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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
AG Bull
AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Fertilizer UPDATE!
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We track a sudden surge in wheat and strength across corn and soybeans, then pressure-test what that kind of rally means for risk, hedging, and real farm decisions. We also dig into retail fertilizer and diesel trends so you can line up fall input plans without getting fooled by a single good week.
• Wheat futures reprice on Black Sea escalation risk and export disruption
• Corn and soybeans rally alongside late-season heat and dryness concerns
• Ethanol production, stocks, and energy inventories shaping demand tone
• Fund length, volatility, and why rallies can still snap back
• Covering the gap above crop insurance with cash sales and puts
• Retail fertilizer pricing by product, anhydrous versus UAN versus urea
• Phosphate strength, potash context, and what the fertilizer price index signals
• Farm diesel and propane heading into harvest and drying season
• Premium updates including a short Jim Wiesmeyer conversation on beef imports
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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
Episode Open And Market Snapshot
SPEAKER_01Busy, busy day at Ag Bull today. Corn, beans, and wheat, all double digits higher, everybody. Livestock's made a good effort, but ultimately wound up mixed, but mostly higher. We're gonna cover the move in wheat futures, quite the eye popper there. And then I'll go full on Han Solo on retail fertilizer prices. From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson. Please just punch to have you here along August 26th. It's Wednesday. It seems like it's been a whole week already of days, and uh it's Wednesday. It's Wednesday. But glad you're here along with us. I'm gonna take the show solo. We've covered some pretty heavy stuff so far this week, and there's more to come. Tomorrow I've got, and I know I just had him last Thursday, but I'm gonna have him back. Bill Bullard from RCAF USA back tomorrow. We had more to talk about and some developments since then, and I want to get his take on what's going on. And then speaking of from the news, I got Sean Haney, the Alberta Breeze, on Friday afternoon to talk about relations with Canada and to make sure that at least he and I are still friends. I'm pretty sure we are. He's a good guy. But uh, we got a big week coming up. I was gonna sort of present today as we're taking taking a breath, taking a bit of a pause. I wanted to talk about retail fertilizer markets, but there's so much going on. Let me begin here.
Premium Scoop And Beef Import Rumors
SPEAKER_01Premium subscribers. Premium subscribers. Now, if if you haven't taken your marketing, your future by the horns, visit agbull.com for that, agbull intel, agbull.com 855-737 Farm makes the telephone ring, 855-737 Farm or Agbull.com. The reason I bring it up, and I want to start doing more of this kind of a thing, but Wiesmeyer put out a headline that made me go. And so I got Wiesmeyer on real quick just to say, hey, buddy, I got some questions about this article that you wrote about beef coming on coming in from Brazil and the Trump administration's proposal for beef imports, maybe trying to get ahead of the rumor mill. I really just wanted to shine a light on the facts and where Jim's head was at on that. It's a short one. I used the the official Ag Bull timer, and we came in right at 10 or so minutes. So it's it's a short one, but that's for premium subscribers only. You can expect more of this sort of a thing. And it kind of depends on the story, not just every story, but when I see one that Jim puts out, I definitely want to try and get him on the phone. And he also has to be available. Very, very busy man doing his thing out there in DC, keeping track of stuff for us. And so we're glad to have him today, and we're pleased to present that to our premium subscribers. Let's get into the news today because I'm also going to bring in Tommy Grassoffi to talk about this enormoid move in the wheat futures today. And you probably already have an idea why it happened, but I want to get his thoughts and just see what else he noticed in the markets before we get into retail fertilizer
Ethanol Output And Energy Inventories
