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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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AG Bull
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | No Deal!
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
We track why corn, soybeans, and wheat weaken while soybean oil stays hot, then zoom out to the geopolitical and policy headlines that can hit farm input costs fast. From Hormuz to the Farm Bill to biofuel credits, we connect the dots between news flow and what it means for planting decisions, logistics, and demand.
• Weekly ag market recap and why June bull markets are rare for corn
• US Iran proposal and why the Strait of Hormuz matters for fertilizer, fuel, and shipping
• Specialty crop bridge aid details, payment design concerns, and eligibility limits
• FTC fertilizer investigation and what data could reveal
• Congress returns, USDA oversight hearing, and the Senate math behind Farm Bill 2.0
• USDA ag trade outlook, persistent trade deficit, and Brazil’s growing share
• China buying signals, tariff timing, and the “border trade” setup
• Union Pacific Norfolk Southern merger timeline and key questions for captive shippers
• IEEPA tariff refunds, the portal process, and why filing speed matters
• 45Z sustainable aviation fuel credits, carbon scoring, and what could change soy demand
• Record RIN prices, year-round E15 politics, and what to watch from EPA next
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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
Nashville Welcome And Housekeeping
SPEAKER_02Welcome back to the Ag Book Podcast. You're listening to Wees Meyer's Perspectives. My name's Tommy Grassofi, and I'm here in Nashville. Now, we've been spending the whole weekend building the studio. If you ever make it to Nashville, we're right across the street from the Ryman Theater, the historical theater where the Grand Old Opry started. You didn't come here for a history lesson on Nashville, but I got to tell you, the town's popping. The rodeo was in town. Big shout out to the American Cowboys and Cowgirls. Three days of rodeo. Absolutely loved it. With that, we have an action-packed show. Before we get started, I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart. All the new premium subscribers. They're rolling in. $25 a month, $250 annually. You see, you get two months for free. I also want to touch back. Last week we offered flags. We're not offering free flags this episode, but we had eight people request an American flag. And you betcha we're going to get those American flags sent out this week when I get back home. I have some travels here in Nashville, some other places this week, but then all folks who ordered flags, flags for everyone. We're going to look like Oprah giving out free cars. You get one, you get one, you get one as we roll into uh 250 years of America. We also want to thank our sponsor, Trade the News. Trade the News is an audio squawk service. We are proud users of Trade the News. All of us on the AgBO media team, including Mr. Jim, have trade the news, and you should too. Of course, if you'd like a free trial, trade the news, go over to Trade the News. Tell them the AgBull boys sent you like a free trial, trade the news. That is an audio squawk service, and they'll be back live on air here in just a little bit. Couple housekeeping notes. It is 5 31. We didn't record Friday. We didn't record Saturday. But the good Lord wanted us to record here on this Sunday. It's a good thing we waited because we have some breaking news. With that, let's bring in the star of the show. He's going to clear his throat, get something to drink, catch it. There he is. Hold on. Not yet. Not yet. Hold on. Mr. Jim, I love him like a brother. There he is. I know somebody's home. Happy Sunday, Jim. Good to see you. I'm going to bring all the energy I can. I don't want to go full blown Jeb Bush on people this Sunday afternoon and be low energy. I understand we have an action pack show. We have breaking news. But first, we must do what we always do. Let's get in the market, sir. You ready?
