Ag Squawk Jim Wiesemeyer & Davis Michaelsen

We track a deceptively quiet Friday market and then pull the thread on what could move grains and livestock next, from harvest pressure to the upcoming USDA crop report. We also dig into the policy and logistics stories that can hit farm margins fast, including the farm bill fight over SNAP, diesel supply stress, and shifting export demand. 

• Early trade strength fades into a corn close that signals harvest pressure 
• USDA crop report setup, including acreage revision risk and state-by-state yield impact 
• Senate farm bill setback framed as a delay, not the end, with SNAP as the pivot 
• Why Mitch McConnell’s absence changes the committee math and September strategy 
• MCOOL back in play and what “MCOOL light” could mean for Canada and Mexico 
• China’s surge of U.S. soybean buying and what reserve auctions signal 
• NASS survey participation, farmer distrust, and the idea of paying for data 
• crop insurance premium timing change as cash-flow relief at harvest 
• diesel prices staying elevated due to low distillate stocks and strong exports 
• wheat supported by Russia-Ukraine infrastructure war and Black Sea shipping risk 
• Jones Act waiver basics and why extensions matter more for freight than pump prices 
• ethanol exports rebounding and Mexico stepping up corn purchases 
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Transcript

Friday Market Snapshot And Setup

SPEAKER_06 0:14

The markets today fractionally mixed to moderately meh overall. We'll get you covered on the high points of all of that, but it's Friday. And guess what? I'm gonna whip up some conversation with Mr. Jim Weissmeyer himself. From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Squawk, your pal Davis Michelson here on a Friday afternoon, August 7th. Jim Wiesmeyer is my guest today, the Sultan of Ag Policy, the DC Decipherer himself. There's an awful lot to talk to, and in fact, something that just came out, and we're gonna get to it with him after we discuss the markets really quick. I'd love to direct you to AgBull.com. You can maximize your chance of success with Ag Bull Intel. Take a gander at our premium side gang. Take the markets by the horns. Agbull.com call 855-737 Farm 855-737 FAR, followed by the letter M or Agbol.com today. 25 bucks a month or heck, sign up for a whole year and we'll just give away two months. $250 for an entire year. We'll get to the actual closes and settlements here in just a moment, but let's talk about how the markets acted today at the tail of the tape. Corn, soybeans, and wheat worked mildly higher in early trade as cattle and hog futures struggled for every point to the upside. Rounding into the lunch hour, nearby feeder cattle were higher, but back months were under moderate pressure. Fed cattle were lower across the board. Lean hogs were mostly higher at lunchtime. Before we browse the actual settlements here, let me mention plus 500. Special thanks to plus 500. As I've said before, we here at Ag Bull use plus 500 T4 software every single day for real-time quotes and a host of other functions. And you should too. Plus 500, that's plus 500. And my plus 500 quote board right now has December corn at 462 even. That's unchanged on the day. Over to the soybeans, your November contract, 1176 and a quarter, down one and one half cents on the day. Soybean meal was lower, oil was higher. Over to the winter wheat contracts, a pretty decent day here. December Chicago wheat at 658 and a quarter up seven and three quarters. Your KC December wheat 7.30 and a half up 13 cents. And let's go to the livestock. Guillermo, have you got the livestock? Have you got the graphic there for the livestock? Let's begin with the uh Fed cattle. I'm going to the October. We were mixed in the Fed cattle today. The October contract was up 35 cents to 25.27 and one half. October feeder cattle, 334.92 and a half. That one's up 297.5. Pretty decent day in the feeders. And then over to the lean hogs higher as well. The October contract at 82.22 and a half, up an even 50 cents on the day. Tommy Grassoffi, never far from where the camera lies. Let's bring him in really quick. He wanted to talk about the uh corn market just a little bit. I thought he might want to talk about the move in wheat, but uh Tommy Grasafi,

Harvest Pressure And USDA Rumors

SPEAKER_06 3:38

the 17th sexiest man known in the universe, here to talk about corn for us. As soon as Guillermo can bring him up here on the screen. Hey, buddy, you doing okay? Let's go ahead and turn on Tommy's microphone.

SPEAKER_02 3:49

Oh, there he is. Hi, everyone. Hey Jim. Hey Davis. Got him. You know what? I I gotta put myself full screen because look at this. I got the city of New York behind me today. Hey, real quick, everyone. Can you play New York, New York on the piano?

SPEAKER_05 4:04

I really can. I'll do it later. Okay.

SPEAKER_02 4:07

Real quick, everyone. Grains, they had a nice morning and nice afternoon, but we're coming in to harvest. It is August 7th. And next Wednesday, we have a big USDA crop report. Rumor on the street is maybe just maybe the big bad USDA adds a few more corn acres. Only you, good American farmer, would know that. And it'll be your fault. You planted them. So just letting you know, today we sent a text alert out. Hey, corn's up. USDA reports next week. Harvest pressure is going to start. They're starting to harvest in the Delta. I have a friend who owns a grain elevator down there called Delta Grain. They're posting pictures of trucks coming in. Big uh shout out to Frank Brumfield and the whole Brumfield uh boy still.

unknown 4:48

Woo!

SPEAKER_02 4:48

Shout out. But nonetheless, disappointing close in corn. Both December 26 corn closed at the low, palms out. There is a red side of the ticket. And D'27 corn closed lower on the day, down two. And we the markets kind of shut down at 115, but we stay open for five more minutes. We call that the uh post-close, or when we had trading pits, we call it the curb trading on the curb. Another story for another day, but the curb trade traded a half cent below settlement. So we, if you looked at the markets early this morning, you're like, corn's up five, it's gonna be okay. Oh no, corn's down one, and it closed a half cent below settlement. And with that, harvest pressure has started and it's gonna happen no matter what. You cannot stop the harvest pressure in the next few weeks. We're gonna have the most bushels we're gonna have all year. That's it for me. Any questions, comments?

