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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
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AG Bull
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Everyone is charging for Premium Information
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We break down how faster technology, prediction markets, and premium access to headlines can tilt the playing field and whip prices around before anyone can react. Then we connect the dots from Corn Belt weather to farm bill politics, cattle trade policy, Fed signals, energy volatility, and new demand for soybean crush.
• concerns about paid early access news, market fairness, and front-running risk
• grain markets turning lower as weather premium evaporates
• on-the-ground crop variability, flood pockets, and why August still decides soybeans
• what to watch in the USDA August 12 crop production report
• phased reopening of the US-Mexico cattle border tied to screwworm inspections
• Fort Morgan labor dispute and the Cargill union vote
• Senate farm bill pathway, manager’s amendment, and year-round E15 prospects
• Why California E15 retail access likely lags due to pump rules and infrastructure
• Fed decision, bond yield surge, and why bond traders “test” new leadership
• Iran headlines, Strait of Hormuz traffic, and diesel and input cost implications
• EPA small refinery exemption decision risk for RINs, ethanol, and soybean oil
• ADM soybean crush expansion, stronger basis potential, and 45Z demand tailwinds
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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
Sunday Kickoff and Tech Reality
SPEAKER_01Happy Sunday, everybody. Tommy Grassofi, AgBull Media, AgBill Trading. Thanks for joining, Jim and I. We're taking time out of our Sunday. So hopefully you could have a really positive week ahead and continue to educate yourself. One of my themes of my speech, I had the opportunity to travel up to Baltic, South Dakota, and I spoke at Ag PhD Field Day. Believe it or not, you may not believe this. Some people had to wake up at four in the morning to drive to the field day. I spoke at 7.05, and my whole speech was talked about technology changes. You need to keep up with it. Technology is not going to wait for you to make up your mind and that for the American farmer to say, hey, it's okay to have AI. AI is going to move forward. Now, Jim and I are not AI robots. We're real people. And we're coming into your home, your house, your cell phone, your tablet. And we got to tell you, we're excited to be here. But we did learn something from last week's episode. President Trump was watching. And when we told you all that Jim is going to a pay-for-service at the start of the year, it looks like President Trump jumped on that idea and moved with it himself. All that and more in this week's We Spires Perspectives. Enjoy the show. It is Sunday, fun day. Jim and Tommy here coming to you live from my living room, live recorded. Welcome to Wees Meyer's Perspectives. I have the one and only Mr. Jim in the background. I told him, Jim, I put your mic, your mic on mute, cough, do whatever you gotta do. Let's see if you can get through the first slides without hacking it up. But I tell you what, there's a lot of very, very serious issues. Just some news over the weekend. Looks like the war is canceled. Going to be a very dynamic open again tonight. And uh looking at the betting markets, it looks like the betting markets have oil much lower here. Uh, these are betting markets, which we're allowed to talk about. These prediction markets are becoming part of the futures markets, and it's just getting wild. Let's bring in the star of the show, Mr. Jim himself. Jim, see if I hit the right button. Good afternoon, good morning. Let me see here.
SPEAKER_00The DC area because we're finally getting rain. Uh, much like some previously dry portions of the corn belt, we needed rain and we're getting it for almost all day today.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Should we should we just get right after it and talk about this headline? This is unbelievable. This, this, I was driving home Saturday from uh I picked up a half of beef. I got to give those folks a shout-out real quick. I I do have to give those folks a shout-out. I promised them I would. I picked up a half a beef from Canton Lockers, Canton Lockers in Canton, South Dakota. Got the card right there. Great folks. If anyone is watching this from South Dakota and has ever brought beef to Canton Lockers, they've been in business for a long time. And boy, uh, is my family excited. We're having friends and family over today, and we're making meatballs with some of that ground beef. We're having steaks on the grill. It's going to be a wonderful afternoon at the Grasafi household. Hopefully, I get to go for a walk after this episode because we have so many exciting things to talk about. It's my understanding the White House was watching last week's episode and they saw the announcement that Jim Wiesmeyer is going pay to play, and they said, Hold my beer, let's do the
Paid Early Headlines and Fair Markets
SPEAKER_01same. What do you think?
SPEAKER_00Well, yeah, but at a much higher level for President Trump. And frankly, personally, my personal opinion, it's the selling of the presidency that I don't like to see. I think it's upwards of if you want the full-fledged early release stuff, it's $100,000, Tommy, where mine's only going to be in the hundreds as opposed to a hundred thousand. I just think this will probably be taken to court. Just my opinion, I'm not a lawyer, but uh I just don't like to see this as selling the White House. I'd never have. I don't care whether you're Democrat or Republican. It's just that's uh advance information of a public person, our president. And I just don't like it.
SPEAKER_01And from a trader standpoint, that's called front running. That's called front running. You can't have information, do an order for yourself and then and then do your customers' order. You you lose your license for that. But here openly in the public, the president saying pay us true social $100,000, and you'll get the release of the text first. With AI and all the automated high frequency tradings, these texts, these texts that come out on True Social literally go through the system at the speed of light. And then computers pick out keywords and execute. They might hear one thing and sell oil, they might hear one thing and buy oil, they may sell bonds. You know, if you hear the word uh the feds, you know, say something like hawkish or dovish, those keywords alone can move the the markets tremendously. I've never, it feels so dirty. I want to take a shower, Jim.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it where yeah. Where's the individual trader on this one? T-R-A-D-E-R. Uh, where's the America First uh uh uh aspect of this? I just don't like it, period. I just I'm a purveyor of information and it's gotta be on an equal playing field, and this is not an equal playing field. So that's why I think it'll be debated, cussed, and discussed. And I'm gonna see if this continues. We'll we'll see if it goes through all the way.