SPEAKER_01prices. Before all of that, the ethanol numbers came out. Ethanol production week ended August 21 up 2.1%, exceeding analyst expectations. Meanwhile, ethanol stocks in the report week very nearly exceeded the high end of the range of expectations, adding 0.3% to the national supply now at 25.2 million barrels. I don't know if I've said it before, but I would I would like to have that number, which this week is 25.2 million. I'd like to see that like with a 19 on the front of it. If we could get that sub-20, that would be great. But the production number was up 2.1%, and the supply only gained 0.3%. So I guess technically moving in the right direction there, we'll take it. We'll take it. It's what we've got anyway. Some other energy items: crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all fell sharply in the weekended August 21, with gasoline stocks off more than 400% from the week prior. Pre-report expectations were for crude supplies to gain slightly. And although the expectation was for ongoing declines in distillate supplies, the data show a much deeper dip than was anticipated. And I think I've got a chart on that there too. Excuse me. Yeah, you can see there. The gasoline down 468.6% on the week, while the uh the distillates just ahead of a heavy, heavy diesel demand season down only 45.6%. I can't believe that's an only, but but only there. And looks like uh crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma actually were up on an expected uh decline. So still tough over there in the energies, and we'll get into retail diesel prices. It made a move in the charts that I don't much care for. There's nothing really we can do about it, but I'll uh I'll show you the chart here in just a
Grain And Livestock Settlements
SPEAKER_01little bit. Let's go to the tail of the tape corn and soybeans higher from the gide up today. But Chicago wheat led early session gains quickly, firming a dime. Cattle and hog futures were off to a higher start as well, with feeder futures leading the herd higher. Moving on to uh lunchtime, rounding into the lunch hour, cattle had flipped into negative territory, although hogs held on to most of what was gained through morning trade. The grains were inspired with winter wheat up more than 35 cents, Minneapolis futures up around 20 cents at midday. That's around lunchtime. Corn garnered double digit gains, soybeans up almost 20 cents. This as crude looked on quietly, up around 75 to 85 cents, with the November contract trading at 81 bucks and change. That was right at noon central. Let me look over to the settlements here, but first I'd love to mention plus 500. Plus 500 T4 Software is where my squad and I all are privy to up to the minute real-time quotes, a host of other features. Plus 500 T4 software gets the job done for us. Plus 500, that's plus 500 December corn futures, according to my chart here. Settled out 536 and a half. That's up 13 cents on the day. Novi beans up 28 and one quarter cents, 12.66. Meal was higher. Soybean oil was mixed with the nearby's under some pressure and deferred contracts beginning with the January 27 contract, uh, up just slightly, very slightly there. I'm still gonna call it mixed, though. And over to your winter wheats, December Chicago wheat, 45 cents higher, 748 and a quarter. December KC wheat up 38 cents on the day. 8.08 and three quarters, hung an eight handle on the December KC wheat. We're gonna talk with Tommy Grossafi in a moment, but first the livestock's mixed action in the feeder futures. If we look to the October, we're up 92.5 at 314.25, just ahead of that. The September down 27.5 cents at 319 even. Live cattle, October, 210.77 and one half at settlement. That's down 17 and 1.5 cents. But let's hop out to the D's. 212.57.5 is up 45 cents on the day. And the lean hogs, gosh, love them. Lean hogs up across the board here. The October contract, 45 cents higher. 80.90. The December contract, 62 and a half higher at 70.97 and one half.
Why Wheat Futures Exploded Today
SPEAKER_01With that, let's get some desperately needed perspective on the wheat market move and the grains in general for Mr. Tommy Grassofi. Tommy, what how are you doing, buddy? It's been a day, it's been a couple of days.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'm smiling, and I hope farmers are smiling. I mean, these are the opportunities you wish for, but yeah, the intensity and the strength of what's going on is incredible. I do want to talk a little bit about last night. Last night grains opened up lower, which is common on a big up day or any up move because there's hedging that hits the elevator system. But the move last night, there was really no major news. Jim put out a few articles, but all of a sudden corn went from down two to up five, and wheat went from down two or three to up 12, 13, and then beans started to creep up, and we're like, what's going on? It's just a normal Tuesday night, right? And then today it just intensified. I do want to give the biggest shout-out ever to Trade the News. Uh Trade the News put it out on their service several times, and there's been all types of head fakes where people say Russia and Ukraine are in toxin, wheat sells off 30, but it's getting too real now, Davis, with the amount of damage that Russia's doing to Ukraine ports and to Ukraine ships. If I'm understanding it right, and I'm not there, nor do we have boots in the ground. But if I'm reading headlines correctly, pretty much Ukraine, Ukraine exporting grains coming to about a standstill. And so when you take Russia being busy in their own front, they've start importing oil and everything else going on. Our short crop of wheat here in the United States and just the overall insecurity in the world. Holy cow, when wheat started to go up. The headline came out border trade wheat was up maybe 22, 23.