SPEAKER_06 5:39

I got a question. You got any chocolate pudding in the house? You keep any around? Remember when they had the chocolate pudding, uh, the little pudding cups in the the tin cups? And like if you kind of dig your finger in there to try to get the rest of it, you'd cut your finger on the side of it.

SPEAKER_02 5:52

Yeah, but that whole thing with the pudding and Bill Cosby, I just, you know, he scared me. He's scared.

SPEAKER_06 5:57

Why do you gotta bring that into pudding? I'm having a good time eating pudding today on a Friday, and you gotta bring this up.

SPEAKER_02 6:02

Yeah, I think I've overextended my welcome.

SPEAKER_03 6:05

Um we're copying everybody. Thanks for being here. Eggbull.com is where you can get more from Tommy.

SPEAKER_02 6:11

The 17th sexiest man alive.

SPEAKER_03 6:13

That's him. That's him, everybody. Like, he doesn't have any chocolate pudding and whipped cream around the house.

SPEAKER_06 6:18

With that, let me play Jim Weissmeyer's theme music because I got to bring him in. Bro, you've got some fresh stuff out hot off the presses here. Yeah, Jim Weissmeyer, Weesmeyers perspective here from the Ag Bull crew. So glad to have you on the show

Farm Bill Stalls Over SNAP

SPEAKER_06 6:30

again today. I love your friends, brother. I love it so much. Okay. As you were a little bit late getting on for our taping here today. We're clear out at 2.30 already. We were getting a little bit.

SPEAKER_00 6:44

I had to file some comments from uh Senate AG Chairman uh John Bolsman. Uh yeah, basically, my headline was he said the farm bill defeat this week in the Senate Act Committee is a delay, not the end. But he's gonna keep that markup alive for September, and he insists on a bipartisan uh vote when they return in mid-September to that issue. And that means uh they're gonna have to probably compromise a little bit more.

SPEAKER_06 7:12

That's interesting, and I guess I I'm wondering where those compromises come from because I'm reading the the piece that you put out. It said Bozeman's comments make equally clear that SNAP, not farm policy, now determines whether Farm Bill 2.0 lives or dies. Says Farm Bill 2.0 is wounded, excuse me, but still procedurally alive. Can you clarify that? Because I thought Snap was sort of the hinge pin that was holding this whole thing together or apart, as the case may be.

SPEAKER_00 7:40

It is, but he thinks he he thinks this uh five-week recess that the Senate's gonna have should work to his advantage. The reason when these lawmakers go back home, they're gonna hear a lot of angst from their voters saying, you know, if you don't take this farm bill, we go back to the original one big beautiful bill, okay? And there's no one year, there's not even a year delay. So he thinks the Democrats are gonna probably rethink their position. And I don't think he has much more wiggle room from the White House on this one. And and I'll give him a shout out. He went to the White House, Davis, earlier. Yes, yep. He went to the White House and he got them to agree to a one-year delay of what the Democrats don't like about the OB3 bill that was signed last July the 4th. And I think the Democrats were surprised he was willing to give them that. And from what I can understand, the Democrats just moved the goalpost. Then that's when they started asking for two-year uh waiver of the language that's in the one big beautiful bill. And that's where I don't that the White House just would not give on that one. So the states, when when the senators go back to their to their states, and hopefully they do, they're gonna hear from their constituents saying, you know, one year is better than the underlying bill, so let's go for it. Yeah, that's what I think he's coming from.

SPEAKER_06 9:20

You brought up an issue that is exactly why I uh I should never run for for office in any any capacity, because if I was to go home for a break, I wouldn't hear anything from the people. My door would be locked, my shades would be pulled, and that'd be the end of that. You know, maybe maybe I'm unfit for office, Jim. Is that fair?

SPEAKER_00 9:39

There's very few lawmakers that do that. Yeah, yeah. I don't think you'd be extended in office very long.

SPEAKER_06 9:46

Not much of a glad hander, my friend. No, no, no. Well, okay, and I wonder if we would even be having this conversation if Mitch McConnell hadn't been in play. Apparently, there was an announcement that Mitch McConnell is now out of the hospital, he's rehabbing at home. There were some questions about what's the story with this guy. Has any weird question? Has anyone seen him?

SPEAKER_00 10:11

Is there video or there's been updated photographs that have been confirmed it's him? So as we always say, alive and kicking. Okay, he he's 84. He was released from a rehabilitation facility Thursday, uh, ironically, the day of the Senate Ag Committee markup, and he's returned home after an eight-week medical ordeal. That was uh basis of June 14th, uh fall with a brief loss of consciousness, then pneumonia during his hospital stay, uh fracture, stroke, and a heart attack were not ruled out, from what I can understand. He'll do intensive physical therapy regimen at home through the August recess. And he says, on the vice of his doctors, he's not going to come back to the Senate until mid-September. The Senate comes back September the 8th, but he said he's gonna maintain an intensive regimen of physical therapy, uh, therapy from home during what they call the state work period, the five weeks. And he again, he's not planning to return to the Senate until at least mid-September after the chamber reconvenes September the 8th, but I think he'll make it back in mid-September.

SPEAKER_06 11:23

Well, we we definitely wish him the best. You hate to see that, but it does raise the question in my mind, and I don't even know, Jim, is his seat up for grabs in the upcoming midterm election?