SPEAKER_01And a real quick show note, thank you for everyone who added themselves. Real quick note if you're already on Jim's free newsletter that he mails out all the time over the next 15 to
Premium Newsletters and What Changes
SPEAKER_0116 weeks, he's gonna move to a premium service. If you're on the newsletter, you don't need to do anything. If you're not on it, you need to go to the Ag Bull website, www.agbull.com, and say, I would like to be added to Jim's free newsletter. Now that newsletter will be going to a payfor service at the end of 2026, and it will be extremely affordable. To give you an example, President Trump's service is going for $100,000 a month. Is that correct, Jim?
SPEAKER_00Well, at some level, if you really want the fastest, yes.
SPEAKER_01Right. And I think you're gonna be in the hundred dollar per year range, in in the hundreds of dollars per year range. But I I do know that you and I have spoken about this tremendously, and it it just plays in so well to uh you and I working and partnering and getting you to convert. I've already converted, we're doing this show, but I think what people uh need to know is that this show itself, Wees Myers Perspectives, will no longer be free in 2027. And several people who love markets have subscribed to the AGBL platform. That's myself and my team, and that's $25 a month, $250 annually. Picked up a whole bunch of new friends at the AgPH Field Days, and on the AgBull website, you will have your own page, your own column, your own store, and folks will be able to enter a code to it. And then as you go around and do your speeches to all the people who hire Jim to speak for every individual speech, you will in you will issue another code that will give people a discount. So when this service comes out, if you're a legacy customer, you will be issued a code and explain to people. Um, I don't think they realize the expenses behind the scenes. Explain to people what's going to happen as we start texting and automating and getting this information out quickly.
SPEAKER_00Well, there's money involved in sending texts out. So, and then I I'm rather prolific as a reporter writer, and that can add up. So, and I think most people, as long as you keep the cost in uh the key buzzword in politics right now affordable, and we will. That's my pledge to you. I'm not gonna there's newsletters in the ag sector that charge $400. There's a policy uh letter in in DC that charges eight hundred dollars a year. We're not gonna per year. We're not gonna be at that level. We're not gonna be on that that level.
SPEAKER_01All right, let's get to what we love to talk about markets, Jim. Uh, excited to be here. Oh, July's over, by the way. July's over. If you're watching this, you made it.
SPEAKER_00Yes, and now we're into the the uh uh some more seasonalities, but look at the
Grains Slide as Weather Premium Vanishes
SPEAKER_00uh red ink, corn soybeans, uh the soy sector, I should say. Look at the big drop in wheat, big big moves here. We had a few ups in cotton. Cattle, they're they've come roaring back. In fact, feeder cattle, I think, Tommy, are above in certain contract months, above the level in which they knee-jerk down when the reopen the phased-in reopening of the border was first announced. But for corn and soybeans, it's it's the weather premium was withdrawn in a big way. That's so that tells you how fast uh a weather risk uh premium market can evaporate. Wheat was a function of geopolitical fatigue relative to the Ukraine and and Russia incidents where the trade almost wanted an infraction, if you will, every day. And but they also told me, traders and analysts told me, that they want to see more business coming back to the US as a result of this Russia-Ukraine fisticups over there in their port uh areas. I think eventually you'll see that, but they want uh they don't want promises, they want proof. And so we're under this lull here because the the the weather now is predominant in the corn and soybean market, especially for soybeans, Tommy, because you can still increase that yield for soybeans, because as we well know, August weather is key for soybeans. And I think the corn market probably is getting too far ahead of itself on the downturn. That's just my personal opinion. I think that crop was uh negatively impacted before these rains came. But we're gonna see what is it, August 12th in the crop production report, whether or not we're gonna have a below trend yield.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, a little color that I drove all over the country. I left northwest Indiana. I live in Valparaiso, Indiana, when I'm not down at uh Nashville with the good folks at Nasvik. But I drove from Valparaiso, Indiana, so you go through northern Indiana, whole top part of uh Illinois,
Crop Road Trip and Uneven Rainfall
SPEAKER_01all of Iowa, and then up into South Dakota. And it's kind of like that east of the Mississippi, west of the Mississippi, but maybe more take it, just split like Iowa down the middle. The the eastern part going east of Iowa is starting to get a lot of rains. It did rain this week. Uh, we did have some showers hit or miss. We had some friends in North Dakota who got beneficial showers, but when I sent text out to clients, I would say 70, 80% of North Dakota clients have not had a significant rain in three weeks. The crop ratings, in my opinion, I think you are going to see on Monday afternoon a wide variety of crop ratings. I think you'll see some states that improved, and I think you'll see some states that drop dramatically. There is a problem in the Western Belt, and our friends over at ProFarmer Crop Tour are going to go on the tour, and they usually have a better idea, Jim, of how the corn crop's doing. I've seen several times when crop tours go out, whether it be ag resource or any of these groups, where they have a feel on the corn crop and then they're way off in the bean crop. Because if you're doing a crop tour in the second, third week of August and you catch some beneficial rains into August, September, you could put five, 10, 15 bushels per acre back on that bean yield, correct?
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. Absolutely. August weather is the key. And although we're helping a kernel fill right now, these rains are going to help, as you said, some areas. But there's been, I I also get a lot of emails from farmers, and uh not all of them were blessed with that rain. You've got the pockets of that dry. There's definitely the key market question is how much of the crop had already been impacted that it couldn't come back from the yield degradation from the previously crop weather concerns.
