AG Bull
Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
AG Bull
Ag Squawk | Davis Michaelsen | Jim Wiesemeyer
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
We break down why wheat sells off even with war risk still on the map, and we explain what “prove it” markets look like when traders stop paying for headlines. We also connect the dots from diesel and refinery constraints to the Renewable Fuel Standard, bond yields, China’s soybean inventory moves, and the politics that could shape the next few months.
• wheat futures and “geopolitical fatigue” as rallies get sold without proof
• corn and soybean action after late-July rain and month-end positioning
• Iran-related war premium and why diesel and distillates can stay tight
• USDA diesel prices and what $4-plus fuel means for harvest costs
• EPA renewable fuel standard timing, small refinery exemptions, and RINs sensitivity
• bond market warning shot with higher 30-year yields and the impact on farm borrowing costs
• China’s SinoGrain soybean auctions as inventory rotation ahead of U.S. buying
• Chinese robots, AI guardrails, and the tradeoffs in tech restrictions
• midterm election uncertainty and the debate over democratic socialism versus capitalism
Go to agbull.com to check out all the lavish, premium services we are more than happy to provide. Agbull.com or call 855- 737-Farm.
Tommy's Premium Subscription: www.agbull.com
AgBull Audio and Video Links
Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
Cold Open And Friday Setup
SPEAKER_03Well, as promised, a brief encounter with Jim Wiesmeyer from Wiesmeyer's Perspectives on this afternoon's program. We'll check in with the markets, of course, as always. We'll check the settlements and whatnot. But uh Jim and I have a great list of topics to discuss. I've got uh an ice cold sparkling water. I hope you you do as well. We're gonna get ready to go. I've got that Friday feeling today for sure, people. From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson here for Ag Squawk in the Afternoon. So glad to have all of you along with us. I want to start with a question that may or may not pervade parts of this conversation. Jim Wiesmeyer is coming up. I just I had a thought. Because we've we've the political ads have started on the TV. I don't watch a ton of TV, but I do watch the news. And you know, there's there's it's political ad season apparently. And it just occurred to me a cheese purveyor is called a cheese monger, right? So what what does that say about fear mongering political ads? Does that imply the political ads are cheesy or just full of holes?
unknownCome on!
SPEAKER_03Shout out to me for making a stupid joke right from the start. Ag squawk in the afternoon. Glad to have you along. We're the financial channel obsessed with agriculture, and today today we've we've got a great one. We Smeyer just is constantly pumping out content. If if you're over on the premium side, if you are paying any attention at all, you know that that Jim just doesn't stop. He's the energizer but bunny of journalism. And so my goal, and I've done this before, is it's been a couple of weeks actually, but I've just taken some of the headlines that he's written, and I want him to distill those for us. He and and Tommy Grissaffi actually do have a standing Sunday afternoon podcast. Uh, you get Wiesmeyer's perspectives, and they go they go deeper than we're probably gonna go today. And in fact, I have threatened, Jim, if you caught our last encounter with Mr. Wiesmeyer, I did threaten to bring an egg timer so that we could go lightning round and keep things under control here. I will use it if I if I have to, but uh certainly glad that you're along and lots to get to. I've got a long, long list of varied topics. So if whatever we're talking about at any given moment isn't interesting to you, just just wait about 30 or 40 seconds and we'll talk about something else. Shout out. Come on to everybody. We spoke to an ag PhD field day, and shout out to the falls at Sioux Falls. It turns out there actually are falls at Sioux Falls. Spent a little time down there creeping around the rocks, climbing on the railroad tracks, had a great time. Me and Tommy went down there and uh just spent a little bit of time appreciating downtown Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Thanks once again to the Ag PhD crew and to the hefty crew. We got to use their studio yesterday. We sent Tommy out. We experimented with a little bit of man on the street sort of stuff. If if you've been watching us, you know we're kind of trying to build something here, and that means we experiment with different ideas. Hey, we should try and do this. We're dialing it in. You know, some stuff technologically works a little better in our heads than it does in practice, but do check out yesterday's show because we've we've got a great survey from of the uh of the grounds of what was going on there, and actually uh Tommy walked around touching touching people's beards too, which is not not to be missed. Driving home yesterday, I took the I-29 corridor. Actually, a very convenient drive for me. I-29 straight from Sioux Falls to KC, and it rained sometimes really hard. Like I had to put my wipers on high and sometimes even slow down just a little bit, of all things. Some of the rain between Sioux Falls and Omaha was uh was heavy. And I I I can't help but think that we saw some of that turn up in the corn and soybean markets today, and we're we're a little bit lower on those. In fact, let's let's let's go to the tail of the tape here. But first, let me direct you to agbull.com. You can get all the information you know what to do with. You can get text alerts. Heck, premium subscribers can call and say, hey, what's going on in the markets? What is the story there? We don't want if you already got a got a broker or somebody you work with already, that's fine. We're not trying to steal anybody away, but we do want to provide you with information. It's cheap. $25 a month, $250 for a whole year. That means two months are free when you sign up for an entire year. And you won't be sorry. How can you afford not to? We're offering great information, and we just want to to support agriculture with a nice, a nice, well-rounded look at what's going on in the markets, what's going on in the news, etc., etc. That's the end of the commercial right there. Let's go to the tail of the tape. Private exporters report the sale of 252,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery
Market Recap Corn Beans Wheat
SPEAKER_03to unknown destinations. That's during the 26-27 marketing year. Corn started the session this morning under pressure, down around four cents, while soybeans tried not to stray too far from unchanged. Wheat Futures took it on the chin, down 20 cents from the jump. Hogs bounced a little, although deferred contracts were in the red as nearby's firm and the cattle market worked to build on yesterday's heroic gains. That was early this morning. Rounding into lunch, corn continued lower, and soybeans followed into the red. Winter wheat futures added to early losses, dipping around 25 cents. The livestocks did have a clearer path to the upside, with hogs feeling particularly springy, flipped to the positive side. And let's just browse through the settlements before we begin. Before I do, special thanks to plus 500. You may know if you've watched our program before, we use plus 500 T4 software every day for real-time quotes and a host of other features. Plus 500, that's plus 500. December corn, 464, even down four and one half cents on the day. November beans, 1187 and a half at settlement. That's down just one and one quarter. It could have been a little bit worse. The August was down five and a quarter cents. Look out to the March, down three and a half, but the Novi beans at 1187 and one half. Meal and oil both lower on the day. And then over to the winter weeds, I'm looking at the December Chicago wheat, 657 and a half, down 24 cents on the day. That's one of the first topics I want to bring up to Jim because I was convinced that uh that that wheat was reading the headlines and that the market was scary enough that we weren't going to see this kind of thing. Look over to the KC, the December, down 23 on the day. 723 and three quarters at settlement. On a lighter note, the livestock's October feeder cattle up $1.32.5 on the day, $335.35. This is interesting. The the October fat cattle, which is the contract I've been watching, is the only one that's lower. Down 20 cents on the day. Let's look at the decent instead. Up 22.5 cents on the December fat cattle at $226.95. And the Lean Hogs. Let's let's stick with the October up a buck fifty to eighty-four eighty-five. That's how she shook out in the markets. And uh with that, let me bring in the man himself, Jim Wiesmeyer. We sure appreciate you taking some time with us on a Friday, buddy.
SPEAKER_01Sure. You're into my happy hour, but
Wheat Sells Off Despite War Risks
SPEAKER_01I'm here.
SPEAKER_03I've got a different button for you. There you go. Jim Weissmeyer. Jim Wiesmeyer, everybody. I've got I've got more buttons here that I know what to do with. It's great. It's great. Growing pains, am I right?
SPEAKER_01Yes.
SPEAKER_03Well, Jim, I'm I'm more than than happy to make a monkey out of myself. It it makes for a good podcast, and I think people like it. The other day I said, it looks like wheat futures have been reading the paper. That was on an upday, responding to some of the headlines out of the Black Sea, out of Europe, and and other sort of factors around the world. Today you released the headline Geopolitical Fatigue Hits the Wheat Pit with Wheat Under Hefty Pressure to End the Week. Did their subscription to the Global Chronicle expire, Jim? I think that's haven't really changed uh this week, and yet what are we uh 70 75 cents lower? Guillermo, can you pop up that chart? Yeah, Jim, talk to us about this chart. Talk to us about uh the globals and the wheat.
SPEAKER_01The reasons why. You know, Friday's break, as you said, is about geopolitical fatigue, not about the fundamentals. Nothing bearish actually developed this week. Uh Russia's ports are more damaged, not less. Europe's uh crop is smaller, not bigger. Spring wheats yield to questions are still unanswered in the US. What changed, Davis, is that traders stopped extending credit to the headlines. So, like you said, they quit reading the headlines. And with December SRW still above its July 9th close, the market is still holding a 20 to 25 cent war premium, but now they're demanding proof. They want sustained cuts in Russian shipments, actual US export business coming here and August spring wheat surprise before it pays anymore. So if the proof arrives, this market could shoot higher again in a hurry. That's what analysts are telling me. Bottom line: expect wheat to keep selling rallies built on smoke and buying only what shows up in the bills of lading. That's the bottom line.
SPEAKER_03Guillermo, can you flip to the next slide there? Because I love maps. This is this gives some really good perspective. The red dots there are ports struck or restricted in July. And uh that big yellow X there is a choke point closed. And this is is so this is this is part of the the fatigue. This is what the market is kind of waving off right now, Jim. Is that fair?
SPEAKER_01Yes, because they either needed hit every day, you know, the bull needs to eat every day, or as I said, now they want to see the next component of it, they want to see demand come in to other markets, especially the United States, because they there was some talk late today that Ukraine is still working on an alternative shipment you know basis. So I think that got into the market as well. But again, I think that they're they they know that the area has been in total war on it, but now they want to see the demand shifts, and so we're in the prove it stage.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. Oh, you know what? I see Tommy Grassoffi just walked into the production studio there. Guillermo, can you bring up Tommy Grassoffee? Let's let me bring him in for just a moment here. Tommy, I got it
Rain Talk And Equity Volatility
SPEAKER_03down across the board. Welcome, buddy. You want your theme music, I know you do.
SPEAKER_00Am I still 18, number 18 for America's Sexiest Man?
SPEAKER_0317, baby. Don't sell yourself short.
SPEAKER_00How do I move up the charts? I know Jim's getting some teeth work done, and I don't know how you improve on perfection, you know.
SPEAKER_03I guess that would be my response. Tommy, down in the corn, down in the beans. Okay, so it was raining between you know Kansas City and South Dakota. Heck, we got we got an inch overnight here in KC, but it's the end of the month. It's it's July 31st. How much impact did that have on what we saw in the uh in the aggregate I'm gonna go full screen on me?