SPEAKER_00 11:34

It is, it is, yes. And and he he's not going to run for uh office again. And it looks like a relatively safe seat. So either way, if they had a replacement short term, it would be a Republican. But the reason why his vote was so important is the Senate AG Committee voted down the underlying bill, which we call Farm Bill 2.0, 10 to 11. The the reason why the 10 is the Republicans, they needed they needed 12. The reason is it uh that not only was Mitch McConnell not there, Tommy Tupperville, senator from Alabama, who was there earlier during the markup session, was not there for the final vote. So uh so once he comes back, of course, Tupperville will be there and they'll have the 12 votes, at least 12 votes, to get it out of the committee and onto the floor. But Klobuchar, she's the ranking member on the Senate AG Committee, Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota, she held her caucus to a two-year demand. And so that's why the SNAP agreement amendment fell 11 to 12. You always put the yes vote first, 11 to 12. And so once that was uh defeated uh her her amendment for a two-year demand, yeah. That was uh then then you knew it was over because the Democrats were not gonna go along for the ride under the underlying bill. So McConnell's absence was the arithmetic that decided it. He he could he could vote proxy on amendments, but not the final bill. A lot of people didn't understand that initially. So that's why you had the the 12 votes against the Democratic uh uh amendment. So okay, yeah.

SPEAKER_06 13:37

And just circling back, Bozeman seems fairly confident, says the farm bill defeat is a delay, not the end. What is he he hanging his hat on there as far as success goes?

SPEAKER_00 13:49

He thinks, number one, they'll he'll get McConnell back, so they'll have the votes out of the committee. And he thinks two, when the Democrats go back to their states, they're gonna hear from their constituents and they may modify their vote. I don't think he's got much more wiggle room on that snap or food stamp uh uh area. So they're gonna have to come around. What he maybe he can give them something else, but it's gonna be hard to get on on the on the food stamp side. So he recessed the markup. Now that means he banked the amendment record. What they had done prior to that, it kept the bill alive for a September revote. And as he keeps saying, it's not going to go away. The maneuver is effectively a bet that McConnell shows up in mid-September, and his recovery schedule is now the Farmville schedule. That's basically what it is.

SPEAKER_06 14:44

All right. Well, let's let's keep it a little bit farmy here. Another one of your headlines. And if you haven't caught a show that I do with Weesmeyer, I'd like to just walk him back through some of the headlines that he posted throughout the week

McConnell Absence And Vote Math

SPEAKER_06 14:57

and just throw them at him and and see what uh see what comes out. One of those, and I don't know if these two items are related or not, Jim. I might be I might be connecting strings that don't exist here, but I'm sure that you you're aware of the skyrocketing beef imports into this nation alongside of a

MCOOL Returns With Real Momentum

SPEAKER_06 15:17

real slowdown in beef exports. And now we've got mandatory country of origin labeling coming back up to the surface. You had a headline on it, I believe it was just yesterday. M Cool back in the news.

SPEAKER_00 15:30

It is, and the committee uh on Thursday adopted Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Republican from South Dakota, his MCOL amendment, 17 to 6. Now, all the Democrats voted for it, and many of the of the Republicans. Now, that means that uh it wasn't in the House bill, so it's gonna be if it gets to a House Senate conference, it's gonna have to be a negotiated item. But I think with that size of a vote, Davis, we could see M-Cool in the final bill. However, I I I'm hearing what I call M-Cool light. I think the House is gonna modify the language. I say that because under the language in the Senate bill that Thun pushed, the U.S. trade rep must find a WTO compliant reinstatement within 180 days, setting and that sets up a conference fight with the label-free house bill. So the again, the language in the Senate bill projects that no matter what USTR and USDA finds out, it triggers MCOL within a year. So that's what I think is gonna be modified. But let's just bottom line it. MCOL has risen again, and I think some farm, if we do get a final bill yet this calendar year, I think it's gonna be near the end of the year if we get it, it'll it'll be in there. But I think the house is gonna modify it in some language that's probably gonna tell the Congress to try to negotiate with Canada and Mexico relative to MCOL language. Because if you'll recall, the last time that it was tried out, Canada took us to the WTO and threatened retaliation, and then we backed off of that. But this time's different because you've got more people on Capitol Hill in favor of it, and two, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has come out in favor of M-Cool. So these are changing times here. So again, that that's uh M-Cool. And I know Canada and Mexico have a lot of problems with it, but I think that again, as I said, in conference, since it wasn't in the House bill, the House is going to have some say on this, saying, I think we're gonna modify this to let's deal with our good North American customers, Mexico and Canada. And if they agree, it's almost like the automobile talks in the USMCA agreement, where it's rules of origin that we're dealing with in cars from both Canada and especially Mexico, that we're looking at rules of origin. That can be the same thing with uh beef relative to Canada, especially in Mexico, because look at the northern states that rely on a lot of animals coming in to feed from Canada. So MCOOL would change that. Not saying that that they wouldn't get them in, but the labeling uh could really upset uh the whole market, North American market complex. So again, the the target is mCool has arisen again. This amendment vote of 17 to 6 clearly showed that it has momentum, and I think that it it could well be in the final bill.

SPEAKER_06 19:08

I'll have a conversation with Bill Bullard. I was actually speaking with him just real briefly today from our CAF later on next week. I believe that's Thursday. I imagine he'll have a few thoughts on M Cool to share with us. But uh definitely would we be having this conversation if beef imports weren't where they were? If we had a big, solid, robust herd, and what are we gonna do with the cattle?

SPEAKER_00 19:32

Yeah, it would have lightened the focus, but when Thune pushed it, the majority leaders, and I think that really that really helped out. And as I said, the administration, especially with Brooke Rollins's position, it gave it some ammo up on the Senate side. So I think they still would have pushed it, and I think Bullard will tell you the same thing.