SPEAKER_01My my well, I want to tell you what I'm telling clients, but heck with it. I'm gonna be selfish and say, I'm not going to tell you on the show what I'm telling clients. You would need to become a client, pay, subscribe, or open up a futures and options account with myself in Ag Bull Trading. But I will give you a hint of what I'm telling clients. We're getting to that time of year where we're producing bushels, and uh, we can't just sit there, Jim, and say there's nothing out there. No, like it's not this crazy made-up stuff you make in the spring where the market says we're gonna have a horrible year. There are definitely bushels out there, but there are the have and have nots. And August tends to be a pretty negative move in the markets. And if the betting markets are saying crude oil is down five to six percent on the open tonight, that would not be a positive to soybean oil and other markets like that. So, but for the long term, we have a plan with clients, subscribers. You know what's neat, Jim? On Friday, I had uh two or three premium clients call and say, hey, markets are down big. What do you think? And then, of course, I had to talk to them about tell me about your farm, your operation, your risk. What do you think? And why, you know, why are you asking? Are you hedging? Are you speculating, stuff like that? So we just can't go out on a video like this and openly say blah, blah, blah. Every farmer has a different risk profile. You know, it if you I understand why farmers get so mad when a broker and analyst says, Oh, there's really good crop out there. America is a huge place. And if you are in an area that's struggling right now, you think the market should be going up. But I will tell you, on my drive, when I got to Iowa City, it rained all the way from Iowa City to home. And I got rerouted in northern Illinois three times because I had to get off the highway because of traffic. And as I came down to the top part of Illinois, there was so much flooding. The fire trucks were at the road, like, you know, don't cross, you know, there's water. Like there was roads closed, and my phone was beeping, flood alerts. So there was a a chunk of the United States that did get rain. Now I'm really excited to see what our in-house meteorologist, Mr. Craig Solberg, says about that. He's with Nesvik, and we get lots of reports from him. So he'll start putting out videos. And of course, if you're a client on the uh trading side, you can always access our well.
SPEAKER_00I think what's what's key for perspective, Tommy, is that yeah, the first two weeks of all until we get the USDA crop report that's based on survey, you know, there'll be a lot of speculation. But once we get that survey number, there's your template. We're gonna see if USDA throws a surprise, whether it's gonna be under the 183 bushel per acre guesstimated corn yield. And I think another test is gonna be, although we we did indeed have weather problems going in July, we're gonna see whether or not these excellent corn seed traits were enough to offset some of that crop weather concerns. All that's going into
USDA August Report and Seasonal Pressure
SPEAKER_00that August 12th, you know, survey.
SPEAKER_01And I'll give you one more canary in the coal mine. What if actual corn acres are up a half million million acres and yields down? So we lower the yield two bushels, but we pick up a million acres. That's when you really get farmers angry that they had a crop that was not in good condition and the market still went down. I'm just telling you folks, full disclaimer. Here, I'm gonna even put up a real pretty disclaimer here. August is a tough month in grain markets. Farmers who forgot to sell their old crop and have to make room for new crop, we tend to see pressure. And you know this, if I say the words F or the letters FND, first notice day. So watch as that September contract expires. Get your own grain in position. Now, do you want the good news? Not that it's the end of the show. It's not, we're just starting. We had that massive rally up in the spring in the March, and then we broke down to really far down low. And then a few weeks ago, we had another big rally up, led by wheat, corn, soybeans. Last week we're doing the show, and I say, Jim, I can't believe beans were up 54 cents on the week. If beans could go up last week 54 cents, they're allowed to go down 64 cents, yeah, like they did. But I think you have some good news at the end of the show that really brings some optimism. Let's get into the show. U.S. Mexico border reopening plans.
SPEAKER_00Jim, they do plan to reopen phased in to reopen the Douglas, Arizona to Mexican cattle on August the 24th. And
Border Reopening and Screwworm Controls
SPEAKER_00and uh Secretary Rollins at USDA has just stressed every animal is going to receive full USDA screw worm inspection, several times, by the way. That the that the secretary said. And a lot of uh a lot of uh uh importance is how Mexico also follows through. And Santa Teresa and Columbus, New Mexico could follow as far as openings if the Douglas operation goes uh okay. But again, USDA can pause this phase reopening August 24th if disease risk or Mexican compliance deteriorates. So this is not a done deal. So we've got now until August 24th to judge what's happening in the screw worm saga.
SPEAKER_01Okay, and just going over in review here, if you were worried about the screw worm, it's here. And we're dealing with it. I think we're dealing well with it, but that's just my opinion. I don't have to deal with it. But it I do have to deal with the price of the markets, and the markets are stabilized. If you were worried that they're gonna open the border, they're doing a phased-in thing. And even though the market has volatile sell-offs, the real cash market, cash is king, cash is leading. So all this noise, and if you want to connect the dots, we have screwworm, it's here. We have border reopening, it's here. Secretary Rollins and her staff have been spending an incredible amount of time down south, and uh, this has by far got to be in their top couple issues they're dealing with, correct?
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. She even went down to the the area you know this past week to show you know that concern, Tommy. I think USDA should be given good marks on this. And but the maybe the border should have been reopened earlier. That's that's looking back. And I don't usually like to look back, I look forward. So, bottom line on this one, this is a phased in to be determined August 24th. Watch Mexico to see whether or not they they are also in compliance with some of these increased regulations.
