AG Squawk AM 8/7/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Drought, Flooding, and Beef Imports

We open with a fast market check from Joliet and walk through a sharp pullback in cattle and hogs alongside a welcome overnight bounce in grains. We then connect extreme U.S. weather, record beef imports, and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty to the real-world costs producers face as harvest approaches.
• live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs all lower in a broad correction
• drought and flooding risks across key Corn Belt and Plains regions
• corn yield uncertainty and why this season feels unusually volatile
• overnight rally in corn, soybeans, and wheat and what it signals
• record beef imports nearing 6.1 billion pounds and the production gap from nonfed beef declines
• net imports rising as exports soften and why market share is at stake
• Strait of Hormuz restrictions talk and how oil volatility can hit diesel costs into harvest
• jobs report on the calendar and why it can move headlines fast
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Make sure and tune in to Mr. Davis Michelson this afternoon.

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Transcript

Welcome And What’s Ahead

SPEAKER_00 0:11

Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM. Jed Sidwell here, live from Joliet, Illinois. Today we're gonna talk just a bit more about beef imports, and there's just more craziness happening over there in the Strait of Hormuz. We'll dig down deeper into that here in a bit. Big correction down. Live cattle were at 224.93 cents, down a buck and or four and a half bucks. Beater cattle were down 680 at 341

Cattle And Hog Markets Slide

SPEAKER_00 0:59

and a half. Lean hogs were at 81.73, down a dollar and thirty cents. On to our weather discussion for today. And we've been talking a lot about weather, but man, it is just incredibly droughty in areas and some places are completely underwater. And

Extreme Weather Hits Corn Country

SPEAKER_00 1:17

it's weird for it to be this time of year, you know. Normally this is kind of when the weather levels out for the year. We can kind of take our breath. As long as we survive the hail and the tornadoes, we're gonna be fine. And this year, man, it has just been an absolute brutal weather pattern. Far east Iowa, far southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and northern Ohio are all at risk of heavy enough rain here in the kind of nearby forecast for localized flooding. But at the same time, we have an incredible drought burst throughout the southern or southern plains, Kansas, Oklahoma, into Texas, even in my home state of Colorado, incredibly dry. And so this corn yield and what it's gonna look like this year is going to be very interesting to follow. The mid-south and southweast, the southeast, they are the ones looking a little bit more fortunate right now. They are going to see some scattered storms into this weekend and into next when they needed some much needed rain. So that's great to hear from them. We saw an overnight rally in grains last night, and we love it when we pop on that little graphic there. Sep corn right now, as I'm recording this live, is at 442 and a half.

Overnight Strength In Grains

SPEAKER_00 2:39

Sep beans are at 1163, and CC wheat is at 637.5. Good to see an overnight bounce there like that. On to the livestock market discussion. We've been talking about it quite a bit here recently, but total U.S. beef imports, and I figured I would break it down just a little

Record Beef Imports And Why

SPEAKER_00 3:00

more analytically with some stats that Mr. Mike Sands set in sent in our morning newsletter. Record beef imports are heading towards 6.1 billion pounds. That's over an 11% year-over-year increase. And they're filling the gap left behind by nearly a 30% decline in US nonfed beef production since 2022. So those would be coal cows if you're paying attention. While beef exports slipped to their nearest smallest since 2015, pushing net imports to a record 3.75 billion pounds. We have to increase our U.S. beef production, otherwise, we're going to lose our share in this market. That's just the thing. We do a great job at what we do do, but we need to continue to push it to a larger scale to keep up with our outside competitors. This headline caught my eye this morning on CNBC. Trade the news had a little bit on it as well. Oil kind of saw a bit of an uprise, not a ton, overnight, as Iran's draft plan sees U.S.

Strait Of Hormuz And Fuel Risk

SPEAKER_00 4:07

and Israel banned from the Strait of Hormuz, and that's not good to hear. Here's the headline. Worries over oil supply disruptions continue to linger after Iran has published a restrictive draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz. According to this apparent draft plan published by Iran, the country would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transit in the strait. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he thinks the war will end pretty soon. Kind of contradictory things there. Obviously, we're kind of at a worldwide shortage right now in terms of oil production, and that's kind of keeping the price where it is. But then when we throw in events like this, we're going to see volatility. It will be very interesting going into harvest season from an agricultural standpoint. If you don't have your fuel contracted already or did it at a lower price, or maybe you got it locked in at a higher one, unfortunately, it will be interesting to see what goes on in harvests as fuel just continues to be more and more expensive. On the economic calendar for today, about 15 minutes after I'm recording this, probably around the time it's going to go out, the jobs report is coming at 7.30 a.m. And I'm sure that'll hit most headlines.

Jobs Report And Sign-Off

SPEAKER_00 5:25

That's all I have for you today. Thank you for following us on our social medias. I've been saying that the past couple episodes, and uh, we've seen an increase of growth there, and we're happy to have you on board. Make sure and tune in to Mr. Davis Michelson this afternoon. He's gonna have on the one and only Jim Wiesmeyer. They're gonna talk about a lot of things that Jim's got on his mind. He posted an article yesterday about Rollins kind of, you know, maybe crying wolf a little bit about this whole screwworm situation. And I personally I hope they dig into that just a little bit more. That's all I have for you today. I'm so glad that you watched with us this morning. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media. We're a financial channel that loves agriculture. Have a great day.