SPEAKER_06 19:54

Yeah, yeah. All right. Let's go on to you know, we're we're speaking about imports. Let's talk about exports. China continues to buy U.S. soybeans. I like the sound of this one a lot.

SPEAKER_00 20:05

Yeah, there were three big strikes in under a week, roughly uh 1 million metric tons uh Friday to the weekend. Sino

China Soybean Buying Spree

SPEAKER_00 20:12

grain bought uh 14 to 16 cargoes and 13 more cargoes Monday, and then up to 15 more Wednesday. USD flash sales confirmed 488,000 metric tons Monday, 132,000 metric tons Tuesday, and 122,000 metric tons uh Friday, all for 2627. Estimated new crop buying is now near 5.6 to 5.9 million tons. Now, China's completed only about 16 to 20 percent of its 25 million tons per year, a commitment for 26 calendar 26. That's 900, just a little close to 920 million bushels for perspective. The 13 tariff we have on keeps the private crushers in China sideline. So this remains a state buying by Sino Grain and Kafco.

SPEAKER_06 21:07

Now you and I did talk last week about uh China offering some up for auction, some of these reserves up for auction, perhaps to make some space, sweeping out the bins. It wouldn't have happened this quickly, though, would it?

SPEAKER_00 21:20

That's a good bridge. Yes, they're they're doing it, and they're offering another 516,000 metric tons on August 12th. Ironically, the date of the USDA crop report. Yeah, and now it's to make storage room for incoming U.S. cargoes. You know, the reserve sales are inventory rotation, so it's not bearish demand news. There they want to clean the bins, if you will, and and replenish that over the next uh between now and I think the end of the year with very good quality. They love U.S. soybeans, the quality it stores better than Brazilian beans. So I think this is a good sign they're auction, and they're and then you look at the percent of what they accept in the auction and things like that. That that's important from a market perspective. But Beijing is clear. Sending the signal that they're serious about meeting that 20 mil 25 million metric ton commitment of purchases of U.S. soybeans for calendar 2026.

SPEAKER_06 22:23

You called it. You called it. I like the sound of all of that. You mentioned the August 12 report coming up Wednesday next week, I do believe. We've got some dueling private corn crop estimates. Some veteran analysts are stepping in looking at the individual state numbers. Tommy mentioned it just earlier on in the in the program here today.

USDA Report Wild Cards On Acres

SPEAKER_06 22:43

Could see some increases in soybean acres and some even bigger increases in corn acreage from the last survey on that. Your thoughts?

SPEAKER_00 22:51

Yeah, here's where we are. The battle of the industry titans, uh, the consultants. Uh Stone X went big. They have 184.8 bushels per acre for corn and 16.16 billion bushel crop. That's 160 million above USDA's July trend based 16 billion bushels, and is second only to uh last year's record. Iowa, they had at an eye-popping 218 million bushels, Davis, and Illinois at 212 versus Kansas at 138 and North Dakota at 143. Their soybean yield average yield is 53 bushels, the same as USDA's uh non-survey forecast, and 4.47 billion bushels crop that's ratifies that would ratify a record crop. Now, the trade average sits at 182.4 bushels per acre for corn. Remember, that's against Stone X's 184.8. The range low is 180.5 for corn. The best quota I got came from a veteran, and a veteran means they've been in the industry a long time. His comment to me was if it's between 180 for corn yield and 185, that's basically where the trade is working. The big one on this report is the state by state estimates, because of course you know, Davis, that affects a draw from the elevators, the exporters, and the bases. So these these state numbers are going to be very important. Now you mentioned, Tommy mentioned acre, potential acreage revisions. The trade yield guesses are sit close to USDA's non-survey assumptions. We've already said that. But NAS folds in farm service agency certified acres. And you'll recall last August that process cut soybean area to 80.9 million while corn rose at the time to 97.3 million acres. Now, just for perspective, I always like perspective. 1 million corn acres is 182 million bushels. Well, that's worth more than a two-bushel national yield change. 1 million soybean acres is 53 million bushels. That's about 17% of the very snub 310 million bushel soybean carryout. So what the mar what analysts are telling me is watch soybeans. They think soybean acreage could gain more than corn from the June figures. A large meaning a larger than expected soybean acreage increase would be the clearest, very surprised risk in Wednesday's report. That's what my panel of survey told me for this report. There's disagreement. So there's your wild card right there.

unknown 26:30

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 26:31

Right there.

SPEAKER_06 26:31

You know, I I spoke with uh Ben Renche earlier on this week. You know Ben, don't you? Yeah. Oh, yes. Heck of a good guy. And he was talking about this task force that he's on to kind of update NAS, to simplify things, the what is a one farmer, one file kind of a concept. But but also he talked about the mistrust that that farmers have for the surveys and the fact that farmers really aren't filling out surveys like they once did. Uh down at around the what the low 30% or something like that is where they're they're running late.

SPEAKER_00 27:02

30 high 30s now. 38, I think, was the last USDA report.

SPEAKER_06 27:07

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 27:09

Where it used to be a lot higher.

SPEAKER_06 27:11

Like 80 something.

SPEAKER_00 27:12

It used to be high.

SPEAKER_06 27:13

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What's your thought on all of that?

SPEAKER_00 27:16

They're eventually, I think, gonna have to pay farmers for the data. Uh that's what the farmers tell me. Pay up, it's our data.

SPEAKER_05 27:22

Interesting.