SPEAKER_01Very good. We're sticking with the cattle theme here. Union vote at Fort Morgan.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, the Teamsters local 455 members are gonna vote tomorrow, Monday, August 3rd, on the Cargill Accord. Now, some of the specifics are
Cargill Lockout and Teamsters Vote
SPEAKER_00still not well known. The deal could it could hopefully end the lockout of more than 1,700 workers uh since May the 20th. Now, I know with the labor union they've been paid some, but this has hurt the town of Fort Morgan. So by that, I just hope it's rectified. And Cargill is spending a lot of money to improve that Fort Morgan facility. So let's hope that's another element of this. If this is settled, that can continue. The union wants to improve wages and benefits, although the detailed terms again have not been have not been disclosed. Since May the 20th, Cargill has redirected cattle to some of their other plants in Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas. And so hopefully there'll be an approval vote on on Monday, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01Very good. Let's move along.
SPEAKER_00Senator Farmbell, boy, did we have uh breaking news? Of course, they make they believe breaking news Friday.
SPEAKER_01I got it, baby. Now I I know that if folks
Senate Farm Bill and Year-Round E15
SPEAKER_01didn't catch it, you were recording with Mr. Davis Michelson Egg Squucks afternoon host. And uh you guys talked about a little bit, right?
SPEAKER_00Yes, and then Friday evening, they always like to uh to upset my either happy hour or my dinner on Friday evenings, and USDA did it again. Uh, I shouldn't say USDA, the Senate did it this time. They released the language late Friday. Uh, it it does indeed include year-round E15 for ethanol. Now, this Thursday, the Senate Ag Committee is gonna mark up the bill. Now, as I've explained on AgbolMedia.com with some of my articles, the key thing to watch out for is what we call the manager's amendment, in this case, Bozeman's uh manager's amendment. That's gonna be key because we're gonna have to see whether or not it's a joint managers agreement. By what I mean by that. Does ranking member Amy Klobuchar, senator from you know Minnesota, did she sign off on that? If that's the case, then you'll get some Democrats to vote for this markup vehicle on Thursday, and it'll be approved by the committee. We don't know that. yet so the key again is will any democrats go along and we put together an infographic do we have that Tommy oh of the uh of of the what's what the seven steps we have to go before we get to the final end zone on on under yeah now you can't read all that now if you're in the video but go to the uh to to agbull.com yeah right there and you can yes.com yeah yes and and you can read it and we go through the process uh where we've we've talked you basically about the house has passed it the manager's amendment how important the Senate Ag Committee markup and vote with any amendments this Thursday CBO Congressional budget office we still need to get some scores of the Senate floor vote is ahead this tells you that this is not going to be settled anytime soon because it it it's got to go to out of the committee and then to the Senate floor and that's not going to happen until after they come back uh in September and then you're gonna have to look at the amendments on that uh whether or not they can get the 60 votes in the in the Senate and then it's got to be reconciled with the House version all the way through. So we've got many steps to go that that's the that's the concept of that infographic Tommy.
SPEAKER_01Will you debrief me again? When do they go on vacation?
SPEAKER_00They go well the House is on it and coming back at the end of August and the Senate goes out on their recess at the end of this week and they're they're coming back again at the end of August.
SPEAKER_01I got to ask you the dumbest question I'm embarrassed I'm asking you but you're the right guy to ask why are they not on vacation at the same time? Is there a reason?
SPEAKER_00The reason because the Senate has been slower in getting work done than the House basically so that's that's why they have to do some certain things under uh some spending bills and yeah defense spending nominations it wasn't that bad of a question right no oh absolutely not no i don't want to get yelled at from you you know if they knew how much we yelled at before we put the show together we're gonna have to go to counseling you and I number five reconnecting E15 California writes the pump rules yeah anyone who tells you this E-15 is going to be approved in California sooner that rather than later put your hand on your wallet because they're incorrect. Now it's gonna come but you think your state might have a lot of regulations live in California reconnecting E15
California E15 Rules Move Slowly
SPEAKER_00it's the all the pump rules the carb that's the main regulatory body in California they're expected to consider the permanent E-15 specs on September the 24th so we're we're we've got to wait even for that I think they'll approve it but now E-15 if you'll recall is technically legal in California it was last year but California stations still cannot practically practically dispense E-15 why infrastructure yeah vapor recovery equipment the hoses etc you've got the fire marshal has to sign off on it what's the bottom line on this I think it's going to be probably into 2027 before we get the first retail broad retail availability despite any carb approval action on September the 24th now I know our U.S. biofuel industry lobbyists get excited almost on everything that's positive on ethanol I don't blame them but their positiveness should be treated with a yardstick that uh if they think that E-15 is coming anytime soon to California the the retail use of it no it's not correct because all you have to do is look at the regulatory timelines in California. Late this year at the earliest probably it'll slip into 2027 despite action coming up on September 24th that's the that's the issue that we wanted to go through Tommy.
SPEAKER_01Very good let's talk about the state of California a little bit i've i've Davis Michelson came down to came up to Baltic South Dakota and we were talking I said you know what as far as
Telling California Agriculture Stories
SPEAKER_01ag squawk ag squawk a.m and ag squawk p.m his afternoon show and and just real quick update on those folks those shows stream on X you can see those around 8 a.m and 4 p.m so if you are following at Ag Bull Media you can see those those shows are on Spotify Apple YouTube those shows will remain free Jim's show will this show Weesmeyer's perspectives will move to premium but I I spent some time in California I had the opportunity to go to Rose Bowl and I as far as someone who loves agriculture I'm gonna start the myself and my team I've instructed everyone let's put a positive spin on California. When it comes to politics you know they didn't choose to you don't get to pick where your farm is right so if your farm's in a a red state or a blue state it's not you just don't get to pick up the land and move it. But you're gonna see some really great content both on the free side and premium side coming out of Davis we're going to start interviewing people in California and highlighting all the great things they're doing in agriculture when we when we bash California we're bashing once beautiful cities like San Francisco that are now actually dangerous to be in but the agricultural part of California if there's anyone watching this video from California I want you to get a whole hold of us because Davis wants to tell your story.