SPEAKER_01You know what? Yeah. Let me let me push pause right there because I did pull a couple of sentences from Weesmeier about this. He wrote, quote, Russia is considering a significant escalation of missile attacks on Kiev. I'm sticking with Kiev. At some point, everybody started saying Kyiv, I'm saying Kiev. Another Ukrainian infrastructure after the Kremlin concluded that negotiations to end the war have effectively reached a dead end, a development that would deepen an already serious threat to Black Sea grain trade. I feel like this is what you're hinting at, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and there was one other line that other news services said Kiev and other cities. And uh so many times over the last since 2022, we're going on over four years of this war and hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and that's probably the most important thing to focus on, is that we're further away. So when he said and other cities, and then right after that headline, about a half hour later, it said Russia had struck more ports in Ukraine and ships, and the the you know, that's the tail of the tape. The market had a job to do. Interesting though, Davis, is that soybeans, November soybeans, as we're just a few weeks from harvest and down south in the Delta, they're already harvesting in uh southern states, which would be a phenomenal crop. To put soybeans up 30 cents on the last few days of August, that ties it into weather.
Hot Dry Forecast And Soybean Risk
SPEAKER_00Our own very own weatherman, Mr. Craig Solberg, put out uh middays. The GFS has been running extremely abnormally, it's throwing out numbers that we don't believe to be true. But even if you take away five to ten degrees of these exaggerated GFS models, blend it with the Euro model and everything else, it looks to weather finishing weather looks to be extremely hot and dry as we finish August and come into September. And a lot of people who were tossing, oh, the pro farmer this, pro farmer that will finish strong. Well, it could actually be the opposite that the pro farmer numbers are not only right, but if they're even close to right, the market has some work to do. So you throw in the pemp pepped up demand that we have, all the expansion of using grain domestically, a hog farmer, a friend of ours, a mutual friend of shows. Chad Layman called the R Day. He said, You guys gotta stop talking about corn going up, us hog guys gotta buy some. And the hog guys are extremely used to backing the truck up. And I do have a back the truck up sound I can send you that I bought before, but it yeah, that's it right there. The hog person or a cattle person acts just like an elevator in the sense that they want to accumulate the most grain when we have the most. So, in review, we probably didn't grow 16 billion bushels of corn this year. We're probably closer to 15 billion. We know we had a terrible wheat crop, and we know there's problems in the world. You had what's going on in France and everything else. There is one tale, though, I do want to caution
Funds, Volatility, And Crowd Psychology
SPEAKER_00you. So many people were bearish when corn was lower, and now they're incredibly, incredibly bullish. And I couldn't imagine how long the funds are right now in corn. We have to be approaching over 400,000. And that gets into that danger zone where you're telling me the funds are close to a record long a few weeks before harvest. That's chemistry. The gas is there, whether someone throws a match on it or not. Could they add to that length? Yes. Could we go higher? Yes. But in staying fair and balanced, 540 corn has the potential to go right back down to five or maybe lower. And it does have the potential to go up. But when corn was 440, and if someone called and said, What do you think? I the the questions were the you know, the comments were, hey, we're in the third inning of the growing season, give yourself a little time. There's carry in the market. Let's see how this crop finishes up, right? And you have crop insurance and all those sort of things. But now that we're above crop insurance, the farmer, you, the farmer who I need to call 1855-737 Farm, you have a fiduciary duty to cover that gap. Because we're sorry, what kind of duty was that? A fiduciary fiduciary? Yeah, that yeah, and it's like he means fiduciary. Fiduciary. That one too. And don't ask me to spell it.