SPEAKER_00Look at that, because uh I'm clicking the buttons. I guess what you guys see. Well, you texted me last night to tell me that you were home, and I'm glad you made it home safe, and I'm sure your family is too. You said, Tommy, it rained the whole way home. And I said, Palms out, buddy, we should start selling. And I tell you what, it sometimes it's that easy. Like if it's raining and it's the end of July and it's the month end, and you know people are corked up based on these headlines that y'all have been talking about. Some things that confused me. You know, it's Friday, and you know what happens at four o'clock on Fridays after the markets close is usually that the uh Strait of Hermoose closes again. Oil has a bid to it today. The stock market rallied back, the stock market had a lot of volatility. I'm impressed with how corn closed. It it was down six, seven cents and bounced only down four or five, like you quoted. But the wheat market had it to give up. Border Trade, KC, Minneapolis Wheat. They have started harvesting spring wheat in uh North Dakota. And up there, I talked to several clients, and excuse me, they had the haves and have nots. Now, obviously, a rain right now isn't gonna help spring wheat when they're harvesting it in the next week. So that's just silly. A rain could help rejuvenate dry soils where we're gonna plant wheat at another time. But with all the things happening in the world, you know, I I'm not so sure that the wheat bull's dead. I will just say that the wheat bull got hurt. What do you think, Jim? Because you've you've been covering this all uh all week, my friend.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, well, I headlined my weekly recap the week the markets demanded proof. And again, they need the proof that this demand shift is going to come into the United States. So yeah, I I think you're right. The the fundamentals didn't change, but the psychology did. And we still have that 20 to 25 cent premium in the market, and it can go up if we start seeing the demand come in for U.S. wheat.
SPEAKER_03Are we seeing any of that psychology creep in over to the equity side at all? Anything of note there, Tommy?
SPEAKER_00Oh, the equity is just volatility, big time. I'm I'm still in South Dakota over at the uh Hefty Studios, but uh they have a TV above me, and I've been watching on mute. A couple things I'd like to talk about. The tenure yields at 4.73, and Apple's having its worst day since 2020, yet Microsoft was up 15%. Now, this is where I want to reference Jim. Y'all know if you put your money in the stock market, not that we're saying put your money in your stock market, but Jim and I often talk about 401ks becoming 301ks. Jim said under President Clinton, he liked Clinton because his 401k became a 501k. 601k a 601k. Was it that good back then?
SPEAKER_01It was that good, yes.
SPEAKER_00Wow, that's amazing. So, what's scary is I I don't know the exact number, I'll look on my phone. But on average, over the course of you know the last 20-30 years, the SP goes up, I want to say eight, nine, ten percent in in equities. We're having 15 moves in some of the largest stocks in the world. These aren't million-dollar companies. I think Apple's worth close to six trillion dollars or something. I mean, we're talking with T's so the amount of money that's moving around the equities makes what we look like oh, wheat's down 27 cents. Who cares? Apple's lost a ton of money for shareholders, but over the course of 20 years of owning Apple. Speaking of Apple, if you do remember, and we'll go full screen on Davis. Do you remember what stock Forrest Gump he bought he bought the his buddy some some kind of fruit company as well? I agree with no. I mean, in the movie Forest Gump, he referenced buying the stock of a fruit company named Apple. So these are great American companies. I don't like the volatility. I mean, if you're a trader, oh, you like the volatility, but this is so much volatility that some people think we're gonna hit a tipping point. Now, I don't know the exact quote, but I want to think I I noticed on CNBC yesterday Sand disk was up 25%. The Korean stock market, the overall indice, was is having 15% moves, and it's it when our markets close at night, and then all of a sudden you see a big move in equities, you'll see our friends at Trade the News, big shout out. Can you give the boys at Trade the News a shout out? Um all of a sudden, trade the news, the audio squawk service will be telling us Korean stock markets down locked limit. I mean, these are huge moves, yeah, and it makes me nervous. And but this is where this is so great because if we add up all our ages, put Davis and I with a 50 and a 50, Jim with a 75. I mean, those are some years on this call right here. You know, we have some years behind us, and Jim, over history, pull a Warren Buffett. You shouldn't be looking at your retirement account every day, correct?
SPEAKER_01No, no, no, not not in these types of markets. I adult up and down, just let it ride if you're younger.
SPEAKER_00If you're an investor, right. But what we do in commodities, we're not investors, so full full disclosure as a commodity brokerage firm, as a service that provides information to people, pop up the disclaimer there. Futures trade involves risk. When you're the American farmer, you are not an investor. Jim doesn't go buy corn and say, I think I'm gonna hold this baby for 20 years. That's not what commodities do. The job of the commodity market is to produce the most amount of that commodity at the lowest of price and get rid of the inefficient producer. So stocks and commodities are nothing alike. I like trading commodities.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah. It's more a question of of managing risk, it's a it's a whole different animal there. Uh so you're still out at Rancho Hefty there, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02Oh, yeah.
SPEAKER_03And time expires. Sorry, Tommy, you got egg timer. We got to let you go. Stay out of the corn over there, buddy. If you caught yesterday's show, he got uh he got lost in the corn, actually. Dr. Barry. Well, Jim, Tom did make a good point. We we hit a certain point of the week, and then suddenly something happens over in Iran. Let's talk about another one of your stories, the war premium. High fuel and materials costs will outlast the fighting in Iran. When we talk about risk management, part of that is is information
Iran War Premium And Diesel Squeeze
SPEAKER_03and and being ahead of the game as much as possible. The core problem is arithmetic, you wrote, not headlines. The world is burned through its inventory cushion, and most of the material that has stopped flowing has no alternate alternate route to market. Give us a little more on this war premium that may outlast the conflict in Iran, which has no end in sight, is my is my opinion on it.