SPEAKER_00Yes. Look at the last two columns. That's the change for the
Weekly Market Moves And Red Screens
SPEAKER_00week. The change for Friday. And the right-hand column, the farthest one, the change for the week. And look at that red. There's only one green, soybean oil, because that's in a robust bull market now. It's uh the growing demand for all types of uh of uh veg oil, soybean oil, uh, etc. And the corn, soybeans, and wheat is just having a corruption here. They they had a pretty good run-up there, Tommy, for a for a while. And you rarely have bull markets for corn in June anyway. I think they're waiting to see acreage and yield prospects for the year ahead.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it's that time of year where everyone starts arguing with everyone about what yield is, and people get really nasty on the old interweb. I mean, you could you could lose a friend trying to predict yield uh into June. And of course, farmers are hoping that they have a record crop and high prices. And usually big bushels and high prices don't go together. We tend to see something called Jim, and you are the dean of agriculture, supply and demand. And we're gonna battle that out all month of June, go through acreage and go through other things. But yes, for you folks listening on Spotify or Apple or wherever you're getting this content, I'm gonna read them to you. Weekly changes in corn down 16, beans down 10, meal down two, soybean oil up 374. Wheat. Let's go over all the flavors. Border trade, KC spring wheat down 35, down 32, down 21. Cotton, the fabric of our life, down 127, has a 76 print. We were touching 85 just a few episodes ago. Live cattle, not that bad for the week, but a uh bad month nonetheless. As Friday was the last trading day of the month. Coming into tomorrow, Monday, it will be June 1st. Oh, speaking of May 31st, big shout out to Mr. Chris Hong. It's his birthday. Just spoke with him. He's a farmer and he's working today. He's doing what he loves and tending to those crops. Now, let's do what we love. Let's get the gossip here. Here's gossip of the day, U.S. Iran deal. I believe we have breaking news, Jim. Do tell.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, the breaking news is that President
US Iran Talks And Hormuz Risk
SPEAKER_00Trump sent Iran a tougher peace proposal to speed the negotiations. He won't succeed in that because Iran is never on the speed dial. The White House opposes unfreezing Iranian assets in any deal, so Iran won't like that. The framework has reportedly been sent to Iran's Supreme Leader for approval. Whether he's dead or alive, we're not sure. He's not running the show over there anyway. Trump reviewed options Friday in the Situation Room meeting. It took place over two hours. Now, some in the ag markets got excited because they uh after they saw Trump on True Social write that the blockade was would end and the military people could go home, he said. Well, that's not the case today. So you always have to not just see what Trump says is what he does. And the deal would end the conflict in exchange for reopening the Strait of Harmuz. That's the biggie frag. The Harmuz reopening remains the central economic objective. We'll get into that a little more. The most nuclear issues would be postponed to later talks, and as some people concerned because they know Iran's history of not following through. Iran, what's Iran saying? They rejected any demand to surrender the enriched uranium stockpiles, the dust. Now you tell me you're going to get an agreement with the Iranians under that rejection. And Turan says signing a memorandum of understanding, that's the MOU you hear about, would not alter its nuclear posture. So no nuclear negotiations are expected during this proposed 60-day window. Uranium stockpiles remain a major obstacle to a final agreement. Washington and Iran remain far apart on key terms. Bottom line.
SPEAKER_02Our very own Jed Sidwell uh he said we need a graphic for U.S. Iran. So we just went and bought this Pond 5, and I could not think of a better graphic. US Iran ticking time bomb. I mean, this thing, these people are impossible to negotiate with, Jim.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and this is why people who know Trump, you know, they say he won't sign a bad agreement. Okay, he's not signed a bad agreement yet, but how long is he going to deal with the entrenched uh Iranians? They have been rather consistent, by the way, in their rejection of this in enriched uh uranium. The military, most of the military leaders are telling Trump privately just you can't believe them on any negotiations. They'll try to string you out, uh, as they've done for 47 years of negotiating with them. When they negotiated with the President Obama, it took almost two years, 20 months. So this thing goes on and on. And the market significance, let's just get to the market significance for agriculture. Because I've got an item coming up in tomorrow's updates, which will be on Agmo Media, the the fertilizer fuel and logistic risk are becoming a growing concern, not only for the U.S., but as farmers prepare for South America's next planting season, Tommy. And analysts are telling me that if a continued closure or a significant restriction of traffic through the strait goes into July, which some observers say is quite likely, that's going to create major logistical bottlenecks for fertilizer shipments, raising costs and potentially delaying deliveries of head of planting. So, and look what that does to yield prospects, not only in South America, but if we don't get this rectified by the fall fertilizer decisions for U.S. farmers. So ag retailers and other farm groups are hoping that uh that the two countries can find a diplomatic path to end the conflict and reopen the waterway. But as we just went through, I'm gonna take the other side of that because I just I just history tells me. I was a history major in college. History clearly tells me I can't trust Iran. Never will. The calendar is the most important factor now. The strait would need to reopen by early July to provide enough time for fertilizer cargoes, fuel supplies, and shipping scheduled to somewhat normalize before that South Hemisphere planning demand reaches its seasonal peak.