SPEAKER_01If that's the if that's the R Y.
SPEAKER_00I gotcha the day. I tell you what, this is a cover your ass moment because as a CEO or the president or the person responsible for marketing at your farm, 540 can't be laughed at. So we have prices that are now profitable, assuming you have the bushels. The market's rallying because it doesn't think there's as many bushels out there, and there's a major escalation, we'll say, of what's going on in the world. So we are at a, as I told my wife Gina, she said, Oh, work was really busy Friday and it was busy Monday, but you think that's it? I'm like, no, it we're setting the stage, we're setting the table to invite a lot of people over, and people some people have to buy, some people have to sell.
Covering The Insurance Gap With Hedges
SPEAKER_00We, as folks who help people in farmer marketing, are trying to help people sell and retain ownership or buy a put or do something to protect the crop. But turn turn your farmer marketing hat around, Davis, and put your end user hat. If Mr. Davis Michelson is in charge of procurement, don't ask me to spell that either. If you're in charge of procurement and you have to accumulate six to eight million bushels of corn for an ethanol company, those margins have changed tremendously from 440 corn to 540 corn. So the very product that the market got addicted to being used to at affordable levels, corn, is now at starting to be uncomfortable levels. And you throw what wheat did in the mix. The truth is we don't help as many people with wheat as we do corn and soybeans, but we are at phenomenal levels. 435 callant dies corn, real close to the 1270 level, touched in no beans. I want to say we're getting in the eights in KC wheat and the upper 750s in border trade. Minneapolis is the slacker, by the way. Minneapolis wheat is trading way under KC, and there's different reasons for that. We could do a special about that.
SPEAKER_01Well, speaking of specials, you know, I've heard it said more often than the inverse or the obverse if you'd like. Don't get more bearish as the market goes down. You're suggesting we should also take that as the market moves in the other way. Don't get more bullish as the market goes up. You know, maybe sometime for the premium side, you and I should just sit down and and chew on that together. Would you be interested in something like that?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. And with plus 500 software, we can pop up the matrix of all the corn numbers. I think we hit, I just gonna throw it out there and Jed could check my math. I think we hit 525 today in D's 27. But when you look at all the D's D 26, D's 27, D's 28, D's 29, they're probably all around that 525 level. So for the people who have the $6 corn hat on, that's fine. I can give you, we could do a whole premium subscription on how we can get to $6 corn. I can get you to $7 corn, but a lot of things have to happen. Uh, whether in South America, continued demand. The job of the market right now is to get the corn market high enough to start to make people feel uncomfortable and not buy corn. So, what's an alternative to corn? That would maybe be wheat or something else or soybean meal. But all things have gone up. Soybean meal is going up, wheat's exploding, DDGs will be going higher. So you need to feed if you're going to convert grain into protein into animals, which we still have good demand, you're gonna need to feed them something. And all those products went up, whether all the reasons, but when I look at the Twitter, now we call it X. When you look at X, there's a lot of people really excited. And those were all people who didn't have a plan and the market bailed them out. And I'm happy for them. I wouldn't recommend it, but it happened. I have a dear friend and client who today who just sold over 125,000 bushels of old crop corn. And I said, I guess you were just smart enough to know it was going to rain 14 inches of rain in Indiana, get windy, and a war start. He said, No, sometimes you just get lucky. That's the price of being stupid, right? So don't confuse a busy market with that we all got smarter. As the price of grain goes up, grain traders start to feel like they're smart. Nobody was feeling smart when D's corn traded 444 or 440. Now that we trade 540, take a deep breath, sit down, manage the risk because there is risk to manage. We are big gap between federal crop insurance and where we are today. And I'd really like to see that gov that gap covered through cash sales or put floor or something. And of course, after watching this