SPEAKER_00Davis Michelson will have you on Ag Squawk in the afternoon Ag Squawk p.m California Jim has a beautiful beautiful story when it comes to agriculture what say you yes and I can give him a few people myself to interview including the ag secretary or the equivalent of ag secretary in California she used to be a hog producer by the way I think in Nebraska and every once in a while I'll do the ag summit in California it's based in Sacramento and you see all the positives that you signaled there Tommy that all the crops and and livestock and other products that California produces and it's still a beautiful beautiful state it's just on the regulatory side farmers have to go through a lot a lot even more hoops than almost every any other state through the environmental and and uh uh other regulations and that's why in many cases some sorry industries are moving out the dairy industry uh in
Fed Holds Rates as Bonds Revolt
SPEAKER_00a big way has moved out of California right into Arizona into Arizona yes absolutely yeah that's that's super duper duper interesting let's go to slide six we had an FOMC meeting this past week the Fed no surprise held its target range of three and a half to three point seven five in other words no change in interest rates but the market didn't like what Fed Chairman Warsh uh said he didn't well they threw a tissue fit they wanted a surprise interest rate hike the bond market did yeah the vote was nine to three and that's the largest descent block of the current cycle so that's a signal there kind of Tommy hammock you know presidents hammock Kishari and Logan favored an immediate quarter point hike that could be a signal for what may happen in September once the next FOMC meeting the statement called growth solid but inflation still elevated that was the basis of the FOMC but on our next slide we get into the real significance was Fed Fed chairman's Warsh's let's back up there's people watching this who aren't quite caught up with who Walsh is Kevin Walsh is the new Fed chairman this was his was it his first press six weeks right yeah yeah and he's he's not an economist he's a farmer trader investment portfolio manager he knows what he's talking about he's nobody's fool and he's a different type of Fed chairman but the market once you're a new Fed chairman his his historically the the market always tests you and that's usually bond traders now people are saying he talked tough on inflation but he didn't signal a clear strategy and that was by design the the the the traders and reporters at covering didn't like that they're they're used to way it was that the Fed clearly signaled which way they were going to do yeah on on on you know governor yeah yeah Fed Governor Powell the investors question whether Warsh's rhetoric would translate into action they don't think that he really wants to increase rates now the only editor I've always said that Washington DC and the Fed has is the bond market. The 30 year treasury yield that's what you watch the 30 year treasury yield exceeded 5.2 percent why is that important that was a 19 year high now that's that's uh signaling to Walsh you better watch out you better increase those rates so he needs a clear message a Fed chairman always talks at the Jackson Hole Wyoming symposium this month or the September coming I think it's the 15th 16th FOMC meeting where the at least the odds are over 50% that you'll have a 25 point basis hike not a cut hike in the interest rates that's where we're at right now that you had a shaky performance on Warsh primarily because uh the bond traders are concerned that he's gonna follow through with a rate hike and the reporters just wanted more information and they didn't get it. And we all know angry reporters will take it out in print.
SPEAKER_01Well yeah they they go at these new chairman's real hard and I I do know from someone who stood in the bond pit that we we as traders we watch every word I can I I think I can remember the day pretty well the day of the Fed meeting the stock markets were down really really big they rallied back to up on the day and then closed at the dead low we're talking about thousand point swings in the Dow big moves in the bond market the but the bond market yield shot up price of the bond uh went down and 1100 over 1100 point downturn in the Dow that day that's a big move. Yeah and the bond market is the one market that can call BS on anyone the bond market will call BS on president Trump the bond market will send signals to uh let's go over the people who the bond market's like hey I have a message for you hey president Trump oil going up into the 80s and having a big month in July not cool for inflation hey treasury this is happening and so don't think these people aren't watching bond yields five six seven times a day yeah they have them on live on every screen they have and the bond market a lot of people lie and fib the bond market never fibs correct Jim yeah and this is why you say you hear the phrase bond vigilantes they they are they they they to me I like to watch them because this town needs a grown up in the room and the bond market is yeah let's take a break I'm gonna mute your mic real quick Jim you get a drink there hey everyone I just want to thank our sponsors I usually do that in the beginning I forgot because I was telling y'all how gym's going to the premium side but real big thank you to uh trade the news I spoke to the good folks at trade the news on Friday uh we're enjoying our partnership uh they like being a
Sponsors and Tools Behind Fast News
SPEAKER_01sponsor of the uh morning show the afternoon show and of course this show you're probably asking what is trade the news trade the news is an audio squawk service so I literally hit log on to trade the news and I have all my computers on here and it will be squawking information it'll say the the markets in Asia it starts at three four in the afternoon on a Sunday and it goes till four or five o'clock on a Friday it's an audio squawk service if you'd like a free trial trade the news go over to tradhnews.com and just tell them I learned about you on agbull.com and they'll give you a free trial of course we get our quotes and information when we're talking about bond yields or SP or anything else we get our quotes from T4 T4 is an app and that is from plus 500 plus500 is a FCM and uh they have offices all over the world but most of my accounts if you were to open up a trading account with Tommy Gersafi Agbol Trading Nesvik a lot of us choose to use plus 500 they've been a great partner and a great partner of the show and uh they're super excited to be a sponsor um I do want to real quick I just want to congratulate my morning crew and my afternoon crew in the morning if you haven't caught it Jed Sidwell's doing every show if he can't make it I fill in for him he makes almost every one ag squawk a.m that is a free show and will remain free. Of course super excited to have uh Mr. Davis Michelson and don't forget that ends with the S-E-N we always uh misspell that Davis is the host of AgSquawk in the afternoons and folks if you'd like to be on that show go to our website and say I think this person would be good to be on. I'd like to be on we're having CEOs high up people you don't have to be high up you could just be the working man and say I'm an electrician I want to be on book yourself to be on Davis Michelson is currently booking guests for AgSquawk. He's got a great lineup already I've seen the lineup for uh this week looks real good tend to have one or two marketing people on usually on a Monday or Friday filled with normal people in ag who are just getting her done of course I want to tell you that just excited you're here we want to continue to educate you and that the world's changing the world's changing so fast I wish you could just see some of the technologies that Jim and I and our staff use to put out the show Jim taught me something before he made a really cool graph and I still don't know how he did it.
