AG Squawk AM 8/24/2026 with Tommy Grisafi

We react to the ProFarmer Crop Tour numbers and what they signal for corn rationing and soybean pricing as harvest approaches. We also connect the dots between interest rates, geopolitics, and real-world farm decisions, from equipment loans to export risk. 
• ProFarmer Crop Tour takeaways, bullish corn vs softer soybeans 
• Why lower corn yield estimates force demand rationing 
• How interest rates hit housing, equipment, and farm financing 
• Geopolitical risk and the Strait of Hormuz as a market input 
• Trade friction with Canada and broader policy uncertainty 
• Cattle market headwinds and anger over increased beef imports 
• China visit watch and why it matters for seasonal soybean pricing 
• Where we get quotes and breaking news during the trading day 
If you're looking for a relationship, if you're looking for information, I will tell you futures and options aren't for everybody, but information is. And we have a nice information package for $25 a month, $250 annually. If that's something that interests you, hop on over there. Also, Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer is switching to a subscription-based model. If you're not on the list, you need to go to the Agbo website and say, hey, I want to be on Jim's list. I want to get the coupon for when he goes for a pay-for-service. 

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Transcript

Fast Morning Market Setup

SPEAKER_01 0:12

Good morning, everybody. Tom Gersafi, Ag Bull Media, Ag Bull Trading. Well, we're going to do a quick one today because there's a lot of things going on. But I do need to tell you there's some important, important things that happened. ProFarmer Crop Tour came out, the markets reacted to it. Corn's up big last night. Beans are going down. There's all types of things happening with Iran, with Russia, with weather, all that more. And this morning's Ag Squat. Well, good morning, everybody.

Why Macro News Hits Farmers

SPEAKER_01 0:46

Tom Grasafi, AgBill Media AgBill Trading, coming to you from Valparaiso, Indiana. Back from a trip from North Dakota. The ticker's moving. Some things are up, some things are down. How's it affect you in agriculture? All that and more. First, I want to bring your attention to Jim Wiesmeyer and I recorded, recorded Wiesmeyer's perspectives on Saturday. We broke it all down for you. Pro Farmer Crop Tour. What's going on with the Treasury? They're going to put the hurt on Iran. What's going on with the Fed? Kevin Warsh going to Jackson Hill. Not only are we an agriculture channel, but we're an agriculture channel that we we're an agriculture channel that loves financing. Can talk about it because interest rates are on the move. And when interest rates are on the move, that affects so many things. The housing market, buying a new tractor, buying equipment, financing anything. So the hits don't keep stopping. We did not solve anything in Iran versus U.S. We did not uh get much solved with the Strait of Hermuz. We don't have a farm bill. We're fighting with Canada. That came out. Breaking news, breaking news late on Friday at midnight. We didn't get a deal done with Canada. I don't know what's going on there. Now you see a Mexican flag there. We're getting along better with them. But uh our friends to the north, 2% of our podcast listeners. I don't know why, but uh we're not all getting along. We'll see what happens with that more. So many things going on. We had Cattle on Feed Report on Friday. We're still trying to get a farm build. There's so many things going on. Let's first get into the markets that we use plus 500, plus 500 quotes and software. This is how we view the markets. Whether you just need a quote or whether you need a trading platform, we like trust plus 500. How do we get news? We use trade the news. Trade the news is an audio squawk service. They're pumping out news and information to us all day, all night. Second I get off this, I'll dial into trade the news and it's on speaker here in the old basement. Okay, what's going on?

ProFarmer Numbers: Corn Up, Beans Down

SPEAKER_01 2:39

Pro Farmer Crop Tour blasting numbers out there. And they were bullish, bullish corn. Slightly bearish beans, but how bullish corn? If these numbers are true in corn, corn's got some work to do on the rationing side. If these numbers go even lower in this, and we have this much pent-up demand, all eyes on harvest this year, South American weather, and everything moving forward. When you have too much of something, you can just buy it when you need it. It's like going to the store. When's the store ever run out of bread? Like they throw out more bread than they sell at stores. But when there's a storm like what we had here in northern Indiana, there's a lot of crazy things that happen. And all of a sudden you go to the store and they have no milk, no bread, no nothing. And it's interesting. So everyone just wants what they

Scarcity And Demand: The Bread Analogy

SPEAKER_01 3:32

want when they want. You know what this guy wanted? This guy wanted to really piss off the American rancher. He said, you know what? We're going to bring a ton of ground beef in. I can tell you, I do not know one organization

Beef Imports And Rancher Backlash

SPEAKER_01 3:46

or anyone involved in beef who said that was a great idea. But yet I'm not president, nor will I ever be. But I do get a vote, and I'm telling you, President Trump lost some votes from uh people there. People who are diehard Republicans said who are actually politicians said that what's going on here. It was just it's just wild that the the price of grains are going up, inflation's going up, the cattlemen and rancher have so much headwinds, and then we're gonna import you know a lot more beef, and that's gonna leave a mark. All right, with that, all eyes on this guy as we're running around the world making everyone mad.

China Trip Watch And Soybean Timing

SPEAKER_01 4:25

Will G still come to the United States here in September? That's very important to uh know. If you catch wind that he's not coming, you're gonna see a big sell-off in soybeans seasonally. This is a time of year to have these prices this time of year seasonally, this is a great time to be selling soybeans. Seasonally, uh, this is a very unseasonal rally we're having here in corn. The fact we're rallying this much coming in the harvest, but as all the big shots told you we had a 185 corn yield and it's closer to 170, markets got some work to do. So be careful who you listen to. When they're wrong, they don't write you a check. Speaking of listening, we hope you catch us every morning and every afternoon, ag squawk a.m. ag squawk p.m. Those shows are free and they should stay free for a while, but sometimes things change, right? But definitely check out Jed in the morning, ag squawk a.m. and then ag squawk p.m. A quick show. I have

Corn Yield Reality Check

SPEAKER_01 5:22

to get back to the phones, but I will tell you this. Uh, if you're looking for a relationship, if you're looking for information, I will tell you futures and options aren't for everybody, but information is. And we have a nice information package for $25 a month, $250 annually. If that's something that interests you, hop on over there. Also, Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer switching to uh subscription based. If you're not on the list, you need to go to the Agbo website and say, hey, I want to be on Jim's list. I I want to get the coupon for when he goes for a pay for service. In the next few months, all Jim's content will be behind the paywall. And Jim Wiesmeyer, his content, the video, Wiesmeyer's perspective, and all his emails he puts out daily will start to be texted

How To Follow And Subscribe

SPEAKER_01 6:03

and be behind a username and password here on the AgBill platform. So welcome to AgBull Jim. We love having you, and we love that all of you tune in every day to watch us and to listen to us. And hopefully you pick up a tidbit here or there. I do challenge you if you didn't see it, head over to YouTube, Apple, Spotify, X, somewhere. Check out that We Smeyers Perspective. We record it Saturday so we can get it out before the markets open Sunday. With that, everyone have a great day.