video, call your crop insurance agent, talk to the numbers, talk to them about the coverage you have. Uh, we'll get an agent on here next week. I have a few names for you, Davis, and that'll probably be more on the premium side. But whoever you trust to do your insurance, talk them, talk to them about hey, I have above average bushels, I have below average bushels. What are my choices here? What's the risk? I have clients who've had to buy back contracts. So I talked to a really big trader yesterday. I tried to explain to him things are really bad, North Dakota. And he said, uh, you know, they don't matter. Okay. You know, he can say that, but this is the interesting thing about being a big trader or being arrogant, or we'll call it having a cavalier attitude, right? This is a very smart individual. I asked him last time he'd ever been to the state of North Dakota, and his answer was never. And I said, I will buy your plane ticket. I really think it would be worth it. It could save you a lot of money to go see what's going on. And what's interesting about these big traders who they're all over there. I talked, I talked to a friend and I said, of all the people you know who's bullish, and he said, Everyone, this was yesterday, everyone he talks to is bearish on the big professional trading side based on projected yields in soybeans, and that he he was okay with corn being at 520, but he thought soybeans were way overvalued. If he thought soybeans were overvalued yesterday, they are now 30 cents higher. That's $1,500 per one lot short that needs to be sent in if you are a spec short or a hedge. Sure, if you're a hedger, you made it on the cash and you're you know you have to send money in on the short. But the the math and the matrix of what's going on, there are tens of billions of dollars fluctuating in and out of these markets. Not to mention, you're going to talk about fertilizer, what happened with crude oil the last few days and everything else. We have by far one of the most dynamic markets I've ever seen. And it it would be irresponsible of us to not explain both sides of the risk management right now. And each person, Davis, someone says new client called yesterday. Yes, sir. Oh, hold on though. I do I do want to I had a point.
SPEAKER_01How close are you? Are you close?
SPEAKER_00You're close. Uh a new client called yesterday. He said, What are you telling people to do? I said, Don't worry about the people. Tell me about your acres, your bushels, your bins, what you have forward sold. Tell me what's keeping you up at night. That's the risk I can help you manage. If you're out of position, you need to get back in position. I understand my time's up, and it's been a pleasure to be here.
SPEAKER_01But Tommy Gersafi, P-R-O-C-U-R-E-M-E-N-T, by the way. Procurement. I didn't even Google it. I'm just going to assume that's going to assume that's right. Tommy, we appreciate everything you do. We appreciate we you and I need to be having some of these conversations. And uh more often, I guess.
SPEAKER_00Can I tell you a secret? Sure. The AgBull Bluetooth speakers should be in pretty soon. So anyone who subscribes to the premium content, yeah. Subscribe to premium. And when you subscribe to premium, say, I want my Ag Bull Bluetooth speaker, and we'll get those out there. I only ordered 50, so the first uh 50 will go. But uh I I I want to say something to you to compliment you. I had a client call yesterday and he said he's listened to almost every one of your ag squawks, and he's listened to every one of Weissmeyer's perspectives. And if you're not on Weissmeyer's list, get on there. You can get a hold of us on the contact page. That's real simple. Just say, I want to be on Jim Wiesmeyer's email because Jim is moving over to the premium side. Jim Wiesmeyer is now officially part of Ag Bull Media, and he is going to be a pay for pay for service. Jim is putting out too good of a sometimes freeze too expensive, Jim and I agreed. And so he, if he's going to work this hard at 78 years old, he just wants to get paid a little, Davis. That's all from me.
SPEAKER_01Tommy Gristaffi, we appreciate your perspective there. There's much more that Tommy could say and would say, but uh he's got to go. His his phone may ring here at any moment, too. He's been very busy lately. But he he brings up a good point. The the multiple services that we are that we're hoping to provide to subscribers, and we're we're still kind of building this thing, gang, and we're trying to be responsive to what our our subscribers like and what they seem to find useful.