SPEAKER_00The guy's amazing and the one compliment I can only give Jim one compliment because I don't want to spoil him but Jim's ability to change is just amazing and I I have farmers ranchers COs say how the heck do you put out as much information as you do and I I I don't know Jim how do you do it well you can teach an old dog a new trick i we're challenging that and um and I was on uh you know Michaelson's show Friday so and I may be every other week or so yeah I think so that's a Friday participant so that'll still remain free as as we go into the new year. But yeah challengers of change has been my whole career Tommy I've had great mentors Wayne Ritchie at Donag Service Meryl Oster at ProFarmer Willard Sparks at you know his company Sparks uh you know company uh you know commodities and all of them invested in people and they invested in the tools and that's what we're using Tommy and they change the tools that help you edit uh present uh infographics are connecting the dots you can't be a legacy on on not continuing to grow and that's why I like working with you Tommy and and Ag Bull because you're uh you're an entrepreneur and and again when I look back at my whole life's career Willard was an entrepreneur and Meryl was an entrepreneur and you're an entrepreneur so that's what the audience should know that we're that's why we're we're very happy you got to be happy workers you're at your job more than you are at your house usually so you just can't my father taught me early on you just can't like your job you have to love your job I love my job. Yeah I do too real quick folks you I like what you're getting ready to do in the sense that you're you're gonna go pay for it but you're still gonna be out there you'll be on agri talk on Fridays you'll be on with Davis every other Friday probably uh we'll probably make that a steady appointment but think of this think when you start in your early days if I would have told the gym a 30 40 years ago you could write something and text it out you would have said to me what do you what do you mean yo you you were doing this this god how long let me ask you a question this is funny this will answer your question I started writing on a manual typewriter then I went to an IBM selector then I went to Texas Instrument Silent 700 in transmitting copy into Iowa over the phone of course then we had the fax machines remember that first they went one page eight minutes then four minutes and that was really highfalutin stuff we thought thought I I progress can't get any better than that and then of course the computers came out and we had I had the Trash 80 Radio Shack ones where the big expansion bays and then it just developed from there that it got faster and faster and then and then of course we had the cell phone the the beginning of the cell phones and that helped you communicate the bag phones remember the bag and the thing and the whole deal absolutely and then of course the internet and that's what really changed things to me because I could travel and speak and still write in the hotel rooms and that's was the the the great change that and you could work from your house you didn't have to go into an office. So that's where we're at and again we're continuing to be challengers of change and those uh we can talk ag the ag media that is not changing they're gonna be lost they're gonna be lost because the markets have changed and they better well said my friend well said let's continue with the show did we number eight you basically said this the shell shocked equity markets because you said Wednesday's Fed Iran shock knocked more than 1100 points off the dial Thursday brought a sharp rebound as you said the Nasdaq up almost 3% the SP uh up 1.7 percent Microsoft and the chip shares led the recovery boy if you were long Microsoft you were happy Friday again continued the volatility Amazon helped uh the tech while Apple which my favorite company and yields restrained the gains but I'm still Apple to the core by the way South Korea's Cosby their mark equity market rebounded about 17% but they still remained deeply lower for July so we're not the only market that's volatile that's why I wanted to put uh Korea's uh equity market in look at the volatility there Tommy unbelievable unbelievable yeah she's she's moving and grooving and oh I got I I just gotta tell you folks I feel like I'm preaching or selling ballist Sunday and my wife went to church I stayed home but I know she's praying for Jim he needs it I need a lot of prayers and you and Ag need prayers but the world's changing it's not going to wait for you to catch and my question I was trying to ask you but then you answered it was like where were you in your career when you first had a phone and inadvertently you answered it and it sounds like about the middle of your career but now together with the partnership of what we do here at Agble Media Nesvic trading our partners at Trade the News plus 500
Prediction Markets and Insider Info Lines
SPEAKER_00you talk about plus 500 they're entering the betting markets the prediction markets these prediction markets when I tell you oil looks to be down five to six percent on the open tonight that's not a guess that's actually a place where you could put money and make a a a bet and there's this new thing that the CME's fighting with with the CFTC about these uh what's a future called that never ends Jim it what's the word for never ends it goes on infinity well there's a word for it I'll think of it when you're speaking on your thing but you know in futures right now we're trading SEP corn December corn this corn I'll think of the word and I want to talk about it because there are people trying to list products that it it's a corn contract but it has no expiration date and uh I have to Google continuation yeah that might be it yeah there's some wild things going on in markets and prediction markets.