SPEAKER_01No end in sight from what we know right now. Yeah. Crude could retreat quickly if we do have a durable peace, if we do, but diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline are going to respond more slowly because refining and product distributions remained constrained. And we've drawn down, not just in the U.S. with our strategic petroleum reserve, but around the world. And global refinery runs, as we said, are still 6 million barrels per day below year earlier levels in June. That's perspective. And so a meaningful uh processing rebound or supply isn't expected until 2027. So fertilizer, freight, packaging, food cost, they're going to filter through the economy with a lag. Nearly 30% of global fertilizer trade normally goes through the Strait of Harmuz. What's the bottom line again here? Input costs are likely to decline gradually rather than collapse when the shooting does stop and stay stopped. So, what I just said, we're gonna have lingering, and this is ties into a lot of other things. The the Fed has to watch this thing relative to the inflation and interest rates, etc. So, and diesel supply. I don't know whether we'll get into that, but there's your there's your biggest market this week as far as the input side. That we've we went we went sky high again.
SPEAKER_03As you yeah, I'm looking at USDA's numbers here, and this is as of as of July 24, USDA reporting. And by the way, I'll I'll be going through this and all the fertilizer and fuels numbers as I do with charts on Thursday of next week. I'll take the show by myself because I I want to just take some time with what these numbers look like now and and how they compare, maybe the year ago, so you can get an idea of what we're looking at because fall's coming, everybody. Fall's coming. But if I'm looking at Illinois, this is from USDA's cost of production report, up 57 cents over the two weeks between reports at an average of $4.44 per gallon for uh farm diesel in Iowa, not much better, up 48 cents over the same period at $4.19 per gallon. Man, that's just that's expensive. Diesel, you put a four-handle at all on diesel in Illinois at what did I say? Four forty-four. Jim, that's rough.
SPEAKER_01Adds thousands to your you know, production uh cost or harvest cost. And there's reasons why. We said lower Asian refinery runs, particularly in China, refinery close uh closures, deferred investment, limited spare processing capacity. U.S. refineries, here's one that'll scare you, were operating near 97% of capacity last week. That just leaves little room to increase output. Another plant suffers an outage.
SPEAKER_03So they're running a full clip, and we're still sitting at an average around 420 a gallon between Iowa and Illinois.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. So harvest, trucking, heating oil demand could arrive before stocks are adequately rebuilt, and that's going to keep diesel margins high, even if crude oil market softens. That's the bottom line.
SPEAKER_03You're out there in the Northeast, and I do know that the Northeast is a pretty big user of heating oil to heat homes and some businesses, I would imagine. New England. New England, yeah, is is how big a deal is it? Because at some point it's going to get cold over there, and they're going to be turning up the thermostats. And if we're already tight on distillates in general here in the nation, boy, the the the cost to keep the heat on is just going to be astronomical.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's the affordability argument in on steroids for for New England coming up on the on the on the crude. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03All right.
SPEAKER_01Regretfully.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, very good. Well, let's stick with the fuels here a little bit. You texted me the other day that there could be a big announcement today with uh with a for sure, for sure. And on the uh the RFS on August 3rd, I believe, didn't
EPA RFS Rumors RINs At Stake
SPEAKER_03the judge uh decree that they had to have the announcement out by the third? What do we know on that deal?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, they're saying there were some rumors it could be out today, no later than uh Monday. The EPA committed to a rule by early next week means they could come out today. They love six o'clock announcements to you know interrupt my supper, especially on a Friday. Yeah. But there the if the ruling's going to come on the remanded 2024 SRE petitions, they involved HF Sinclair and uh Delix, uh Allen's refinery. The agency, EPA, still has dozens of waiver petitions pending as the September 1st deadline for the 2025 renewable fuel standard compliance approaches. Now, what's EPA considering? They're considering extending the compliance deadline, and that would ease immediate rent buying pressure because they've gone up like a rocket, but it would prolong market uncertainty. So if you'll recall, the final what we called set two, the 2026-2027 renewable fuel standard rule, that reallocated 70% of the exempted 23 to 25 obligations, limiting but not eliminating the demand loss from SREs. So we're gonna have to see. Here's the market significance large approvals could initially pressure rinse and soybean oil, uh, if that's what's announced between now and Monday, but the longer-term impacts depend on how much of that waived volume is ultimately reallocated. So you have to listen to one really big word did EPA reallocate any amount that they waived? And if they if they it's a hundred percent, then it's friendly to the market. And if it's not, what percentage is it? And that's what's going to affect uh soybean oil prices, rins, etc. That's that's the issue, and I think it'll be a barometer for what they'll do in the future for 2028 and later. So that's why this decision coming up is important.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, very good. Another I I know you've been watching the the bond market, and I wanted to sit down previously, but I was traveling and just couldn't get my head around it. Uh talking about bonds.
Bonds Warn On Debt And Rates
SPEAKER_03And here's another headline from just recently Walsh's honeymoon is over. The bond market just fired a warning shot. I feel like if I'm recalling right, you had your eye on the 10 year, and you and I were going to talk about it and didn't get a chance to do it. So let's let's make some time now. The honeymoon is over for Warsh, bond market firing warning shots. Yikes.