Viewer Shout-Outs And Program Updates
SPEAKER_01Just a little bit of house cleaning. I've got an announcement here. Got it. Speaking of Wiesmeer, here he is. Rollins breaks ground on Blue Point as CHS OCP phosphate details emerge. I'm gonna have those details for you in just a moment. But first, yesterday, I'd Scott the Cow Guy, Scott Shelody, on the afternoon program. I don't know if you've gotten a chance to see it or not, but uh a lot of people have seen it, and you know, we waded into some some deep waters for me. I uh Scott's a great guy, a great thinker, and he was the perfect dude to have that conversation with, and I appreciated his time very much. We're gonna have him on again. But uh I I urged you, beloved viewers, to post comments, and I'm here on YouTube, and there are a couple of shout-outs I need to give. I've got Matthew, Going Broke Farms 3. Well, I hope that's not the case. Going Broke Farms 3. I've got Wade and I've got at T Tan with some numbers behind it. But hey, we appreciate the encouragement. We enjoy doing these programs, and it and it really does help us kind of dial in on what we're doing here, both on the premium side and you know, just on my show here. So a shout out to you all for understanding the assignment and coming into the the comments on the YouTube video with Scott the
New Fertilizer Plants, Same Import Need
SPEAKER_01Cow Guy. All right, as promised, on to the fertilizers. This shouldn't take too long. We'll see. We'll see. I want to start with this just out. Louisiana draws $4 billion of nitrogen and a $450 million phosphate plant on the same day. Both reshore manufacturing, but neither ends import dependence. I'm not going to give away the whole farm here, but Weesmeyer writes quote, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins broke ground Wednesday, that's today, on CF Industries' Blue Point Ammonia Project in Louisiana, and appeared the same day at the site of the proposed CHS OCP North America Phosphate Venture about 50 miles downriver. Two projects, two nutrients, and between them roughly $4.5 billion of fertilizer manufacturing aimed at the same stretch of the Mississippi River. He goes on, both projects are real, neither ends U.S. import dependence, and in each case, the reason sits in the ownership or the feedstock rather than in the headline. That fresh off the presses from Weesmeyer just a few moments ago.
Retail Nitrogen Prices: Anhydrous Vs UAN
SPEAKER_01I do want to bring to you retail fertilizer pricing as I bring up the correct window here. There we go. And I see we've got anhydrosammonia chambered and ready to discuss here on the week. Now, this is for the weekended 821, August 21, 2000. Yes, 26. I got the right week here. We had Iowa anhydrosammonia at $1,000 and uh $1,025. Illinois at $8.90 per short ton for an average of $957.50. Anhydrosammonia between Iowa and Illinois, according to USDA's numbers, down $56.65 from the previous week. Let's look over and keep we'll stick with the nitrogens. Here's UAN 28%, down $18.89. Still overpriced $511.67. Now you know I like to compare these nutrients here. The nitrogen makes it the easiest, and UAN is well overpriced compared to anhydrous. But UAN 32% says hold my beer. Overpriced even further at $610.63 per short ton. Iowa's at $616.25 and Illinois at $6.05 according to USDA's latest report. Once again, at a Midwest average of $610.63. Urea's down on the week, down $16.75 at $7.22 per short ton. Again, compared to anhydris on a nitrogen one-to-one basis, well overpriced. Right in the middle, sort of, sort of, I guess, of the uh the UANs, but still UAN 28%, 32%, urea, all expensive compared to night uh anhydris, which is already itself rather expensive. Historically, I think we were not quite 200 bucks cheaper the same week last year on anhydris. We were we were in the seven handle somewhere. I looked at the number and didn't write it down. But uh it's it's still expensive, gang. Let's go over to phosphates.