SPEAKER_02And while all that's going on, Jim, the markets are doing this, they're going crazy. They're watching every tick, every headline. Yes, you got these AI models, you got high frequency traders, and we've become, for lack of a better word, a casino. I mean, we're we're the computers are running the show, and I I think to your point, you the the markets are called higher tonight. Tonight, Sunday, yeah. You probably see oil a little higher. Stocks here probably might see interest rates start to go back up. We had this massive unwinding. We had funds pull length from their longs and grains, and we told you folks on this show very we were very blunt when the funds massively buy grains that time of year. You were one of the few people who can sell it to them, and you do not want to be on the other side of that. We had a vicious sell-off on Friday. Uh, we believe we might see a low correction on Sunday. But of course, as you know, talking like that, I better run the futures and options have risk. You can get your ass kicked doing this stuff because this is adult swim only seat belts, people.
SPEAKER_00All right, let's and here's the bottom line on this. Here's the bottom line the agricultural sector is watching the same negotiations as energy traders and geopolitical analysts. But unlike financial markets, farmers have a hard deadline. Crops must be planted on time, right? The longer the strait remains disrupted, the greater the risk that geopolitical tensions morph into higher production cost and lower crop output across the southern hemisphere and maybe into the U.S. as we look ahead for next year's crops. So that's your bottom line there. Volatility on steroids.
SPEAKER_02Sounds good. Let's uh move to happier subjects here. Number three, especially crop aid. Do tell you have a lot of bullet points. Now, what did your professors tell you about uh bullet points when you were a younger man? What the heck
Specialty Crop Aid And Who Qualifies
SPEAKER_02did you?
SPEAKER_00I shouldn't tell you all I learned. Yeah, six lines. That's it.
SPEAKER_02Actually, I learned that from one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. I almost have to take off my shoes, for God's sake.
SPEAKER_00Okay, I'm gonna bottom line it probably with three bullets with three bullets. USDA announced a much higher level, 1.625 billion in bridge aid, limited to specialty crops. Sugar has already been handled. It was handled February the 20th in block grants. Okay, so I'm not gonna get into sugar. But the 1.625 billion was above the initial $1 billion. Well, that was seen as very anemic to begin with. But let me, I've taken a lot of emails on this one, and I'm not gonna poo-poo. This is taxpayers' money. $1.625 billion is a lot of money, but the way USDA is doing the payment categories, it's based on estimated crop revenues per acre and et cetera, it there's a gap between larger acreage producers. So it's not gonna be the aid type of program that's really going to help production agriculture in the specialty crop section. That's my bottom line. I'm not browbeating and saying this is not worth it, because my goodness, the specialty crops has been hit just as much, if not more, than some other crops on this price input spiral. However, it excludes participants with adjusted gross income above 900,000. 60,000 producers could participate nationwide, and that's nothing to sneeze at, Tommy. Nothing to sneeze at.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Your professor, I'm sure, told you many years ago a couple things. Only six bullet points and shut your cell phone off before we start recording. I love you. Number four, let's move on. Fertilizer issues. You get that figured out. That cell phone kids in their phones, they just don't stop. I'll read it from the top. Number four, fertilizer issues. And we got the
FTC Opens Fertilizer Price Probe
SPEAKER_02we got some three-letter acronyms, and we're not swearing. FTC. Federal Trade Commission. Yeah, look at that. Well, they're getting involved, and they're they're power lifters, they have some might, right?
SPEAKER_00Yes, oh, they do. And it was odd because this thing developed when the FTC chairman, Andrew Ferguson, went down to Texas, and there were, I think, lots of corn growers down there, 18 different groups, I think, or from 18 different states at a Texas event. And they were surprised when Ferguson, who was the speaker, announced this uh investigation. Now, let it unfold. Now, some people were trying to tell me, boy, has he already made his opinion up because he's he went down there. He made clear to them that no, he's gonna let the data uh follow itself. So they're they're going to they're going to let the investigation unfold. And and I would say courts typically distinguish political rhetoric from actual procedural misconduct, as if we because I don't think he had any misconduct. He just wanted to go down and tell the corn producers, hey, we're on to this topic, and and let the data tell us whether or not there should be some further investigations on certain certain fertilizer companies. So he basically had no conclusions. Let the study roll.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Is that uh final uh review for number four? Yes. Number five, Congress returns, Congress returns issues, three bullet points. Good boy. What do we have here? Rollins around each other Senate comes back tomorrow.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, Senate comes back tomorrow, House Tuesday. Secretary Rollins at
Farm Bill Path And Filibuster Basics
SPEAKER_00USDA is gonna go before the House Ag panel Thursday, and there's a pulpourie of topics that she's gonna uh ask to be addressed. Of course, we just talked on fertilizer, so this was a good bridge to that. She's gonna be asked, what have you done on fertilizer short-term, longer term? Is going to make any impact? What about those countervailing duties on Morocco? We uh uh uh President Trump said a couple months ago that he may use emergency executive authority to delete them. Well, he hasn't done anything yet. She's gonna be asked probably about the support, and the White House does support year-round uh E15. She'll be asked to talk about, hopefully, about the uh President Trump Xinping uh Xi Jinping.