SPEAKER_01I'll give you one example the CFTC recently fined someone a large amount of money and they were the person I I I got to go full screen on us the person who was behind the teleprompter on President Trump speeches one of the only people in the world who knew what was going to pop up on that teleprompter was betting on prediction markets and got caught. So folks just because you have access to information doesn't mean you can go just you know some of this information there's rules there's rules we have to abide by here and that's why when people get scared that oh the computers are going to take over yeah the computers are the scumbag on the teleprompter you know whatever gets you first so when you see these knee jerk reactions In the market, oftentimes as a trader, we're like, uh oh, someone knows something and it's not us.
SPEAKER_00So yeah, do everything inside inside information. Who do they think they are? A lawmaker.
SPEAKER_01Shell shacked markets. All right, number nine, Iran war.
SPEAKER_00Oh, that update updates galore because last night, here we go. I some people will say this is taco Trump all over again. Trump always chicken knocked.
SPEAKER_01Taco
Iran Signals and Strait Of Hormuz Risk
SPEAKER_01with the diarrhea like Taco Bell.
SPEAKER_00No, well, it depends on how you view it. But anyway, Trump paused the new strikes after all after saying for days he doesn't trust Iran anymore. He never should have. Number two, that he was gonna bomb the heck out of him. He used words that only Trump can use, president, I guess. But and then last night, of course, he put on Truth Social. He paused new strikes because they're pressing Iran to reopen Harmuz. Now we've been here several times before, if you recall. This is why I call him an etch a sketch presidency. He puts something out, shakes it, and then redraws it. The diplomacy remains fragile. I want to see if these talks, who are they talking to? You know, the military will probably come out by Monday morning and say, we don't agree that with this pause. The Brent, as you mentioned last week in July, gained 24%. The WTI, the U.S. crude oil market, gained 21%. That that got uh Trump's attention. I'm not gonna say that's his only reason why he's pushing pause for another pause, but it probably was an element on it. So again, bottom line on this, we have to watch the crude oil markets. They're gonna say, oh wow, this is this is gonna be negative for crude oil. We're gonna see. Watch the Harmuz traffic. Yeah, it's it's just gonna be explosive. Watch Israel because they supposedly go are going along with Trump's pause, but Israel uh is more tends not to be taco, okay? The Harmuz traffic, the Strait of Harmuz, not diplomatic promises or are phrases from both either Trump or Iranian officials, whomever they may be. That's not going to be the key. It's going to be the Strait of Harmuz traffic. We're going to see if it opens up because Trump needs that straight opened. Now, I think he's there's a significant difference of opinion from some of Trump's top cabinet and other staff on the way to go on Iran. And I think that's why you're seeing the etch a sketch ecos. One way for a few days or whatnot, weeks, and another way before. Let's bring it home for agriculture. Diesel supplies remain tight and they're going to continue to remain tight. Freight and input costs are going to remain firm. That's into 2027 based on the analysts that we talked to this past week, Tommy. We had a story on that on agbol.com. Other news this weekend OPEC Plus approved 188,000 barrels per day September production increase. So they're continuing. Although it doesn't sound like a lot, they've additionality here. That just adds to the potential bearish fundamental overtone on the supply side, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01And that's why crude's not 110,105, which brings me to a point. If we ever get this, if if we ever get this bad boy fixed, we could see much, much lower energy prices. And if I had to guess, if I was a guessing prediction market type of guy, I would imagine there's a huge, huge, large motivation to get energy prices down before the midterms, or this party is absolutely gonna get smoked.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's it gets into your affordability. And energy prices are like taxes when you go to the pump. If you're gonna get closer and closer to five dollars, that's a big tax, and you don't you don't buy enough. It it it definitely is a drain on other expenditures. The White House knows that. So they're wanting now, there's different ways to do it. Some of his military people are saying you've got to have a multiple week military exercise, including Israel helping us. Uh but he was he was considering that by he, I mean President Trump, but then he chose to go into this negotiating phase again. And I just I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see it. Iran hasn't done it for 47 years. Why why are they changing now? So, but there's your uh pacifist within the White House. J.D. Vance is vice president, but Marco Rubio, I think, would be more aggressive in wanting to deal with Iran, not talk with him. But anyway, watch it. What we just said, volatility is gonna remain. We're gonna look at the crude oil markets, watch your Strait of Harmoose traffic. It it continues to affect agriculture relative to fertilizer prices, diesel fuel prices, which are sky high again, and that's gonna that's gonna remain relatively firm for the in into early 2027.
SPEAKER_01I did a little googling while you were talking. The word I was trying to say, I couldn't, I I couldn't even think of it. Perpetual, perpetual. Yeah, they never end, right? No, never end like your long corn. Infinity, yeah, like an ETF.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Okay.
SPEAKER_00As kids, we used to say infinity times 20. I mean, it's talk about redundant.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, all right. We got to get going here, otherwise, the series can be longer an hour.
SPEAKER_00Let's go through Russia, Ukraine war market impact. Uh we can handle this right away.
SPEAKER_01Okay.
SPEAKER_00The market had geopolitical fatigue. That's why it really hasn't changed
Russia Ukraine Fatigue Hits Wheat
SPEAKER_00over in Russia and Ukraine. They're not much grain is moving out, but the market wants to see proof that exports that the U.S. and other countries are reaping the benefits of the port battles going on in Russia and Ukraine. Until that happens, they're just saying we're going to keep that 20 to 25 cent premium that we put in to wheat initially as a result of the Black Sea War, but that's it. That's what that that's what those bullets say, Tommy. Right there. We can go on to the next one.
SPEAKER_01Yes, sir. Number 11.