Phosphates, Potash, And The Index
SPEAKER_01We were just talking about phosphate production in Louisiana there. I've got DAP up, DAP up 3444 on the week at 917.22. And MAP, Iowa, I've got at 931 a short ton. Illinois, I've got at 935 per short ton for an average betwixt the two of 933. MAP is up 10 bucks, 14.5 cents on the week. The support for phosphates continues, and it was phosphates that set us off on a higher course to begin with, and it still continues. You can see the chart over here. The dotted line is my three-year average, and the the solid skinny lines are a year ago. The the thicker solid lines are where we are today, beginning at the first of the year, moving in the wrong direction on the phosphates. Let's talk about potash, gentle potash up 35 cents on the over the period, Iowa at 492, Illinois at 499.58, all told up 35 cents over the report period, 495.79 on your potash. Looky there, shooting straight down the middle of the three-year average and uh the year-ago price. I guess if I uh let me if I run my comparison, potash is cheap compared to anhydras, but if anhydris is expensive, is potash really inexpensive? By comparison, it certainly is. All of these are rather expensive, and it nets us a fertilizer price index which has declined almost 50 points down 49.936 points on the week to a figure of ten seventy forty-six. That's designed to compare one-to-one with one acre of expected new crop corn revenue based on December corn futures. At the time of these numbers, at the time these numbers were released, that number, expected new crop revenue per acre, was at $869.40. We'll call it $870. So as I said last time we talked about fertilizers, we're sort of moving in the right direction. Your fertilizer price index is coming down. Your your price, your expected new crop revenue per acre is coming up. But as you can see by the chart there, the gap is very wide. In light blue, we've got the fertilizer price index, and in the purple down below is your expected new crop corn revenue.
Farm Diesel Rebounds Before Harvest
SPEAKER_01Let's talk about diesel fuel, ruby red. We talked about the declines once again. You know what? We'll do propane first. Here's propane, buck fifty-two, up seven cents. It's propane buy-in season, is what it is. And I think the summer refill prices have probably already been expressed. And so now we're heading toward toward drying season. We're headed toward a very robust demand season here in harvest coming into fall. And uh now I think we're ready for diesel fuel. I show I don't like this one, but look, look at this chart here. Okay, so we got kind of the same deal. 2024 is in this chart in green year ago, once again with the the purple, and then there we are on 2026, and we thought we were gonna get a break. And it looked fine there for a second early in July, late in June. Nice downdraft, but we've erased all of those declines and actually added some more gains pressing up against five bucks a gallon regionally. In fact, we're at $4.94. If you average the price from Iowa at $4.68 a gallon, and this is farm diesel. This isn't highway diesel, this is farm diesel. USDA puts Iowa at $4.68, Illinois at $5.19, up 62 cents over the report period, which is two weeks, at $4.94 per gallon. Now we've gone through fertilizer prices according to USDA as reported for Iowa and for Illinois. What does it mean if you don't live in Iowa? If you don't farm in Iowa, you don't farm in Illinois. The trend. The trends are similar. Your levels may be different. Anhydris may be one, two hundred bucks cheaper, maybe more expensive, but but I do believe that the trends tend to hold together. And so I think it's it's very valuable, and I understand these these may not match your exact values, and they probably wouldn't match if you called your preferred fertilizer retailer and said, Oh, I need to need to book some phosphate for fall. You know, depending on on bulk and all this sort of stuff. I don't know if I need to give this disclaimer or not, but these prices may not match exactly what you would hear from your preferred retailer. I'm just trying to give you a sense for the trend. And there are parts of these trends that look good. Now, Tommy warned not to get more bullish as the corn market goes up. I'm very encouraged by the decline in our fertilizer price index since our last report and the nice rise in expected new crop corn revenue. This is all great, but you still have got to be careful. This is not the place to get complacent. I'm sure that that you're not, but as as you're thinking about your marketing strategies, your expenditures, your operational needs, you've got to keep in mind, yes, we've seen an improvement in anhydrous ammonia, we've seen an improvement in urea, but phosphates are still higher on the week. Vitamin K potash still higher. So we've got to keep all these things in mind. It's not the kind of news that I want to deliver to you. I would love to tell you that the bottom fell out of all of these items, but that's not going to be the case for a while. And you you need to know that. And if you haven't, you need to get your head around that and market accordingly. All right, moving
Heat And Storms In The Forecast
SPEAKER_01on. I've got uh notes on some other things here. What do we got? Let me scroll down. Ooh, yeah, here we go. Let's move on. It's warm and sunny in uh in Kansas City today. I think we're headed for mid-80s or so. Sunshiny. It's a it's a really nice day. I was out walking the dog a little bit earlier and glad that we'd taken a chance. Oh, he perked up. He perked up. He heard his name. Dog. The National Weather Service says dangerous heat will build across the southwest U.S. through the end of the week with daytime highs of 110 to 115 degrees Fahrenheit. Yikes. Isolated to widely scattered severe thorms. Actually, that 110 to 115 might feel like a cool down to some folks in certain areas. 31, 32 days, I think it was, above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Hang in there, everybody. Hang in there. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern high plains that may break it for you. Great lakes into the Ohio Valley, parts of the Ozarks, the lower Mississippi Valley. That's later on today. Let's get to some items of mild interest.
