AG Squawk AM 7/31/2026 with Jed Sidwell | When Heat, Crush Data, And Trade Collide

We run through the morning’s ag market pulse, from cattle’s sharp rally and hog weakness to the latest corn, soybean, and wheat quotes alongside a big overnight move in crude oil. We also flag near-term weather risks, the upcoming soybean crush data, and why the expected border-driven wave of cattle from Mexico may end up much smaller than many assume.
• live cattle and feeder cattle jumping while lean hogs sell off
• corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat quotes to anchor the day
• crude oil’s overnight surge and why it matters for commodities
• Northern Corn Belt rain chances and cooling into crop fill
• dangerous heat and dryness in the Southern Plains and feed yard risk
• oilseed crush report timing and what to watch in soybean meal and oil
• reasons cattle flows from Mexico could be limited despite border reopening
• today’s lone economic calendar item: UMich sentiment

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Transcript

Welcome And Today’s Focus

SPEAKER_00 0:11

Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM. Jed Sidwell here, live from Joliet, Illinois. Today we're gonna talk about soybeans and what's happening down there at the Mexican border. We'll get to all of that here in a bit.

Cattle Surge While Hogs Slide

SPEAKER_00 0:35

Quoting the livestock market and where it closed yesterday, live cattle and feeders saw a big jump up yesterday. Lives up $3.48 at $227.45. Feeder cattle were up $3.80 at $3.42.45. Lean Hogs across the board took a beating yesterday. They were down $2.35 at $83.35. Quoting the grain market live with our quotes from plus $500 T4 plus $500 is where we get our trading software from, and they're a sponsor of the show.

Corn, Soybean, Wheat Quotes Plus Oil

SPEAKER_00 1:12

Corn September contract is at $4.43. Right now, beans, same month, or at $11.70. Chicago wheat is at $6.57 and a quarter. The big uh commodity that would uh changed overnight was oil. It was down almost at 81 and a half, 81, all the way up to 85 and a half, where it's currently trading. Big jump there. On to our weather discussion, similar story to what we had yesterday on the weather side of things. This is our 72-hour chart brought

Rain For The North, Heat For Plains

SPEAKER_00 1:46

to us by Mr. Craig Solberg. There's going to see some much needed rain. It's that purple dot of above over there on Minnesota, above Chicago, there, that is going to kind of hit the northern corn belt to kind of get this last good soak of rain in as these corn crops start to develop and fill in those ears. That'll be much needed and it's going to cool off as well. Nebraska saw some recently that was very, very beneficial there. However, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, it's going to say dang hot and dang dry here recently. And oh man, our thoughts and prayers go out to them, especially in feed yard country there. Some of the death loss in some of those feed yards might start to get a little bit higher as things get hotter this time of year. The grain market discussion, the NAS publishes oil June oil seed crush at 2 central Monday afternoon. So pay attention to that. And the headline

Soybean Crush Report To Watch

SPEAKER_00 2:44

is kind of already settled. The soybean crush is going to be just a little bit higher. Estimates are going to be around 218. That's kind of that black dot right up there. Make sure and pay attention to soybean meal, soybean oil, and actual soybeans on Monday night into Tuesday morning. I'm sure we'll see some volume there. The livestock markets. This is a rerun slide from our Fat Tuesday show with Mr. Mike Sands. So I thought I'd pop it on real quick. If you missed the Fat Tuesday show, uh go to our website and subscribe at AgBull.com

Mexico Border Reopening And Cattle Flow

SPEAKER_00 3:23

and sign up, sign up for premium. We did a deep breakdown of what's going on at the southern border, our cattle inventory, and what to expect going into the fall with this weird kind of national beef inventory that we have. Now, it was maybe one of the most fun discussions Mike and I have ever had, so I highly recommend you go and look at that. But I'll give you a taste. This is one of the slides that we popped on here. And essentially it's in relation to the border opening here shortly. And it's not going to be this wave of cattle that come across the border that we really thought it was going to be. It's going to be much, much smaller than that. Mostly because there's been a record locale herd in Mexico, just like here in the United States. They've learned how to feed cattle better over there, and their internal production system is better. Not to mention the quarantine and the practices it's going to take to try and get these cattle across the border in a timely manner is going to really kill its efficiency, and it's the wrong time of year to bring them up here. So a pile of factors that I think at the end of the day will mean that the amount of cattle that come across the border will be rather small. On the economic calendar for today, I'll pop it up big here for you. The UMish sentiment comes out at 9 a.m. That would be central. Only one. I think I can remember one other time where we've only had one

Economic Calendar And Social Updates

SPEAKER_00 4:39

thing on the economic calendar on Ag Squawk AM. And like always, pay attention to our socials. Go follow us there. We had some great TikToks, and I'm going to be making some more today from our afternoon show with Mr. Davis Michelson there. If you missed that, I highly recommend you go back and watch it. Both Davis and Tommy were at the Ag PhD field day, and we had Tommy live on the ground running through cornfields. Davis in their fancy booth there. And all three of us had hopped on for a really fun segment. So we'll make sure to go and watch that. That's all I have for you today. Thank you for watching. Thank you for listening. Tom Leffler is going to probably come out this afternoon on the premium side. So stay tuned. I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media. We're a financial

What To Watch Next And Sign-Off

SPEAKER_00 5:27

channel that loves agriculture. Have a great day.