SPEAKER_02These are all Rolle. Are you sticking with Raleigh? Yeah, Rollex, yeah.
SPEAKER_00These are these are the topics that she's gonna address. Okay, so it'll be an update, Tommy. That's the bottom line of this hearing. It's always good to have a cabinet member up before Congress under oath, so they can give any updates. And of course, she'll be asked about the Senate Farm Bill 2.0, in which the the Senate Ag Committee, remember the House has already passed their version. It was more a partisan version that will be uh look different once we get the Senate Ag Farm Bill version, and they're continuing to work on it. Senate Ag Committee Chairman uh Bozeman from Arkansas has said that they'll release language on Farm Bill 2.0 this month. In fact, he wants to have a markup session on Farm Bill 2.0 yet this month, but it will not include uh a change in California's Prop 12, unlike the House version does. That's not gonna make it in the final farm bill.
SPEAKER_02We're still talking about the piggies from Prop Star.
SPEAKER_00Still talk about, yeah, that's the Save Your Bacon Act, but uh maybe means well, but it ain't gonna be in you know Farm Bill 2.0. And they will and Bozeman's going to avoid anything controversial. That means this pesticide labeling uh language that was taken out of the House bill at the last at the last hours of of the debate because it was too controversial. That'll remain the case in in the Senate bill. The key issue we keep on saying in the Senate Farm Bill is Bozeman needs 60 votes to to avoid cloture, to invoke cloture, to avoid a filibuster. And that means he has to work with the Democrats. In this case, uh Amy Klobuchar, the ranking member from Minnesota.
SPEAKER_02She's got some of that Colin Peterson talent to work on both sides of the aisle.
SPEAKER_00She does. She's uh fair in most cases, has a good staff, etc. She's Minnesota nice, in at least in negotiations. And there's a story there, but we won't get into it. But but the key Democrat issue is they want some changes in how some of the SNAP costs to the states are going to be handled in the years ahead. They want it delayed because it's costing a number of states, including more conservative uh-powered states in the in this country. And I think Bozeman will deal with her on that. The question there is whether the House will go along with any Senate changes. So, what I just told you, by the end of the month, we should have the release of the Senate Farm Bill, the markup of the Senate Farm Bill, then we go into a House Senate conference to see whether or not the House can accept some of the changes that the Senate's going to make, and then we'll determine whether or not we can have a bill that the conference report that passes both the House and the Senate. That's the bottom line on that one.
SPEAKER_02Oh, very good. Hey, every episode, you know, we you say a word or you say something, and I'm starting to get in the habit of almost every episode uh wanting to teach people something, and usually that first person's myself, but let's take this moment to be a teaching moment while you're talking, Jim. I Googled what is a filibuster? How did filibuster start? Any any ideas? Do you know the history of a filibuster?
SPEAKER_00Well, I don't know the history of it, but it's changed over the years. I do know that. Well, do you have something? Oh, Jim, of course I do.
SPEAKER_02I wouldn't just pop this on you. It originated in the early 19th century as a tactic to delay legislation, leg legislative action. The term filibuster comes from the Spanish word for pirate, reflecting disruptive nature, initially used in U.S. Senate to prolong debate or continuous issues. This is like when they go up there with a diaper to talk for 12 hours, gained prominence with the introduction of unlimited debate rules in the Senate. Notable early filibuster occurred in 1853 over a bill related to expansion of slavery, evolved into a strategic tool for minority parties to block legislation. That is your educational piece of the day provided by Jim Wiesemeyer.
