what the financial market people are telling me. Private investors now are gonna have to it would absorb more of the treasury supply if the Fed reduces their holdings faster. And the markets are gonna have to assess whether Walsh would reshape the Fed's post-2008 policy framework. What's the key focus now? Less reliance on emergency stimulus by the Fed and large-scale asset purchases. So wow, if that's the case, that's a fundamental change in Fed policy direction. Now he's only one. There's other people on there that he's gonna have to convince, but he is a very smart individual. And he said at the press conference at the White House today, and even Trump said it, he wants the Fed to be truly independent. I about fell over when I heard him say that. But let's hope that's the case. We need an independent Fed.
SPEAKER_00And I think, correct me if I'm wrong, what you're talking about, Jim, is that professional traders like myself, but high-level Wall Street traders, there's a something talked about and something not known about. There's a there's a Fed put under the market. And when the Fed signals, you know what, you sold off 20% stock market, we got your back, we're gonna do this, this, and this. You're saying, if I'm hearing you right, they might be pulling the Fed put out from the market, which could create more volatility in the stock market. Is that right, Jim?
SPEAKER_01That's what I'm saying. That's what the smart people are telling me. We're gonna see if they're right.
SPEAKER_00Okay, we're getting to the educational part. Slide 13. I I'll if you don't understand everything going on, that's okay. Because before the show, I see Jim educate
Jones Act Waiver Fuel Freight And Fertilizer
SPEAKER_00me about the Jones Act. And he said, Son, sit down. I'm gonna give you a lesson. The professor's in the house.
SPEAKER_01And this is why our graphic, for those who are looking at the graphics, says the Jones Act 1920. It's a U.S. maritime law passed in 1920 that requires all goods shipped between U.S. ports to be transported on vessels that are built, owned, flagged, and largely crewed by Americans. That's to support our ship building industry. The supporters of the Jones Act say the law protects national security. There's that phrase again. It preserves U.S. shipbuilding capacity and supports domestic maritime jobs. Now, we had a waiver of this. Critics argue it raises transportation cost and limits shipping flexibility because U.S. compliant vessels are far more expensive than they are and less available than foreign ships. The law frequently becomes a major policy issue during emergencies, fuel shortages, or supply chain disruptions. That's the time that we're at. That's the background. Now, I want to give a shout out to a NASVIC analyst. He's very good. One of the smartest younger people I've seen in my 50 years, Tommy. Don't don't tell him.
SPEAKER_00Oh, I'm gonna send him this clip. He's gonna think you start drinking before the show.
SPEAKER_01Zachary Davis. I mean, I am each time I read some of his analysis, I'm even more impressed. He did a Jones Act waiver analysis this morning in the publication you all call morning comments. He said the waiver is becoming a major policy and market experiment. The waiver is now extended through August the 16th loading deadline. It's the longest and broadest suspension of the Jones Act since 1950. Yeah, I was I was here. He wasn't. Okay. Foreign flag vessels are allowed to compete in U.S. domestic shipping. We just explained that. Almost 1.6 million barrels of diesel and petroleum was moved in the Gulf Coast to the West Coast, from the Gulf to the West. So it really helped California. Okay. The waiver shipments are already four times all of 2025 domestic waterborne volumes. The lower shipping costs are going to help reduce fuel and freight inflation. So this is why they did it, Tommy. The manufacturing rebound and higher diesel prices are boosting trucking demand. I had an item on in my in my updates just about that topic. Puerto Rico reserved the received the first ever bulk propane shipment under the waiver. Otherwise, they couldn't afford it. Yeah, they couldn't afford it. The agriculture sector is benefiting from imported fertilizer and ammonia shipments. It kind of tempers the cost, but now we got to get we have to free up the you know straight up our moose. Critics argue that the Jones Act waiver raises the shipping cost and limits flexibility. The Maritime Administration voyage data is now going to be closely watched for long-term policy impacts. And that's all in his excellent analysis and more. So I wanted to give a shout out. But this is having some impact. Remember when when uh the uh the Trump administration initially indicated there there would be a waiver of the Jones Act, and some people said, well, it won't it won't matter all that much. I think it's having more impact, especially regionally, than people thought.