SPEAKER_01Well, he taught Walsh talked tough on inflation, but he offered neither an immediate rate cut that a lot of bond traders wanted, and uh analyst wanted as a surprise, nor did he really give a clear strategy for restoring price stability. Now, I want to talk about the 30-year. The 30-year treasury yields moved above 5.2%. That was a 19-year high. Now, if that's not a significant factor, I don't know what is. And it's what some analysts characterize as a market vote of no confidence initially. Now, the yield curve initially twisted. That means long rates rose while shorter rates declined as investors questioned whether the new Fed chairman, Kevin Wars, would actually tighten policy. There were three FOMC voters, you know, you know, Fed presidents, wanted an immediate quarter point increase at this week's FOMC meeting. And that placed Walsh under growing internal pressure ahead of the September FO, I think it's mid-September FOMC meeting. Now he's gonna give a speech in in August, you know, next month, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. That he I doubt if he gives any signals. That's just Walsh, but we're gonna have to listen to him. Again, that's bottom line. Persistently high long-term yields mean greater mortgage, business, and farm borrowing cost, even while the federal funds rate remains unchanged. But the bond market, I've always said, is the really only boss Washington, D.C. has that they can school a Fed chairman and Congress quickly if they want to. So you gotta watch those yields.
SPEAKER_03Tommy, you started in the bond market yourself. I don't know if you're if you're still there with us or not. Tommy, wherever you are, any any thoughts on this? Because you you that's where you started. Any any thoughts, right? Quick. Nope.
SPEAKER_00Oh, he's muted. Audio. He's muted. I'm back. Hey, walk-up music. Can I have some walk-up music, please? You can absolutely you can.
SPEAKER_03Those dance moves are gonna shoot you straight to 15, baby. 15.
SPEAKER_00If you're watching this and you made it to the dance moves, drop a comment down below. So I I was blessed to trade in the bond market, and big shout out to my mentor there, Mr. T. Lance Murdoch. I tell you guys something. There was nothing in all the pits, there was nothing like the 30-year bond pit. That thing was massive. And one day we'll have a former pit trader on to talk about it. But the the bond market is one of the only places that can call bullshit on everything. Yes, and this is why is because Jim, how much is America in debt right now? 33 over.
SPEAKER_01I always think the over.
SPEAKER_00Like we're getting towards 40, right?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, too high.
SPEAKER_00Right. So that's our debt market. The United States is close to 30. Our deficit is 39 trillion. And I could look that up while you guys are going back. But the reason they can call BS on it is because we have the Federal Reserve. Let's let's let's connect the dots as Jim has taught me how to do so well. You have the Federal Reserve, and they control the Fed funds rate. That is the shortest-term interest rate. That's where if there's a liquidity problem, you can go to the Fed window and as an institution borrow from the Fed overnight. That's the overnight Fed funds rate. That's what we talk about. That the Fed left the Fed funds rate, the overnight rate, unchanged. But the other markets, which Jim referenced, is the yield curve. And that's why Jim said it got a little wonky that every every different thing was doing different. So you have your twos, your fives, your tens, your thirties. Now, what some countries tried to do when interest rates were at record, record, record lows during that time when we all had a little illness is a bunch of countries got really smart and they said, Oh my God, we have a bunch of debt. While interest rates are at record lows, let's create a 50-year bond. Remember that, Jim? The 50-year bond. And that's why President Trump and this administration is so sensitive. It feels like every time that 10-year starts going up towards 4.75, all of a sudden good news comes out and the stock market goes up. But the bond market will always call BS on the world. And the bond market is signaling with red flashing lights, there could be a problem. Could be a problem.
SPEAKER_01The gross U.S. national debt is 39.8 trillion. The debt held by the public is 32 trillion.
SPEAKER_00And I have some of that debt because of you guys. I just want to tell you, both of you guys, joker on the left, joker on the top right. I'm holding some of that debt. I'm out of here, boys. Thanks for having me. Sure. Well, I don't I don't deserve to be on this show.
SPEAKER_03Thanks, Tommy. We'll have him back in just a few minutes. I bet we'll we'll find an excuse to bring him in just because he likes the theme song so much. If he keeps dancing like that, he could maybe be up to 14, maybe 12.
SPEAKER_01Maybe he can run for president.
SPEAKER_03He may. Well, that's funny that you say that because I was gonna ask you this. I just made a note here. We're we're sidetracking just a little bit, but I I've been wanting to bounce this off you ever since on Kevin Walsh. I was talking to to Jared Dillion. I don't know if you're familiar with him or not. A pretty thinky guy. And he was talking about he was talking about Walsh, accused him of walking loudly but carrying a small stick, and then went on to say Warsh wants to be president. He may have presidential aspirations. I I wonder if you might might respond to that, or have you share the that view?
SPEAKER_01He's got the the looks that President Trump always likes, uh casting character looks. He is smart. And I think as a not as an economist, but as a former trader, T-R-A-D-E R, he can adjust pretty quickly. So I don't know whether he has political aspirations, but he's a sharp cookie, but he is being tested. You know, there's an old adage: whenever you have a new Fed chairman, the market's going to test you. They did Greenspan and they did other, they did other Fed chairman, and he's being tested right now. So that's why there's growing consensus that we could get a uh short-term interest rate hike in the September FOMC.
SPEAKER_03Given the nation's debt, I'll ask you the same question that I asked Dillian on the program here in in you know reference to that. Is he the sort of man that we need to be president? Someone who you know who has come up through that world and who is maybe a little bit more of an economic thinker than anything else.
SPEAKER_01Well, I think to be president, you just can't be a smart person. You have to be, you have to feel pain, you have to feel others' pain, you know, and you really do. And sometimes successful traders don't feel the pain of others. I'll just leave it at that. I think you have to have that's your political component of a person who runs for president. They have to be watered down to a degree, but they have to be a good listener.
SPEAKER_03I know that you were uh you were working just as hard as you are now, maybe not quite as hard as you are now when Mr. Clinton was president. Wasn't he the one that said uh feel your butt yeah?