SPEAKER_00I love to learn, and that's a learning. Yeah, you remember that just because if you if you have a college degree, actually your real education starts uh once you get your first job and it continues through the rest of your life. We had an ag trade outlook report this past week. USDA raised the fiscal year 26 ag trade outlook, but the deficit remains
USDA Trade Deficit And Brazil Pressure
SPEAKER_00historically large. The export forecast increased on stronger expected overseas sales, corn, etc. The current fiscal year's ag exports, exports projected at $176.5 billion. The imports forecast at $205.5 billion keeps the deficit at $29 billion. That that's in the red, by the way. Where for years US agriculture's claim to famous, we had a net surplus, and now we've got multiple years of deficits. The trade deficit would remain the fifth largest in seven fiscal years. USDA again included no commentary or market analysis on the report. The China forecast was unchanged at $12 billion. Despite recent gains in corn demand, South American competition continues to reshape global grain trade. That was clear in the report. Brazil is gaining market share in soybeans and corn exports. That's what that report showed. It's going to be interesting, Tommy, in the months ahead as we get into the China. And we've got we've got an item coming up here, how USDA comments on how they have to project China, China's trade with the US relative to the Trump Xi Jinping agreement. And also coming up in the WASDI reports in the future. I think it'll be later rather than sooner when they reflect the demand because that additional $17 billion gives China flexibility on what they purchase. But we'll add more on that in a minute.
SPEAKER_02That sounds good. Let's move to number seven in China buying.
SPEAKER_00Hey, we're talking about bridging. The first sales of U.S. beef to China was reported by USDA. Yes, it wasn't a lot. Three metric tons of beef for delivery in 2026. I'll take it. The first sales this year with 196 metric tons of sales carried into 26 from 25. The net sales of almost 1,800 metric tons of pork for 2026 delivery. The bigger trader interest, Tommy, the number two issue I'm getting in emails and calls from traders and farmers is about this border trade concept. This one right here? Not that one. Not that one. It's easy to fall into the well, we may end up that way as far as the case. What the heck?
SPEAKER_02Tell us what this new border trade is, my friend.
SPEAKER_00I'm telling you, this is the biggie because the markets are trying to determine right now when both
China Tariff Timeline And Border Trade
SPEAKER_00countries, but especially China, will start lowering their tariffs, additional lowering of tariffs on U.S. farm products, that 10% tariffs. Now, I I've talked to both sides. Some traders think it'll be sooner rather than later. I wrote a story on this Saturday. It's on agbolemedia.com that I would say it's going to take a little bit longer than some traders think. The reason U.S. trade rep Jameson Greer has has said that the USDR is going to call in the Federal Register for public comments, and that'll usually take about 30 days there. And then they'll have to negotiate some more between the U.S. and China on this. So I think we're talking 30 to 60 days probably on this one, but it'll be in time for the possible Xi Jinping trip to Washington in late September, Tommy. But this is key because when they lower the tariffs, we'll have to see what on. What's the specific tariffs on soybeans and corn and sorghum, etc. Now they also have a quota on corn, so it's not just the tariffs on corn. They have to adjust the quota maybe as well. But in the interim, some companies may be building an exportable supply of certain products to China to get ready for what they believe are forthcome are forthcoming sales of U.S. farm crops to China. So that's what's in the marketplace now.
SPEAKER_02Okay, that's a lot of moving parts. I mean, China's so key. We're gonna, you know, you don't have to love China, but you have to love to trade with them. Is that a a free statement?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, that's true. But I'm saying uh for the future, I just don't see I see us hopefully building markets elsewhere because when Trump leaves office, I think you're going to go back to a really geopolitical and economic battle big time between China and the U.S. And you never know which way that can go. So that's why I applaud U.S. farm groups by urging, uh pleading with the administration and others to ink new trade agreements with other countries. What I just said is don't count on China markets for the years ahead.
SPEAKER_02Okay. And we're listening, and you your your listeners listen. So that's an initial China number seven. UPNS merger. You're talking trains here, and we have some. We happen to have a train sound. That's our best graphic we could do here. UPNS merger. What's that mean, Jim?
SPEAKER_00We had some news. The the Service Transportation Board, that's STB, they
Union Pacific Norfolk Southern Merger Clock
SPEAKER_00conditionally accepted the revised merger application between Union Pacific, that's the UP, and Norfolk Southern. That's the NS. The board requested, however, additional information from the railroads, and they have to supply that information by July 27th this year. And they requested more details on competition impacts, access for captive shippers, that'll get agriculture's ears, service assurance plans, uh gateway and rail car supply issues, market share projections, downstream merger impacts, passenger rail effects, and an environmental analysis. Now, some people tell me, boy, is that signaling that the STB may reject the request? I'm just saying what some people are telling me. The the service transportation review could take up to one year after the information is submitted, Tommy. So a final decision is likely in 2027. So there's your timeline.