SPEAKER_00 27:23

If you want it, pay for it. Now, they're not going to do that right away, but they're eventually, I think they're gonna have to come around to some way, I don't know, uh some create some system where they get some type of an incentive because it takes a while to fill those surveys out, whether it's in print and eventually, hopefully electronic and maybe less of them. I think they're they're increasing the number of uh surveys they send out so they don't have to rely so much on a certain percentage response rate. So there are things that they can do. But this fall, we're going to have a report card on NAS, and uh that's what Secretary Rollins promised at the Farm Fest this week in Minnesota. And uh USD is serious on this one. I give them credit. They've heard enough from farmers legitimately who have questions about about uh you know some of the surveys, the the time, what the the lateness they get it in the snail mail, and then they have to turn it around sometimes in just a little time and then mail them back, can you imagine? And they don't get to USDA in time. So there's a host of problems that have to be dealt with. But I have confidence that USDA will eventually find ways if they work enough with farmers to get that response rate up and number two, use other technologies that's available right now to lessen the need for these high percentage response rates.

SPEAKER_06 28:51

You mentioned Secretary Brooke Rollins at Minnesota Farm Fest, and I'm skipping ahead in my notes just a little bit, but she made a uh pretty significant announcement about the crop insurance program, giving producers an additional

NASS Trust Gap And Data Incentives

SPEAKER_06 29:03

60 days to pay crop insurance premiums before interest begins to accrue. How helpful is this for farmers?

SPEAKER_00 29:12

Well, it depends on how much your premium is. Cash flow relief, it's not debt relief, it's cash flow relief. And delaying a hundred thousand dollar premium 60 days saves about thirteen hundred dollars at 18 at 8% money. So the bigger benefit is avoiding a forced grain sale or operating line squeeze at harvest. That's another you know aspect of this, Davis. USDA also restored the optional 5% prevented planning buy-up and launched a data listing tour, as we've already said. So this was a farmer-friendly announcement that the secretary made at FarmFest. But Congress is eventually going to have to deal with this issue on crop insurance premiums because it was set up years ago by Congress, and it was actually the crop insurance industry offered to change when farmers paid those premiums in order to save some money. That's when the ag committees were were forced to come up with savings at the time. And so that's a that that's what we're living through that. And I think eventually Congress is going to probably legislate a different time frame along the lines that Rollins has already announced that pay it later rather than sooner.

SPEAKER_06 30:31

Okay, very good. You know, speaking of Ben Renchi, there's a there's a connection, viewers. If you saw my program with Ben Renchi, I started out talking about Shady Grove, which is the ground that my my granddad purchased and began to farm when he got out of the Marine Corps after World War II. The there's there's Renchies all over the place there. And Ben Renchi still believes he may be farming some of the ground that my granddad started on. Of course, we don't own it anymore. But my dad watched the program. Sometimes he watches the show. He he apparently he can stand it. I don't know. I he's he's a glutton for punishment. I'm curious if he's gotten this far into this show, Jim. And here's how we're gonna find out. He and I were talking, he was telling Shady Grove stories on the phone just the other day. Old farming stories, four years old, driving a John Deere B type stuff, out, you know, putting up electric fence for the cattle and the corn stubble, things like this. And I said, Dad, you should be on my show, that'd be really interesting just to talk about this kind of stuff, you know. And we don't always have to be all about you know super heavy stuff. He said, Oh no, and then a few days later, I was mentioning it to to Tommy, and Tommy's like, You should have your dad on the show, Jim. If he would agree to be on the show, would would you come on as well?

SPEAKER_00 31:49

Absolutely, it would be a hoot. Your father and I had more than a little fun during the years and good work too. But we had set we we would drive in the early days of Pro Farmer in the 80s to seminars and vans, and at the time we couldn't tell the stories that we had in the van, but I'll just leave this out for for him to tell. But we had we called her Missy uh Davis's uh wife now.

SPEAKER_03 32:18

Oh Scott Davis, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 32:19

Scott Davis's wife. I always called her Missy. She's nice, oh, she's very nice, and your father, I'll just I'm not gonna give it all up, but let's just say when he could tell stories, you thought they were the truth. He would just put details, and it was about uh him having two nipples on one side. I'll just leave it there.

SPEAKER_02 32:42

Come on, is this even legal? Davis, what's your daddy's name? What's your father's name?

SPEAKER_03 32:48

No wonder he doesn't want to be on. I'm sorry, Dad. I'm sorry.

SPEAKER_00 32:53

And this is believed it. She believed it.

SPEAKER_02 32:57

Davis, what's your father's name? Ron.

SPEAKER_03 33:01

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 33:02

Mr. Ron Davis, if you don't get your ass on the Ag Bowl podcast, you will never see your son again. That's a promise. I'm gonna get some well.

SPEAKER_00 33:18

I guess it's still the same, but I'm telling you, it's you it's it's hard to dis you know differentiate.

SPEAKER_06 33:24

Well, maybe that could be our Agbol injustice of the day is we we block out our screens and he says a line and then I say the same line, and then you have to figure out sounds like a good game.

SPEAKER_00 33:38

We could kind of do that the day that he's on, and have Tommy and I guess with the placards of who wins after series of four.

SPEAKER_06 33:47

Well, dad, if you made it this far, give me a call. Give me a call. All right, let's move on, Jim. Uh something a little less jocular to discuss here in Guillermo. I've got yeah, you've got that that graphic right there. Diesel Geddon. You didn't call it diesel Geddin. No, I had a great talk and I mentioned it yesterday on my program when I was talking about diesel prices, farm diesel prices, refining at 96.5

Diesel Crunch Heading Into Harvest

SPEAKER_06 34:12

percent of capacity, domestic dis supplies dwindling, Russian refineries on fire. It's an absolute mess. This is our our you can see the graphic gang. Total distill of fuel oil stocks, the gray area there is the five-year average range. And look at the little blue line. That's where we are today. Clear out the bottom, clear out the bottom. Jim, talk to us about diesel, please.