SPEAKER_01I feel your pain, I feel your pain. Yeah, yeah. But he was a good politician, he just could have done more except his foibles.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah. I was I was a lot younger then, a lot more impressionable. I just liked that he played the saxophones. Wasn't he on Arsenio Hall?
SPEAKER_01He was absolutely that could have won the presidency for him.
SPEAKER_03That's cool. That's this is what we need in the president. Now I'm like, Do we need an economist to be the president? Is that what we need? Yeah, how things change, how things change. Uh Sino Grain auctions clear way for China's U.S. soybean buying push. You took me to school via text message on what it means when China sells state reserves,
China Clears Space For Soybeans
SPEAKER_03when they have these auctions periodically. They've got some scheduled is it a month of auctions?
SPEAKER_01Like some the next one's going to be, I think, Wednesday. Yeah. They they offered this initial auction a little over 500 and you know, 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. That was from the 2022-2025 crop. Traders expect additional offers of about a 510,000 tons uh per week as they create storage capacity. This is a good sign. I think they they accepted uh I think 50% of the initial uh uh auction. Now, some people said, oh, that's bearish. Well, I don't necessarily think so. It's it's inventory rotation, not new soybean demand by itself, but Davis, it's an operational step that's needed before large US arrivals of U.S. soybeans begin. So the clearance rates and prices matter. So the uh a weak bidding would signal ample supplies and poor crushing margins in China, and that could potentially slow the pace of future U.S. bookings. But I just think let's see next uh Wednesday, I think it's Wednesday, that we're going to have the next uh auction and we're gonna see how that one works out. But to me, it's a positive sign that they're clearing up space in order in the October forward, October, November, December aggressive you know, buying and shipment period for U.S. soybeans.
SPEAKER_03So, in my is it fair to equate it to harvest is coming, I gotta clear out my bins, I gotta sweep out the bins, make some room for this new crop that's coming in for the farmer. That means I'm gonna be out in the field and I'm gonna I'm gonna be harvesting, I gotta have someplace to put this to market it. Are they is it basically equivalent to them sweeping out the bins to make room for intended purchases? Is that how you're viewing it?
SPEAKER_01Partly, partly, but also they've had some the aging soybeans in their reserve, so it's refreshing. It it allows them and they love you the quality of U.S. soybeans. So I think this is a is multiple uh advantage for them, you know, for the future. So remember, uh these are 2022 to 2025 crop year beans. That's that that's uh in in reserve.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, the old song goes domo arrigato, Mr. Robato. It's uh from the 80s. That's in Japanese, but to China, the view is no, not a mas on the robots. One of your I was fascinated by this just because it has the word robot in it. I'm such a nerd. Chinese robots waved off by the US. That wasn't quite your headline. But this this could cause some some discomfort,
Chinese Robots AI And Security Dilemmas
SPEAKER_03a little bit of kerfuffle between the Chin Chinese and and and our nation here. Talk to us, tell us the story of Chinese robots.
SPEAKER_01Okay, it's they they're they're ahead of us in the robot technology. Now, the initial emails I got got and calls on this saying, oh my goodness, this this upset the timeline on the September 24th when China's leader Xi Jinping is scheduled to come to Washington, D.C. No, no. The FCC effectively blocked new foreign-produced uh robot models from not just China, from elsewhere. Existing products can can be you know continue to be imported. It's again foreign-produced devices generally. Now the policy, I think Trump did that to for the US to catch up with China's technology. It's kind of the reverse of what China did for years with the US. They cross-engineered our products and then did it themselves. This is what the U.S. is going to do with the Chinese robots. So this gives us some breathing room on it. But is China upset? Of course, they're upset about it. Is it enough to be a major negative in US-China relations? No, I do not. That's what China watchers are telling me. No, and it it will not upset the timeline for the two presidents to get together late September.
SPEAKER_03Now, you did use the term robots, and that's kind of what what piqued my interest in this particular story, aside from US China relations. When when we're talking about robots, are we talking about automated systems? What what are we talking about technologically there that has raised such eyebrows?
SPEAKER_01Both humanoid and quadruple uh robot models, the ones that that uh clean your floors, okay? That's big Chinese products right now, but humanoids too. Because you're seeing look at you know you'll you'll look at the US investments in in robots going on. All all all of it. All of it. But China's fastest growing robotics industry for sure.
SPEAKER_03Between AI and the advancement of robotics, some people have hearkened it to the Terminator movies, where the robots eventually will go to war with humanity. I've even thought, you know, if if you look at it on paper, biological organisms are uh could be considered a parasite by the machines there. I'd I'd just like to get you to to kind of philosophize a little bit there. Do you do you share the the AI robotic takeover? If this sucker goes you know completely rogue on us, there's nothing we can do about it. Well I don't get your head out on all that, Jim.
SPEAKER_01I think there's always something we can do about it, but I leave nothing uh for for for granted on this one. It's just we're we've unleashed uh a uh uh some very interesting technology and it could go many different ways. So I wouldn't rule anything out. I really wouldn't.
SPEAKER_03Is there a is there more of a not a direct security threat, but a a national sort of informational security concern with automated systems from China?
SPEAKER_01True, it could be, but the problem is if we put too many guardrails on, then China just gets further ahead or they'll catch up with us on AI. I think they're almost there, they're not ahead, but then we we stand pat. So that's called a dilemma, by the way, a conundrum. Uh so it these are not easy issues. These are not easy issues, yeah. Yeah, but I tend to look at the positive aspects of both. I can't wait to buy my first robot that folds clothes, you know.
SPEAKER_03I keep waiting for that self-cleaning kitchen to come out.