SPEAKER_02These things take time, right? This one. Absolutely. All right, let's move to that. Was eight. This is nine tariff refunds. Do we probably need a graphic of the treasury, right?
SPEAKER_00Yes, because the uh the they the they're continuing, the government is continuing
IEEPA Tariff Refunds And Deadlines
SPEAKER_00to process the IEPA tariff refunds. IEPA. Well, I I forget what it means. I'll Google it.
SPEAKER_02I'll Google it. You still keep going.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, because remember when the Supreme Court said, oh no, no, no, that's a no-no. So Trump, the Treasury Department had to then start refunding through what they call their CAPE portal. More than $20 billion in refunds have reportedly been issued so far. A lot more to some importers are still facing delays tied to claim verification. There's a legal fight over Section 122 replacement tariffs. So that legal fight continues. That's what USDR announced as a replacement once the Supreme Court ruled. And trade groups are urging firms to file refund claims quickly. You better get them in, is it's kind of the message I'm hearing. IEPA stands for?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, International Energy Economic Powers Act.
SPEAKER_00It looks like it started Emergency, not energy, no?
SPEAKER_02International Emergency. Okay. Did I say something?
SPEAKER_00I think you said energy, but that's what I probably did.
SPEAKER_02International Emergency Economic Power Act. I E E P A. Started December 28th, 1977. And it's uh, yeah, this Google. There we go. Now we know the rest of the story.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's IEP. Yeah, that's the alphabet soup. We we always use Alphabet Alphabet Soup.
SPEAKER_02The guy who said now we know the rest of the story. I imagine you met him several times, huh?
SPEAKER_00Well, I I you know, I was at a couple conferences of which he spoke. Oh, absolutely. Talk about a gifted voice.
SPEAKER_02Was he as good as you or better? Is anyone better?
SPEAKER_00He was better, he was better. He knew he knew how to weave that story. What a I could go to sleep at the end of his speech. Not that he was boring, he had that velvet voice.
SPEAKER_02I love it. That's uh that's a talent. He was we've lost some great ones, Orion, and you know, guys are retiring. The industry's changing, Jim. I tell you who's not taking any time off you and I burning the midnight oil. Uh here I I want to go back a second to when you said Congress is back, and then you said, you know, they're gonna swear in or under oath. And all I could think of was the movie Scarf Face, when he says, I always tell the truth, even when I lie. I mean, what's it matter whether sworn in or not?
SPEAKER_01I mean, it's all come on, man. Hey, who used to say that? That sounds like Joe Biden. Come on, man.
SPEAKER_00All right, that's why we always have to read between the lines in Washington. It's like dissecting uh uh uh certain words, and even from Clinton. Remember what is is remember what is, you know, it's words like that that get Washington.
SPEAKER_02He was told the truth till they found out he wasn't telling the truth, and then history books were rewritten. Number 10, 45z hearings.
SPEAKER_00We have uh plethora of bullet points from his let's just uh bottom line it was it was initially it was initially
45Z Credits And Soybean Oil Strength
SPEAKER_00going to be only one day of hearing, okay, ended up being three because of um the great interest in the proposed 45z are sustainable aviation fuel credits and U.S. farm groups, biofuel groups, they they want quick finalization of the rule. We're still waiting on energy department and USDA to come out with key components on carbon scoring, etc. So that's really the bottom line here is that now Treasury and the uh the IRS, Internal Revenue Service, heard all I think that they needed from all parties concerned. Uh the environmental groups called for stricter greenhouse accounting standards, etc. The shareholders clearly favored prioritizing U.S., Canadian, and Mexican feedstocks over international feedstocks. That was the bottom line. Now the Treasury and IRS can't say they don't have the information. So now in the next few months, they're going to go over this, and hopefully by late summer to early fall, we're going to have the final rules and regulations so we can analyze, Tommy, what this means for the demand for the soybean complex and corn, depending on the the carbon scoring for U.S. crop-based fuels. That's what this says.
SPEAKER_02Before we get to number 11, this soybean oil market's so robust. It's really uh you look at this crush spread where you crush a soybean and you get meal and oil. I mean, we we are a soybean oil-led rally. What could they say that takes that soybean rally away from us, Jim? Is that something you're comfortable talking about?