SPEAKER_00Is mandatory country of origin labeling a cool thing again? Okay. There's going to be an effort for an amendment Thursday if it's held that it can be
Mandatory Beef COOL Returns to Debate
SPEAKER_00an amendment, but I'd say it's a thing again, but I don't think it's close to becoming law. There's a Thune Booker, Corey Booker, Democrat, John Thune, uh Republican. They have a measure, American Beef Labeling Act, that would restore mandatory beef origin labelings. Now I know in the listening on and the viewing audience, this thing is a sensitive issue. If you're for it, you're definitely for it. I understand your reasons why. Okay. We're just reporting what we're hearing. The bill requires development of a WTO compliance system. RCAF wants uh M. Cool added to the Senate Farm Bill. We're going to see if that's a called a legitimate amendment that will be voted on Thursday. Industry divisions and trade retaliation risks make markup inclusion unlikely. That's our bottom line. Even if it gets out of the committee, our sources say it probably won't end up in a final farm bill, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01Last week. Number 12, EPA SRE announcement. HF Sinclair.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and Delic. And Delic. Those are the two firms that that have applied
EPA SRE Decision and RINs Fallout
SPEAKER_00for waivers, the SREs. Now, EPA is going to announce either Monday, tomorrow, or Tuesday. There were some errant reports they were going to announce at Friday. They were wrong.
SPEAKER_01This guy Lee Zeldin.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well, yeah, he and his top people are going to make that decision. But it's going to be an important one, Tommy, because because it involves HF Sinclair and uh and the Delek, the refineries, but both are petitioning the concerns about the 2024 renewable fuel standard obligations. EPA still had 42 SRE petitions pending in mid-July. Now, the key, this is what you have to watch out for. The assumption is that EPA may grant about 50% of them. That's just the baseline conjecture. We don't know for sure, going into this. Now, grants without reallocation, in other words, if they don't reallocate the waived gallonage to other refiners, that'll pressure the RINS ethanol and soybean oil market. So that's why this is a market-sensitive announcement. If they reallocate uh the majority of those waived of those waivers, that would protect the demand, the ethanol and soybean oil demand. So we're going to see which way EPA is going to go. And that I think will signal for the future what they're what they're going to do. And also remember, we said the E the there's a permanent E15 language in the Senate Farm Bill. And they also got into the language of uh these SRE waivers. I'm not going to get too detailed right now because we've got the specifics on agbull.com, but the uh EPA may be directed more than they are right now if the Senate Farm Bill language is approved.
SPEAKER_01Very good. Number 13, then you'll take us home. Corn Belt Rains. Let's talk weather a little bit.
SPEAKER_00You saw it, and you said rain expanded from the Dakotas, parts of Dakota and Nebraska toward the central cornbelt. There's portions of Iowa, though, that didn't get that rain.
Corn Belt Rains and Yield Uncertainty
SPEAKER_00Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois have additional rain chances through today. So we'll update that tomorrow morning with maps. More moisture is timely for corn and soybean grain fill after we have that dry July, Tommy. The coverage is still uneven. Some northwestern production areas may be short-changed. The market impact, however, you look at it, the market told us, we don't have to guess, was initially bearish as rain removed part of the weather risk. That's what we talked about earlier.
SPEAKER_01Very good. All right, that's that for that. And uh we'll uh pull this out. The my my uh clock's working. I don't know if you can hear the clock ticking. The clock's ticking on us to get this done in under an hour. I do want to thank you all for joining us. I do want you to know that if you are not getting Jim's free, currently free uh newsletter, go over to agbull.com, go under contact us and say I want to be on Jim's list. If you're already on the list, don't worry, don't do anything. We're just giving you 15 to 16 week notice that this video will no longer be free and out into the public. This is Weissmeyer's Perspectives, and Jim's putting together a whole subscription package, which is like what you're getting now, but delivered in such a new modern 2026-27 digital format. And of course, all this costs money to do, to text, to have compliance, to keep everything so we don't end up like that guy behind the teleprompter. Jim has some really cool news to take us home, and I'll pop up the chart and I'll read it, and then you'll talk and I'll pop up the chart again. But ADM expands soybean processing capacity. I I like what this is. Take us home, brother.
SPEAKER_00I love when ADM and other soybean processing facilities
ADM Crush Expansion and Stronger Basis
SPEAKER_00either announce a new plant or expand existing ones. And that's what ADM did this past week. They they're gonna expand four existing crush plants, not build a new greenfield facility. The sites are Frankfurt, Indiana, Deerfield, Missouri, Lincoln, Nebraska, and Spirit Wood, North Dakota. What's the significance here? The upgrades are going to add about 700,000 metric tons of annual processing capacity. That means better basis for farmers in the draw areas of those of those facilities. And it's needed because a combination of the of the uh RFS program and the uh coming uh sustainable aviation fuel 45Z, we're gonna need all the all the soybeans we can get. AGM estimates the projects are gonna create demand for more than 25 million bushels of soybeans annually.
SPEAKER_01I like the way that sounds.
SPEAKER_00Yes. So that includes storage, equipment upgrades, removal of processing bottlenecks. They're scheduled for completion between mid-28 and early 29. So this is not a long term, it's not gonna take all that long. And ADM cited renewable fuel and vegetable oil demand because it's supported by U.S. biofuel policy. So that's where policy can connect the dots, Tommy. No investment cost was disclosed, but other North American expansions are under review. Driving at home the market impact, stronger regional soybean basis, more meal production, don't forget that, could pressure meal prices, but aid the livestock feeding sector. And that's all in that, that's a positive, Tommy, and we'll end it right there.
SPEAKER_01I'll see you next week, my friend.
SPEAKER_00See ya.
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