SPEAKER_01Oh, they'll be there. I mean, just it's it's unbelievable. Elon Musk, that's where he's putting all a lot. I should never use all a lot of his investment money now is in the robotics uh industry. So I he's got a pretty good track record. I'll follow him.
SPEAKER_03So you think the Jetsons wasn't all that far off.
SPEAKER_01Way ahead of their time. Yeah, and to to compliment President Trump, remember when he said uh space wars or whatever Space Force? He was spot on there, and he was laughed at by some people. Yeah, look at look at what Ukraine has done relative to the boogeyman Russia. Now they're winning, they're basically winning that war with their technology of drones. And so this is just the beginning of a uh of a new type of uh yeah, warfare. Absolutely it is. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Well, I'm gonna we're gonna move on to the next segment of the program here in just one moment, but I did at the very top mention fear mongering and cheese mongering, and wondered if
Midterm Politics And Voter Math
SPEAKER_03they don't belong in the same category when it comes to politics. Is I'm not sure what to make of the prognostications about the upcoming midterm elections. And like I said, I'm starting to see commercials on the on the TV, and it seems like if you if you ask a Democratic supporter, they're they're gonna take it in a in a waltz. If you ask a Republican supporter, they're gonna say, no chance, we're gonna hold strong, everything's gonna be okay. Where does the truth lie on that in your mind?
SPEAKER_01I think uh number one, we don't know yet. Number two, both political parties are about even. That's why we don't have a wave election, because we've got animosity at both ends. Now, the unknown that I keep asking these so-called election experts is Clayton Yider, former USDA secretary, CME, head of the uh mercantile exchange, former U.S. trade rep, he's no longer with us, one of the smartest people in my career. I he once told me that civility will come back to Washington when either political party becomes a true minority party again, where they can't come back into power the next election. My question for why I brought that up is are the Democrats creating the possibility with this allure of Democrat? Democratic socialism, and I'm being uh uh nice here, versus capitalism, are they going to turn off a lot more voters than what the polls are showing right now, especially independent voters? Now they can win democratic socialism in the cities, okay, but can they win statewide? And the first test is gonna be Michigan, I think. If if the uh leaning Democratic Socialist on the Democratic side wins that one against a traditional Republican opponent who used to be in in uh in Congress, I think that'll be the initial signal that I'll take that this November 3rd elections may not be the wave for Democrats that they think it it will be, because I don't I don't I just don't see it.
SPEAKER_03Maybe I'm maybe I'm looking at these situations wrong, but I but I read about mom dhammy out in New York losing popularity. I read about oh I can't I can't remember the the woman's name, the mayor of Seattle, who I think has also got a similar platform say again.
SPEAKER_01They're at all.
SPEAKER_03Are the are those who maybe like the idea of the democratic democrat socialist agenda gonna look at those and say, well, businesses are moving out and it doesn't really work not to you know to abolish the police and uh you know a lot of these policies are sort of pie in the sky and look great on paper, but really just sort of lead down a road that we don't want to go. Do you think that people will realize that or will they? I mean, the the old fallacy is well, we'll do it better this time, yeah. You know, is is that fallacy just still alive and well?
SPEAKER_01It hasn't worked for hundreds hundreds of years, so yeah. The longer New York goes, the people who voted for Mandami are going to see consequences, and they're beginning to see them right now. So yeah, I just don't think you can paper over some of the stuff. A lot of money is leaving, billions and billions of dollars in in tax revenue is leaving New York City. And uh again, the you've got an intra-democratic party war going on right now between the traditional Democrats, or even the more liberal in quotes, Democrats, versus the Democratic Socialist. And they say they say they have a big tent. I'm not quite so sure on that, because when people hear some of the things that you they want to do away with the Senate, they don't really want the they want the presidency under under Congress, god forbid, and they want to significantly alter the Supreme Court, those things have consequences, and of course the free, the free aspects, nothing is we know as a human being, nothing is free. You have to pay for it. Not in their case, when you go through it. So for the first few years or so, maybe they can they can do this free aspect, but somebody has to pay it. You know, yeah. I jokingly say in some of my speeches that with my age, maybe I should become a democratic socialist because I want everything free, because I don't have that many years left. And by the time I die, you know, they'll uh they'll run out of the money, you know, to to to pay it. It just it's and this is what gets people with any age on them so flustered right now with what's happening in this great country. They're saying, what is going on here that we have to educate capitalism? Absolutely, which tells me to my bottom line, this is what you get when you have an educational system that is not teaching the right things. And I think we're suffering the consequences, both at the elementary, mid-level, and definitely in the university systems, not all, but more than a few.
SPEAKER_03Well, and I hate to I hate to swing us into politics, Jim, but I I guess I did bring it up. I my final question, I guess, would be will moderate Democrats pull the lever for a socialist just to support the big D, just to support the Democrat Party.
SPEAKER_01Because what some of them will, some of them will.
SPEAKER_03It's gotta be a bad taste in their mouth to to to vote Republican, and I understand that. You know, I get it.
SPEAKER_01They just won't vote. There's some much like Republicans who who are again the independents who are against Trump, if they don't like the Democratic alternative, they just won't vote. So it'll be curious to see who votes November the third. But to be fair to the Democrats, there are a few in the traditional party that are taking on the social democrats, and one of them is Fetterman from Pennsylvania.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah, I like him. Yeah, I really do.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, so yeah, I don't I just don't think that's even politics. It's just this is a election year issue of do you want to go the way of of of democratic socialism versus the aspects that we know as capitalism? Of course, capitalism can be and should be improved. No one's saying that, sure, but do you want to throw it out? I think that's the issue, and that's not being political. I mean, you you've got some democrats behind the scenes saying, oh my goodness, what we've unleashed a uh call here of Bernie uh Bernieites, you know, and I think it's an interesting thing to watch out for for this November 3rd election, and that's not really getting politics, I don't think.