SPEAKER_00Well, if it depends on on, yeah, if they see that it's unworkable, that the implementation of this is unworkable, uh, or if they uh somehow do not favor prioritizing U.S., Canadian, and Mexican feed stocks. Uh you know, you you know, that could be a uh quite a negative for the U.S. soy complex. I'm not predicting that, I'm just saying that's what you know, you know, people will be looking at it off track. Absolutely.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, very good. Let's get back to number 11. Then we have 12, and you're gonna finish it up with some powerful uh positive words. What do you got?
SPEAKER_00The US-Mexico-Canada negotiations, they will intensify at the middle of uh this month. The U.S. trade negotiators were
USMCA Review And Enforcement Questions
SPEAKER_00in Mexico City uh last this past week. Jamison Greer, our U.S. trade rep, did not attend because remember Trump had a cabinet meeting. Well, Jamison Greer decided to attend that, but yet he talked virtually on the phone with his counterparts in Mexico. Bottom line on this one, farm groups continue to want to preserve the core framework for USMCA because they know we have a North American market. They want that access to continue. The key issues continue to be dairy trade Canada. They want Canada's uh dairy trade to open up, biotech approvals, it takes too long, produce uh standards, that's more Mexico in the fruit and vegetable area, an enforcement mechanism, any trade agreement, including that with Canada, including that with Iran. How are you going to enforce any agreement? And so it looks like uh you know Mexico and Canada account for roughly one-third of U.S. agricultural exports. You think they're not important? And yeah, yeah, and and farm organizations favor a targeted enforcement over a major renegotiation. Most people tell me that come July 1, which is the trade review date for the USMCA, they won't come to a final agreement. So they'll just have a series of extensions, which is okay. It's not the end of the world. And so I think these talks are going to go on a lot longer than people realize, but the USMCA will stay as a major, mostly positive factor for North American trade, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02Let's take her to the end. Number 12, elections. Not the same corn as the corn we trade.
SPEAKER_00No, corn. John Corner.
SPEAKER_02We had a spelling error
Texas Primaries And Ag Political Power
SPEAKER_02here.
SPEAKER_00John Corden Cornyn was the long time, is the longtime senator from Texas. He's more establishment, at least some people say. I think he's more conservative than people know. But Trump came out and favored his opponent right at the last week or so of this deb uh of this primary battle, Ken Paxton. He easily beat Cornyn for the Senate race, which shows you the clout now of Trump in primary races. Maybe not once it goes national. We'll see. The Democratic challenger is James Tolerico. Now, he's he's he has, I'm trying to be charitable, he has very odd viewpoints that is very very far left, if not over the cliff. A lot of commentaries I've seen, even the Cook Political Report moved this Texas race now between Ken Paxton and Taller Rico from a likely Republican to lean Republican. I just don't see it myself. After looking at the issues with and talking to Texans, more than a few of whom I know, I just don't see this. I think once the Republicans detail Taller Rico's positions, he's trying to back away from them. I think that this will still be a safe seat for the Senate. The other one in the primary last week, among many others that I want to talk about, is Texas's 19th House district. The Republican candidate and a friend of mine long time, Tom Sell, easily won the primary. And let me just tell you about Mr. Sell. He's gonna win that race. And he'll he'll well, it's very the his district, that district is about as Republican as you can get. Okay, so I I can even predict that one pretty good. Okay. Um, Tom Sell is somebody to watch for the future. I I don't even have to check the books on him because I know him. He is he's gonna eventually be the Mr. Go-to man for agriculture in the house. The reason he knows crop insurance, which means he knows crop insurance agents, he knows the the the vendors for crop insurance, the AIPs, he knows cottony better from uh from Texas, he knows cattle quite well, and he knows corn and soybeans quite well. So and so he knows the whole kitten caboodle, okay? And so he can be balanced, and he's a fair-minded person, he's conservative, absolutely, because he echoes his district, but he's one of the most fair-minded people I know, Tommy, in this town. So we're gonna eventually have him on a special program. And so listen when Tom Cell speaks, listen carefully because he's balanced and and he brings a lot of experience with him. And he's he's a great family man, he's religious. I mean, he's the person that we need more of in both the Republicans and Democrats. So that gives me hope for the future that somebody like him is going into the House.
SPEAKER_02That sounds really good. Jim, before we get out of here, I'll just give a verbal thanks to all our new uh premium subscribers. Jim, tell the folks a little bit how you're we've been having meetings with the website people.