SPEAKER_00 34:33

They're elevated and they're sticky, as we say. Uh, retail diesel hit five dollars and let's call it 35 cents on August the third. That's up 155 on the year. Midwest was 526, and the Trump era diesel now averages $4.09. That's a cent above the Biden era average. So there's a political overtones here. Falling crude isn't going to fix it quickly if it does fall, because why you mentioned it? The distillate stocks are around 12% below the five-year average, and refiners are already at 96 to 97% utilization capacity. And we got into a discussion, Davis and I did earlier. That's basically 100%. You're not gonna, there's a few instances where you could actually go above 100%, but uh, you have plant downtime for repairs, things like that. So we're already gearing it up as fast as we can. So it's the dock, as we say, not the refinery that's draining supply. The exports hit a record 1.884 billion barrels a day, and stocks fell to those 300 3.5, I should say, million barrels in a week that they should usually seasonal build. So again, what we we're usually building inventory, but we're decreasing. We got harvest coming up, we're rolling into harvest, and the Gulf Coast alone drained 5.2 million barrels. Why? Exports. So the farmers have to compete. U.S. farmers, and we've discussed this before, are having to compete with higher bidders around the world. So a cushion this thin, Davis, leaves uh harvest season diesel and bases vulnerable to any hiccup or hurricanes, etc. So, yeah, this is going to be an increasing story, increasingly important story, uh, story in the next few weeks. Uh California is over seven dollars for diesel, by the way.

SPEAKER_06 36:39

Oof. Yeah. Currently, just because we're we're mentioning crude oil here, I've got the West Texas Intermediate, uh, which will be below Brent, but the September down 37 cents today, presently, the October 25 cents lower, hovering right around 75, 76 bucks. And I wonder, Jim, I'm gonna I'm gonna tie this into this next story here. Wheat prices are gaining as the Russia-Ukraine war intensifies into a duel of infrastructure. You wrote refineries on one side, grain ports and vessels on the other.

Wheat Gains As Black Sea Risks Grow

SPEAKER_06 37:12

How much impact because when you're talking about the Gulf losing, well, losing, sending out exports of US diesel. We're we're talking about Europe, we're talking about Turkey, we're talking about that sort of region, which, as I understand it, would normally have been supplied by Russia. Are these these refinery bombings, uh, these attacks on refineries? Are they in is that what's impacting our exports? And not yet. Not yet.

SPEAKER_00 37:41

Not yet, but in Europe they are, and that's what I think is getting into the marketplace finally. The the US traders wants to see proof that some business is coming into the United States. I think it's going to take a few more weeks because actually our wheat export inspections are down relative to a year ago. So the market wants proof, they're starting to get it in Europe because Europe's starting to benefit. The Ukraine hit the refineries, about 194 refinery strikes in this year. 24 of Russia's 34 large plants have been hit, and they've driven crude runs to around 3.9 million barrels a day in Russia. That's the lowest since 2005, forcing gasoline, jet, and diesel export bans in Russia and near nationwide rationing in Russia of all places. Each new refinery strike now moves product markets more than crude. In that perspective, this is why I write at least twice a week. I've I've got a special report on the Ukraine-Russia fisticups uh in their port battle, the uh Black Sea battles. And Russia is answering the firepower at the ports. Odessa and Danube terminals are being pounded. 136 uh merchant vessels have been attacked, around 90% of ship owners have suspended Ukrainian calls. So grain loading is halted in some of these uh ports, and Russia's July grain shipments fell almost 40 percent. This is why it's having more of a market impact in Europe first. EU now is the initial benefactor. There's a corridor that normally moves around 60 million tons of wheat and 30 million tons of corn a year. That's is disconnecting from the world market. You think this is not important? It's huge. Importers are paying a reliability premium now for German and French wheat, and wheat futures are carrying a war risk in Europe premium into the peak export window. Again, the US, we don't need much business to really uh uh further bull for to really reduce the carryover enough in the US to really start a bull market run, in my judgment. That's what I'm hearing from analysts, not me, what I'm hearing from seasoned analysts. So I think it's coming. I I just think that the Europe is this this Russia-Ukraine war infrastructure war, if you will, is so severe that eventually it's going to really bull the wheat market in the US basis. My talks with analysts later rather than sooner, but it's coming.

SPEAKER_06 40:29

Yeah, yeah. And the implications for for diesel can't be can't be much better for I mean, if if if the export market is buying gallons, barrels, boatloads away from the American farmer, prices are gonna stay high, aren't they? I reported yesterday at an average of four dollars thirty-two cents between Iowa and Illinois, according to according to USGA. And that was that was late last week that number came out. I I can't imagine a scenario where it's lower.

SPEAKER_00 41:01

No, and as I said, if we get any other hiccups, hurricanes or deliveries problems and things like that, the uh China's aspect on their diesel, Russia, etc. Yeah, you're you've got some explosive moves to the upside that still could happen, you know, and and making it practical.

SPEAKER_06 41:21

Diesel did farm diesel anyway, gave a little dip about a month ago, a little over a month ago, came down really nice and hard, and we're headed back up. Now, I I don't know that we get back there. I hope people filled at that point. I I really do. I don't know how much of that was going on because it fell fast and it fell hard. And you know, there was a thought, well, we're you know, the Iran thing, okay. We we fixed it. But how many, you know, how many times have we heard since then they're gonna come to the table, they're begging me for a deal, they're gonna make a deal. I'm telling you, everybody says so, and there's no deal, and it just gets worse.