A Steamboat Proposal And Odd Facts
SPEAKER_01And I bring this one up because it's a very special dedication, very special to me. In 1791, John Fitch was granted a United States patent for the steamboat. Now, that's significant to me because I proposed to my beloved wife out in front of the Steamboat Arabia Museum, right here in outstanding Phantasmal Kansas City. I think we've got a picture of it here. A little story about the steamboat Arabia. On September 5, 1856, the Arabia near Parkville, Missouri, hit a submerged sycamore tree and flooded with water. The upper decks stayed above water. The only casualty was a mule. In 1987, Bob Hawley and his sons Greg and David set out to find the Arabia using old maps and a proton magnetometer to figure out the probable location and finally discovered it a half mile from the modern location of the river. So in about what is that, 1856 to 1987, the Missouri River moved about a half mile, leaving the steamboat Arabia where it was. They had to dig it out from under 45 feet of silt and topsoil. Moving, I think we've got a picture there, don't we? Let's see. I think we yeah, there it is. There's a Steamboat Arabia Museum right in front there. I uh got down on one knee and uh proposed to the love of my life. It was an outstanding day. It was a good day. In 1980, Macaulay Colkin, American actor, was born, who, of course, you know, is famous for his movie quote Ah Thought for the Day. What if houseflies buzz around and land on us because they love us the same way dogs do? Hmm, that makes you think.
Final Takeaways And What’s Next
SPEAKER_01We can catch you up on the markets and all the things you need to know on that side today and every day at Agbol.com. Take your marketing by the horns with AgBull Intel. Visit AgBull.com or give us a call at 855-737 Farm. Thanks to Trade the News for keeping me and my entire squad on top of what's moving the markets. News you can trust, news you can actually use. Trade the news. Uh once again, premium subscribers. There's a uh uh a really great uh I set the timer for nine minutes. A great conversation with Jim Weismeyer lasts about nine, ten minutes about some beef import stuff from Brazil. It may be something that hits hits the mainstream news. I don't know. It's a little subtle. You know, we get a little subtle with our news sometimes over here in the ag world, but it's something that we wanted you to be apprised of. Weissmeyer is a fount of knowledge, a voice in the wilderness, and premium subscribers, head on over to agbold.com. And if you haven't subscribed, please consider doing so. All right. We're uh thanks for being here today. We're finishing out the week. Tomorrow I've got Bill Bullard, and I'll talk about some of the things I spoke with Weismeyer about. Now, on Monday, I spoke with Mike Castle from Stonex, and we talked about the technical end of Trump's proposal on the import of beef, but I'd like to talk about it more from the producer end, from the industry end with Bill Bullard tomorrow. Looking forward to that conversation. And then, you know, a lighter conversation on Friday with Sean Haney. You know, we'll talk about U.S.-Canada relationship. How, you know, how heavy, how heavy can that get? It's going to be a great interview. I can't wait to talk to Sean once again. Sean Haney, of course, the Alberta Breeze. So stick around for the rest of the week. We've got lots to share with you, uh, lots of great conversations that we're about to have, and we certainly appreciate you checking in. Jed Sidwell, back first thing in the morning to get you ready for the day. And as I said, Bill Bullard will be with us tomorrow from our CAF. Thanks for being here, everybody. Hang in there, Egg Squawk.
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