SPEAKER_03Right. Guillermo just texted me here. It's Mayor Katie Wilson out in Seattle. You mentioned Bernie Sanders. I can't see Bernie Sanders without thinking of Larry David anymore. Have you seen uh Larry David do Bernie Sanders? It's just yes, Larry has ruined me for Bernie Sanders.
SPEAKER_01I love us I love a socialist who has multiple homes, million, million dollar homes. I just he's doing all right. Oh, capitalism is quite well for him, baby.
SPEAKER_03Well, I tell you what, I uh confessed I was feeling that Friday feeling when we started, Jim. I don't know if I can take any more. You've been very generous with your time. Sure. Let's let's move on to an easy one. You're out there in the DC area. How's the weather? What's the weather been like?
SPEAKER_01We need rain. We need the rain that you went through. Yeah, I'm turning on my sprinklers, and water
Weather Notes Fun Facts And Wrap
SPEAKER_01out here is not cheap. Yeah, and they double it through the the runoff part, the uh the sewage and all that. So we get hit both ways out here. So I need rain.
SPEAKER_03Well, the National Weather Service is calling for a heat wave over the southwest to intensify this week, peaking and expanding into the intermountain west and northern high plains this week. And critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast in the northwest and the northern great basin this weekend. Particularly dangerous situation, red flag warnings have been issued. All right, Jim, before I let you go, I'd like to get to some items of mild interest. Or can I can I interest you mildly? Sure. Sure. First of all, today apparently is National Avocado Day. You eat avocados?
SPEAKER_01I do sometimes. Avocado uh dip. I love avocado dip. There you go with a beer.
SPEAKER_03Okay, okay. What I like to do, I like to take a half avocado and slice it and get it out of the little shell there, but sort of leave it intact. And if I'm having like maybe a delicious pork chop or something like that, I put that on the side, and then I fill a little hole with hummus. Yes, we kind of cheese.
SPEAKER_01That sounds very good.
SPEAKER_03Oh baby. Oh, that's living on this date, January or July. January, July 31st. In the year 781, the oldest recorded eruption of Mount Fuji occurred in Japan. Somebody wrote it down apparently in the year 781. In 1886, it's the birthday of animator Fred Quimby. Uh, he he drew uh Tom and Jerry. He's the Tom and Jerry guy. We talked about the Jetsons, but he was born in 1886, Fred Quimby, and in uh 1989, the year I graduated high school back in the 1900s, Game Boy was released. The uh the video game, the Game Boy.
SPEAKER_01Those are always good perspective items.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. Now, I I do also want to commit an injustice against you, if you don't mind. Can I can I exploit you for just a just another moment longer? It's today's Ag Bull Injustice. All right. This is the time when I ask my guest to do something that had I not looked it up on the internet, I wouldn't have been able to do myself. Okay, it's an injustice, it's unfair. But this is this is the way we roll here. Here we go. Today's Ag Bull Injustice. How many different animal shapes can potentially appear in a box of the original animal crackers? You remember the one that looked like a little little circus wagon with a little string on top, and they're animal crackers, and they're the they made several different animals. They it would be a you know random mix in each box here, but how many animal shapes did they actually make?
SPEAKER_01Well, it should be seven, but it could be twelve.
SPEAKER_03Twelve, twelve is your answer. Yeah, there are 18 different animal shapes in the Animal Cracker Zoo, apparently. Yeah, at least I have double digits. Yeah, that's today's egg bowl injustice.
SPEAKER_01Now I'm gonna count them over the period of time.
SPEAKER_03Oh, you gotta count them and see how many you get. Absolutely.
SPEAKER_01That's my new collection.
SPEAKER_03It's a delicious collection. You could do a lot worse. Uh, Jim, thank you so much. You and Timmy are gonna get together in the Tommy and I will take off.
SPEAKER_01Uh, we're gonna see if EPA is gonna make that announcement before our program, and we'll have perspective on that. We'll talk about uh the latest on the uh screw worm and what's what's on coming August 24th, and we'll talk markets again, what what it means, and we'll just uh update a couple of other items as well. The ADM, the good news for soybeans is their their further investment in the soybean processing facility, and we'll have facts and figures on that one.
SPEAKER_03This on Sunday with uh Jim Wiesmeyer, Wiesmeyer's perspectives with Tommy Rosafi, the 15th sexiest man. Let me uh let me direct you to trade the news. Well, we use the news to keep us on top or we use trade the news, excuse me, to keep us on top of the news. My whole squad uses it to see what moves the market. Real news that you can actually use. Trade the news. That's trade the news. And if you haven't had a chance, go to agbull.com and check out all the lavish premium services that we are more than happy to provide. Agbull.com or call 855-737 Farm. 855-737FA, followed by R and N M. That's Farm. Jed Sidwell will set you up bright and early Monday morning, and then I'll have a conversation with Dwayne Bussey from Bolt Marketing Monday afternoon. Have a safe and happy weekend. Thanks, Jim, for the chat. You've been I I took you down some weird roads today, and I appreciate you coming with me, bro. I roll with it.
SPEAKER_01I roll with it. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Very generous with your time. Jim Weesmeyer, check him and Tommy out on Sunday. Be out sometime Sunday evening for your viewing pleasure. Davis Michelson here for AG Squawk in the afternoon. Have a great weekend. Safe weekend, everybody. We'll see you on Monday.
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