SPEAKER_00 41:56

Look at look at earlier this week. Oh, don't get me going on Iran and the U.S. I don't believe either country, it's the fog of war. Secretary Besson, Scott Besson said earlier this week, oh, within the next day or two, we're going to have an agreement on the Strait of Harmuz. Well, it's Friday and still no agreement. The bottom line, we have not been able to trust Iran for 47 years. Why is the White House trusting them now? Number two, who are they talking to? And number three, the military uh the and the other aspects of Iran, they they're they don't want to give an inch on this, and they're viewing the Strait of Harmuz as their leverage right now. So I again I don't I I just believe they they're gonna have to come after Iran with no holes barred eventually because you can't trust them.

SPEAKER_06 42:46

Yeah. Did I fall asleep and have a dream yesterday in my chair? I thought that I saw something that said Iran said that it will make a deal with Oman, but one of the contingencies is the U.S. can't use the Strait of Horror Moose.

SPEAKER_00 43:00

U.S. and Israel. Israel doesn't use it anyway, and the U.S. really doesn't use it all that much, to tell you the truth. But it affects the strait affects us because of what we've been just going through. It's so important for fertilizer shipments to the world and diesel and all that other stuff. So it's a logistical nightmare there. So yeah, it's uh the the strait was open, it's international waters before the February 28th war started. And so I think I think that Trump cannot give any, it should remain international waterway. And if he gives anything at all to Iran, that's not a good signal, as far as I'm concerned, because uh we had it open before the war, and there shouldn't be any constraints on it for any so-called uh agreement. So we're gonna see. But it's far from settled, far from settled.

SPEAKER_06 43:53

Just a couple of more, and and then we'll we'll move on. But uh let's let's go here and then we'll end on a high note after that. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday another temporary suspension of the Jones Act is quite likely. How much of that is related to what we've been talking here with diesel exports, with with

Jones Act Waivers And Freight Reality

SPEAKER_06 44:11

Russian problems with Iran, with shipping problems, how much of this is related to the Jones Act. And actually, first, Jim, take us to Weesmire 101. Help us get our heads around what the Jones Act is and and why you decided that you needed to write about it this week.

SPEAKER_00 44:26

Well, the Jones Act, it it's a requirement that you have to use intra intra intra shipments of things within the United States on U.S. flag vessels, which happens to be in most cases either hard to get or number two, a lot more expensive than other ships. Okay. But due to the constraints that we've had in fertilizer supply and demand and prices and diesel and all that other stuff, energy secretary wright uh initially put a uh a suspension on on the Jones Act. Now it's it's it's gonna expire August the 16th. So the last time they extended it, I think for uh 90 days. This one it could be possibly narrower. I wrote 30 to 60 days. That's a tighter geographic commodity coverage, and that would get us through harvest, by the way. And and so the the freight resilience, it's it's freight resilience, not pump relief, because it's been used nearly 200 times, the the Jones Act suspension through July. I did the an accounting of that. The waiver says saves only about 6.6 cents a gallon on a Gulf to the West Coast gasoline run run. Now that's real for shippers, but around 1% at retail. So, but it keeps fertilizer covered matters for fall ammonia movements and hurricane season contingency. So it's needed. I I think they will announce it. The the unknown is for how many days because I think it probably will be under a 90-day suspension because they want to signal a little progress on on the the need for it. That's that's just politics to me.

SPEAKER_06 46:11

Yeah, yeah. Okay, let's let's do one more. I've got one more here. A little piece of good news.

SPEAKER_00 46:17

Ethanol, we we gotta point out the bright side on ethanol.

SPEAKER_06 46:20

That's the one. I want to go straight there. Then we'll go to the weather, we'll have some fun, and then we'll go home because it's because it's Friday. But ethanol

Ethanol Export Strength And Mexico Corn

SPEAKER_06 46:26

exports bounce back, keep 2026 on track for a third straight record. Give me some good news on ethanol, Jim.

SPEAKER_00 46:34

Well, up 46% on the week and 72% on the year, and they match one of 2026's strongest readings. And this was the ster third straight record is within reach now. January to May exports are running 12.5% ahead of last year's record pace, so it's tracking toward around 2.5 mil billion billion gallons of ethanol exports. Canada takes roughly one of every three barrels of ethanol exports. The swing factor is the policy churn, as I call it, in Brazil and India. Now, India just I had a story today. They're they're they're wanting to put ethanol out of this coming hope for trade agreement with the United States because they have their own domestic policy. So that that's another one to watch out for. But bottom line, the shining star has been exports of U.S. ethanol, and let's hope it continues.

SPEAKER_06 47:34

Absolutely. Absolutely. Well, Jim, you and Tom are going to get together on on Sunday again and do uh do your deep dive, aren't you?

SPEAKER_00 47:42

Absolutely. And I'll I'll have a few things as far as another postmortem on the border reopen phase, border reopening of uh the of the US Mexico border. I did a major special report on that. I'll have some inside uh skullduggery things that I found out that that I'll just signal that you'll have to listen on Sunday for that one. Very revealing.

SPEAKER_06 48:06

I wonder if somebody knows what skullduggery is.

SPEAKER_00 48:08

Oh, he'll look it up now. He'll look it up now, okay? And then we're also gonna talk about another important thing that we don't have time for today, but FDA and ultra-processed foods. Now they put out uh white paper, not a rule, but uh, this is going to be very important for the whole food industry and of course agriculture. So we're gonna have a little chat about that, and we're also gonna say the good side, we didn't mention Mexico because USDA reported today the sale of uh call it just a little over 256,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico. Soon we're gonna see the Mexican soft drink industry announce even larger U.S. corn purchases by Mexico because the early Mexican corn purchase program usually kicks into gear around this time. So we're gonna see continued even larger daily purchases of U.S. corn by Mexico. Wow. So watch for that one.

SPEAKER_06 49:07

Wow. Well, we are ending on some good news, right? We are, we are. I love it. I love every second of it. What's the weather look like out your window out there in DC today?