SPEAKER_00Okay, very interesting. Before we get to the end of the show, and we're getting close. I think I think that was it. This last slide, you you you got the notes in, right? Yeah. Okay, that's the end of that, good sir. But I have some questions before I get to questions. I want to uh again uh promote. Of course, you're watching uh Weissmeyer's Perspectives, an egg bull
Rapid Fire Oil Gas Prices And Memorial Day
SPEAKER_00podcast presentation. Uh Jim's an absolute gift and pleasure to work with. Of course, we'd love to see you on the premium side, $25 a month, $250 annually. You would get that uh report he's talking about with Zachary and of course uh Mr. Mike Sands and so much more. Uh with that, we have a sponsor, Trade the News. Trade News is an audio podcast, they are squawking news left and right. You hear it vocally, you see it physically, you get emails. It's affordable. Tell them the Agble Boy sent you to trade the news, get a free trial over there, check that out. Before we end the show with a I'm gonna do rapid fire and then uh we gotta talk about Memorial Day. My rapid fire questions for you. I said we I wrote on piece of paper you didn't talk much about E15, but you then did, so we can cross that off. Yeah, we had this tidbit come out.
SPEAKER_01It what's deal with this intelligence director. You know, she was rumored to be leaving a few weeks, if not a month ago. Now, she said that, and I feel for her husband has a bad uh health uh issue, so okay, she'll be resigning to help take care of the 30th.
SPEAKER_00So it's not a resignation as of today, no, but that is now the fourth person to leave the Trump administration, they were all female.
SPEAKER_01Yes, I don't know if that has anything to do with anything, but I saw a tweet and but she really was not part of now, she was a former Democrat, and Trump liked her because she Trump used to be a Democrat when he was. So was Reagan, so was Reagan. Is that right? Yeah, Reagan used to be a Democrat, yeah. The she was out of the loop in a number of key issues because I think she fought uh some of the entrants uh in in Trump's like you know, Venezuela. I think she was on vacation during the Venezuela you know situation, yeah. And she wasn't too enamored with the Iran uh war either. So I'm not saying that's why she's gone, but she was uh kind of being pushed to the side here where he was counting on other people. That's my bottom line. But I feel for her rather uh relative to her husband's health problems, and that's always always heartfelt.
SPEAKER_00Very good. As we end the show, I want to talk about crude oil real quick. Looking down at my phone, crude oil, we're trading the July contract, folks. It's trading 9634. That is trending down. Commodity markets in general have really had uh explosive moves up if you look at the Bloomberg commodity index. But I will say we do another show, carry our tech technical analysis. Markets are starting to roll over. Jim mentioned cotton earlier in the show. Wheat's had a nice rally, but way off the highs. Corn's having a hard time maintaining the five dollar mark, not only in DS 26, but DES 27. Start looking at that NOVE 27, DES 27, soybean corn relationship. Uh, obviously, we know what happened with cattle. And with that, I ask viewers and listeners if you're out there, drop a comment. What did you pay for gas locally when you traveled this weekend? We're about 385 in Valparaiso, Indiana, and diesel's down to 575. That is a large tax on all businesses, all consumers. Every single thing in my house showed up by a truck. It didn't just walk its way into the house. And with that, let's give honor, Jim, and Memorial Day. Remember and honor. You'll have some closing thoughts about this, my friend.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's it's a happy day only because we remember, we're happy to remember the fallen heroes. But I uh it's always the best news to give them honor on on Memorial Day. So again, keep your keep your family and others that you know in your hearts and prayers as a result because they helped fight for us. So I think that's always a good way to end, Tommy, remembering the fallen heroes.
SPEAKER_00That's your thought of the day.
SPEAKER_01That's my thought of the day, and that's Jim Weissmeyer signing off.
SPEAKER_00I'll see you next week, my friend. Yeah.
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