New AgBull Hub For Jim’s Updates
SPEAKER_02You're starting to migrate your stuff over to www.agbull.com. And uh pretty soon they can just go to We Semaier, if you could spell that, bless your heart, dot ag W-I-E-S-E-M-E-Y-E-R dot A G. And that'll go right to your whole landing page that we're building at uh Ag Bull Media. Do tell, sir.
SPEAKER_00I'm excited because I saw the draft concept, and it's I think more than a concept. You and I were both, please, Tommy, if if if I heard your comments right.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00It's gonna have graphics, it's gonna summarize probably four to six of the main topics, maybe up to eight, that I write, the plethora of items I write each day, and it's gonna be capsulized on the site where it'll also have links to the archive of my full update reports, which is about 12 pages long, right? Yes, at least. And because it's a digital Agnes paper. So if you want research, you can have it. If not, read the summary at the beginning. So I handle all factions of uh people and and readers, but I'm excited because it's it gives me a one-stop shop, finally, that my viewers and listeners and friends and uh new people coming up on Capitol Hill, staffers. I love when staffers get my stuff because they're the ones who help make the decisions up there. Yeah, so actually, when you if you type in weesemeyer.agnow, I did recently, Tommy, it takes you to Ag Bull Media right now. Yeah, that'll be changed.
SPEAKER_02The URL be the URL be changed.
SPEAKER_00But I'm telling you, audience, it's coming. The things you've told me for for more than a few years, you you want to uh have the ability to go back and see what I said on certain dates, or a one-stop shop for just Jim. If you had four to five of the most important things you wrote about today, what are they? That'll be on weasomeire.ag coming up in what a month or so?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, we always say a few weeks, but a few weeks end up being a month and June holidays, fourth of July. But hopefully we get her done before America turns 250. How's that? Or you and I combined H at 250, whatever comes first. With that, you have some travels coming up. It looks like you said you'll be going to DC. You said I quote, I never go to DC unless they pay me. And then June 10th through 13th, it looks like the fabric of our lives is bringing you out to the lovely state of Colorado, and then stage to finish up, my partner.
SPEAKER_00North, yes, North American Renderers tomorrow afternoon, and should be a beautiful day in DC. Can't wait to talk to them. They have a fly-in for their members, so that'll be fun. But I want to end it now, Tommy, on a good note. Okay. Rin prices, R-I-N, that's the renewable identification numbers, surge to record levels Friday
Record RINs And What Comes Next
SPEAKER_00as biofuel compliance costs climb. So that tells me they soared on tightening supply expectations, elevated feedstock cost, and a widening gap between renewable and petroleum-based fuel economics. So that underscored the growing stress within the renewable fuels markets. And it raised compliance costs for refiners and fuel blenders. Now let's connect dots. The compliance cost for refiners and fuel blenders is part of the reason that gets into the debate that we're having on year-round E15 because the small to medium refiners will tell lawmakers our costs are going up. Our costs are going up. We need some waivers under certain situations. So you can see that the how this morphs into other issues. D4, what we call D4 biomass diesel rins, they climbed to around $2.34 per gallon equivalent, while D6, that's conventional ethanol rins, reached around a little over $2.22. Those both set fresh all-time highs. What's the bottom line? This is a complex issue, but I'm telling you, it's going to make it, it continues to be a market-sensitive issue. That's why the soy complex is making higher highs and higher lows. As far as when I was a market reporter, I'd write it that way. The record-sending move highlights how biofuel policy, feedstock markets, and energy prices are increasingly interconnected as the Trump continuation continues to evaluate future renewable fuel mandates and broader energy policy objectives. Sometime this month, Tommy, June, June, I should say in June, we're going to get EPA's proposed rule for the 2020. Remember, they've already announced 26 and 27 renewable fuel mandates. And we're going to see if they're going to continue to be pretty robust in the soybean, biodiesel, and renewable diesel area. So we've got some more news coming out in June relative to the future for the biofuels industry. I'm going to leave it at that because this also brings it into domestic utilization. And if the administration is smart, which I think they are, relative to they know that exports can only go so far. And you need domestic utilization of corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, cotton. And this is one big step of how they can put the utilization of U.S. farm products into the fourth, if not fifth, gear in the months and years ahead.
SPEAKER_02Well said. I'll see you next week.
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