SPEAKER_00 49:16

We've been getting much needed rain and a lot of it, and my flowers are simply beautiful. But we've had, yeah, we're a lot like Florida. Well,

Weather Notes And Friday Fun Close

SPEAKER_00 49:25

DC was built on a swamp, so it's not just swamp people. Uh we get a lot of humidity, much like when I lived in the St. Louis area. It wasn't any change for me. I was I was ready for high humidity, but we're getting more rain than we usually get in in August.

SPEAKER_06 49:44

Okay, very good. Well, the National Weather Service says scattered showers and storms are expected across portions of the central and eastern United States through the end of the week. Meanwhile, dangerous heat will intensify. I feel like they're just cutting and pasting that phrase in like the last three weeks. Dangerous heat will intensify across the desert southwest and intermountain west. Hot, dry weather and increasing winds will allow elevated wildfire conditions to return to the northern intermountain west, where air quality issues persist from ongoing fires. All right, with that, Jim, let's move on to some items of mild interest. This first one here, apparently, according to popculemadness.com, it's Professional Speakers Day. I know you do an awful lot of speaking. Do you uh you're gonna do anything special for Professional Speakers Day today?

SPEAKER_00 50:33

I'm gonna I'm gonna shut up in favor of all those other speakers. I'm saving my voice for what I'm on with Tommy's Sunday. You know, I don't have a graveled voice with you, but with Tommy, I get a little dry, so I'm not quite sure why that is.

SPEAKER_06 50:48

Well, we appreciate you bringing the good stuff, Fred.

SPEAKER_00 50:52

I hope you're gonna say what day this is, other day this is.

SPEAKER_06 50:56

Well, why don't you bring it to us?

SPEAKER_00 50:57

You're it's International Beer Day, International Beer Day. I have an ag angle on anything. Finally, we have a commodity market where liquidation is bullish. Okay. Okay, you know, we've talked today about corn has ethanol, soybeans have biodiesel, barley has happy hour. Okay, the only crop report today that matters, cold, plentiful, and about five percent alcohol.

SPEAKER_06 51:26

Ooh, I'm I'm about ready. We've been at this a little bit. I'm I'm about ready here. I'm I'm gonna be honest. In 1882, the famous Hatfield and McCoy feud began at the uh Kentucky West Virginia border. 1955, Wayne Knight, American actor. Newman from Seinfeld. It is absolutely Newman. And you know, while I've got my piano out here, I just thought maybe what we would do. I did this, uh I did this someone earlier this week. I don't recall what it was. It was a Ricky Nelson. Oh, it was Ben Renchi, back to Ben Renchi again. I want to talk to you about uh August 7th, 1954, Jim. I'm gonna play you a song, and I'm pretty sure that you can get the title, but I'm wondering if you can get the artist. This song hit number one. August 7th, 1954, 1954. Fourth grade. 1954. And it goes, okay, I'm gonna try this. I'm probably gonna butcher the melody. We'll you'll know it when I get toward the end.

SPEAKER_04 52:37

Life could be a dream if only all my precious plans would come true. If you would let me spend my whole life loving you, life would be a dream, sweetheart.

SPEAKER_06 52:50

Here comes the part you probably know. Sing along if you want to.

SPEAKER_04 52:53

Sha boom, shaboom. Yadada, shaboom, shaboom. Yadada, shaboom, shab boom. Life could be a dream, sweetheart.

SPEAKER_00 53:08

Gosh, that's an oldie but goody, but I don't know who it was.

SPEAKER_03 53:12

Yeah, would you take a guess? You could name the song, right? You got the title, I would assume. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 53:17

It wasn't Ben Crosby, was it?

SPEAKER_06 53:19

It was not Ben Crosby. I don't know if they were one hit wonders, but I'd never heard of anything else. The crew cuts.

SPEAKER_00 53:25

Crew cuts, yeah. I think they had more than a few. The crew cuts more than a few, yeah. But you asked me to sing, really a brief story. When I was younger and we had music classes in grade school, we had to go up, and Harold Wentz was his name. He played the piano, he was the music and art director. Yeah, and we had to say the Doray Mies up and down the scale. And when I was done, he looked at me, he looked at me in aghast and said, Oh my god, I've never had anyone miss every note. So something like this, yes, and and and and he saw the look on my face and apologized. And from then on, I've never sang in public, but in showers on an opera singer.

SPEAKER_06 54:14

Oh, okay. I believe it. I I don't know that I ever need to find that out firsthand. I'll just take your look for it. Jim Wiesmeyer, you've been extremely generous with your time and with your way. Thanks for letting me just throw your headlines right back at you. Okay. You do such a great job of keeping up on it. Bro, you you never stop, you never slow down. You're always reporting, you're always investigating, and and we're all better for it. I just want to say how much we appreciate it. You and Tommy Back you and Tommy will have your episode ready some sometime Sunday evening. Am I right?

SPEAKER_00 54:44

Sunday morning, sometimes, Sunday evenings, late Sunday afternoon, rarely in the evening, but sometime Sunday.

SPEAKER_06 54:51

Very good. Jim Weiss, my everybody. Hey, let me uh send you over to Trade in the News really quick before I let you go. We use Trade the News to keep us on top of the news that moves the markets. Trade the news, news you can use. That's trade the news. And if you haven't had a chance, go to AgBull.com and check out all the lavish premium services we've got for you. Visit AgBull.com or call 855-737 Farm. Jed Sidwell will set you up bright and early Monday morning, and then I'll have a conversation with Randy Martinson from Martinson Ag Monday afternoon. Have a safe and happy weekend. Have a little shada da this weekend on me, everybody. We'll see you next week for more Ag Squawk.